Hi all,
Inside today’s main piece I begin my look ahead to the weekend’s big race action. Plus, there a preview of the big race at Kempton this evening and selection from Musselburgh.
In A Land Down Under
Willie Mullins search for Melbourne Gold Cup winner goes on. The ground was quick at Flemington for the “race that’s stops a nation”. Favourite Vauban was in a good position but in a race run at pace that turned the contest into a solid stamina test he faded away between the final two furlongs. I think the ground was too quick for the 5-year-old and he didn’t stay a strongly run 2m at this level. Stablemate Absurde took it up 2f out but was a sitting duck for the closers but finished a respectable 7th.
The soft ground went against Without A Fight 12 months ago. However, underfoot conditions were ideal for the 6-year-old on Tuesday. He had a perfect position in midfield, and you could see how well he was travelling coming in to the straight. He took up 1f out and was not for catching at that point.
Soulcombe missed the start again and didn’t get the best of runs 3f out which cost him more. He ended up covering far more ground than the winner. It’s a case of what might have been for connections. He’ll be back next year I have no doubt.
Third home Sheraz was another who didn’t get quite get the splits in the straight but wasn’t as inconvenienced as the runner-up.
As for the rest…
Stablemates Asrun (4th) and Interpretation (6th) found trouble in running 2f out, but both hit the line strongly.
As I had predicted Daqiansweet Junior ran on into the places to take 5th. He didn’t have the pace of the front three in the final stages, but he got the race run to suit. He had a better passage than some who finished around him and was ridden to hit the money once more. If you took the 100/1 (each way) with the English based bookmakers or backed him on the place only market, you will have been delighted with his performance.
Hollie Doyle got a good spin on Future History. He was ridden up with the pace but didn’t get home. The Japanese challenger Breakup could never get involved from the rear and looked slow. Last year’s winner Gold Trip was a big disappointment. He probably found the ground too lively for his liking.
Melbourne Cup Verdict:
I set my alarm for 3am to watch the race in anticipation of a good result. It wasn’t to be for my two win picks although Absurde ran a cracker. Three of the first five including the winner were on my shortlist which was pleasing enough.
All in all, a good race to watch. The winner showed he’s a classy stayer on quick ground and got the perfect passage, travelling beautifully, in a well-run race. The same can’t be said of some of his rivals. Whose connections will be thinking. “What if”?
As an old Aussie tipster of my acquaintance said,
“Concentrate on the top seven in the handicap and you won’t go far wrong”.
Class will out on a sound surface in a race like the Melbourne Cup and he wasn’t wrong this year.
Finally. Here’s an interesting footnote on the race from the BBC website.
They couldn’t just report on the race. They had to end the pieced with the following line.
“But in recent years it has attracted demonstrations over the welfare of animals and its links to gambling”.
No idea who wrote the piece but a horse race with links to gambling who would have guessed. 😂
On a more serious note, they just weren’t highlighting the horse welfare issues but had a pop at gambling too. Soon having a bet on the horses will be seen as socially unacceptable as drink driving. You must wonder how long a brand like Lexus will be involved with the race. I fear the Zeitgeist is very much against us.
Whilst on the matter of gambling. If you haven’t already seen it, I would urge you to read this piece by Matt Bisogno at Geegeez.
It’s an excellent read and dovetails almost entirely with my thoughts on the subject.
Looking Ahead To The Weekend – Part 1
The big race action gets underway on Friday.
Down Royal's rearranged two-day meeting gets under way with a couple of Grade 3s contests.
This side of the Irish Sea It’s Exeter’s biggest race of the season Betway Haldon Gold Cup Handicap Chase (3.30). Editeur Du Gite headed the weights at the final confirmation stage and ‘Mouse’ Morris could bring over Indiana Jones.
On Saturday Top novice chaser Gerri Colombe is set to make his seasonal return in the rescheduled Grade 1 Ladbrokes Champion Chase (2:35) at Down Royal.
There’s two big handicap chases this side of the Irish Sea on Saturday. The Grand National fences are in action for the first time this season in the BoyleSports Grand Sefton Handicap Chase (2.45). Down at Wincanton it’s the Somerset track’s most valuable race of the season the Badger Beer Handicap Chase (3.00).
The November Handicap (1.30) takes place at Newcastle rather than Doncaster this Saturday. Maybe the old race has a found a new home. I do hope so. As it would mean the flat season has ended two weeks earlier which of course it should.
There are also good cards at Sandown and Naas on Sunday.
It’s a ten race programme of live races on ITV4 this Saturday with the ITV racing covering the best of the action from Aintree, Wincanton, and Doncaster.
I will look at one of Saturday’s big races in Thursday’s column.
Wednesday Preview
The best of the action is once again at Kempton today. The feature race is the London Sprint Series Final Handicap (7.00) which has £80,000 in guaranteed prize money and has attracted a maximum field of 12.
Kempton
7:00 – Unibet London Sprint Series (Final) Handicap – 6f
Top weight Prop Forward won a series qualifier over C&D in April before finishing 3rd of 6 at Goodwood in May. First run for 187 days but his last two wins have come off breaks of 251 days and 213 days, so he’s probably best caught fresh. Better on the all-weather than turf and will take the beating if at his best.
Fresh was 4 ¼ length 5th of 12 to Prop Forward in April but that was he’s first run for 117 days and he’s 9lb better of here. Hasn’t been operating at his best on turf this season but he’s down to a handy mark and the gets addition of the first time cheekpieces. Big chance back to his best albeit stall 11 isn’t ideal.
Aramis Grey’s C&D form line is 11222. The latest of those wins came here in November and she finished a head 2ndof 12 in last year’s race, from 3lb lower. Comes into the race in good form and if she gets a good pace to chase, won’t be far away.
Baldomero is on a losing run of 19 that goes back to March 2022 but three of his best four RPR’s have come in 2023. The 5-year-old returned from a 151 day break to finish a 1 ¾ length 3rd of 9 to William Twee 7 days ago. Will be sharper here and the cheekpieces return and looks competitively weighted.
Verdict:
Prop Forward has a good draw in stall 5 and is the one to beat for an inform yard. His odds reflect his chance. Fresh has a wider draw to contend with but the first time cheekpieces makes him of interest and he’s on a good mark if the headgear has the desired effect. Baldomero will be sharper for last week’s C&D effort and the cheekpieces return.
Wednesday Selection:
Another winning selection on Tuesday courtesy of Safety Catch (7/1) at Lingfield. It wasn’t a selection you could find in the form book as she had plenty to find on ratings. You were relying on the trainer’s record in the race and the likelihood that the lightly raced filly was capable of plenty of progress. She made the improvement needed and can do even better next season as a 4-year-old.
Musselburgh
3:25 – I’m changing codes today as I go in search of a hatrick of naps. Fidelio Vallis developed into a useful handicap chaser in the spring of 2021 when trained by Paul Nicholls. He was returning from a 14 month lay off when a 4 ¼ length 2nd of 8 to Pay The Piper over C&D in February. That was the 8-year-old’s first start for Harry Derham, and he returns for the first time. He should should get an uncontested lead and will be tough to pass. The 2/1 available looks fair enough to this pundit and if you can beat that even better.
Fidelio Vallis – 9/4.
Good luck with your Wednesday bets.
John
The November Hcap used to be a really good race and one that I had a pretty good record in.
Like so many over the years, it has gone badly down hill and Saturday’s field is just about the poorest it has ever been.
I hate the path that racing has taken over the last 30 yrs or so.
Poor fields, rubbish prize money, jockeys way too far up their own backsides, betting shops on the skids
(no banter and fun anymore) good flat horses only running a handful of times, good jumpers with only the festival in mind, online betting controlling your stakes, govenment thinking they have a right to control you (they can f…k right off) jump races turning into flat races, whip rules and fines that we all know are a joke, stewards who don’t know their a….s from their elbows and make the most diabolical decisions ever (absolute idiots) starters who have no brains and must abide by strict rules instead of using common sense, huge runner maiden Irish hurdle races whereby 75% of the runners are aloud to run to gain a handicap mark only and not to the best of their ability (the Irish starters let the wasters start 50 yds behind the rest of the field) etc…etc…getting bored with it all now, but you get my drift.
Aloud?….allowed
Well said Henryk you forget poor attendances and clueless racegoers wich all of want to get drunk I’m amazed anyone wants to bother with it