Hi all,
Inside today’s main piece I preview today’s Grade 1 at Naas.
Winter Is Coming
Make the most of this weekend’s jumps racing because the UK looks to be heading for an Arctic blast. There could even be snow and the Norwegian Weather App I consult has temperatures not getting much above zero during the day.
Various Clerks of the Courses are getting concerned as this Racing Post article points out.
If the more pessimistic weather forecast prevails it’s hard to see next weekend’s racing at Ascot, Haydock and the jumps cards at Lingfield’s Winter Million Horse Racing Festival taking place. It looks like we can look forward to the delights of Jumpers' Bumpers cards on the all-weather tracks.
For now, let’s look forward to the weekend’s action which should be on.
You Learn More from Your Losers Than Your Winners.
I might have lost a couple of points on yesterday’s North Yorkshire Grand National but I’m content. There are positives for me to take from the race. I was happy with my pre-race analysis, and lessons learnt.
On a cold day and miserable day at Catterick we got to see a fascinating North Yorkshire Grand National won by Track And Trace.
In the end I dutched Court At Slip and Ladronne. The first named ran well to finish third and just wasn’t as well handicapped as the two horses that finished in front.
In Ladronne’s case he didn’t stay pure and simple. I took a chance with him on the stamina front. However, I ignored the inner voice that said, ‘beware horses attempting distances too far’. Average horses perform best within a specific distance range and Ladronne doesn’t stay beyond 3m 2f.
As for the winner I had highlighted his potential in the race preview stating, “He shaped like a stayer last time and is unexposed over fences”. In retrospect, I realise I didn't adequately consider his recent performance at Carlisle. It's noteworthy that the winner triumphed once more on Tuesday, and the third-placed horse secured a victory at Doncaster on Wednesday, affirming that the form from the previous race was indeed proving to be reliable.
In summary: The race unfolded as anticipated. I felt content with my analysis and was particularly satisfied with the performance of Court At Slip, one of my chosen selections. However, Ladronne proved to be a less-than-ideal selection, struggling with the significant increase in distance. Reflecting on the winner, I recognize that I should have given greater weight to the form of his prior race. Nevertheless, even with this consideration, the odds were still too short to warrant a bet.
Friday Preview
Friday’s highlight is the Grade 1 Lawlors Of Naas Novice Hurdle (1:42) at Naas. The race was due to be run last Sunday but the meeting was abandoned due to fog.
Naas
1:42 – If the bookies are right this is between Firefox and Ile Atlantique. Firefox, a three-time bumper winner, made all to make a winning hurdle debut at Fairyhouse last month. In the process he beat the useful Ballyburn who has since gone on to win at Leopardstown over Christmas. Big chance here and looks like a Grade 1 novice hurdler. I’m a bit surprised he’s not shorter in the betting, but his price reflects slight doubts about is stamina for the trip on testing ground.
Ile Atlantique, a stablemate of Ballyburn also made all to win a Gowran maiden hurdle (2m) 57 days ago. Today’s longer trip is expected to elicit more improvement from the 6-year-old. He was beaten ¾ length by Firefox in bumper in the spring and there shouldn’t be much between the pair once more.
Croke Park, a stablemate of Firefox, made it 2-2 over hurdles when winning a Grade 3 novice hurdle at Navan (2m 4f) last time. His stamina is guaranteed and it looks like he’ll been seen to better effect over even further. The more testing the ground the better for the 6-year-old and he’s not totally ruled out.
An Tobar a winner on hurdle debut at Fairyhouse, before finishing a 2 ¾ lengths 3rd of 8 to Farren Glory in the Grade 1 Royal Bond Novices' Hurdle (2m) back at that venue last month. He looked in need of further than 2m last time and is open to further improvement up to 2m 4f.
Lawlors Verdict:
I think Firefox could be Gordon Elliott’s best novice hurdler. The step up to 2m 4f is a slight concern but the ground shouldn’t be as testing as it would have been on Sunday. Of the front two in the betting, he’s the pick. An Tobar could be the value play but I would want at least 7/1 to be a player.
Good luck with your Friday bets.
John