Hi all,
Inside today’s main piece, I’m continuing my look ahead at the Weekend’s big race action. Plus, you can read more of my thoughts on narrowing down the field of a handicap race. Oh and there's a selection from what could be an informative Newbury card.
Narrowing The Field: A Three Step Approach
Narrowing the field, no I’m not taking about Ben Aitken’s excellent blog of the same name. No, I’m going to show you how you can narrow the field down to shortlist of possible selections for further form study.
Here are my simple three stage approach for shortlisting contenders in handicap races.
Step 1:
Take the top three in the weights, it could be more depending on the size of the field. In a race like the Grand National I would extend it to the top seven in the weights.
The top weights are considered by the official handicapper to be the best horses in the race and are automatically on my short list for further study.
Step 2:
Look at the bottom three (maybe 4) in the weights. Look out for any horses that won or finished second last time out or have dropped below their last winning mark. If there are any qualifiers, they are automatically added to the short list.
Step 3:
Look for any runners from yards who’ve won the race in the past ten years or had a winner at the corresponding meeting 12 months previously.
Keep it simple…
The above is a simple and quick way to narrow down the field of runners for any handicap race.
Punters often tend to overcomplicate things when it comes to analysing a race, I’ve been as guilty as any of it, leading to information overload.
They say you can’t have too much information. I think you can, and studies have shown that too more information doesn’t equate to better performance or decision making, indeed it can lead to worse.
As much information as possible is merely a comfort blanket and a simpler approach is just as likely to pay off in the long term.
Of course, finding the qualifiers is the easy bit. The hard work is just beginning because you must study the form of each qualifier to see if there’s a suitable betting opportunity.
Personally, I would want to go through each of the qualifiers form. However, if you haven’t got the time to do that. You could do worse than see if any of your shortlist are within 3lb of the Top-Rated on Racing Post Ratings or Timeform Ratings. The obvious pick is the only horse not excluded. When more than one qualifier remains the one which is highest rated on the Racing Post Ratings or Timeform ratings would be the choice. As I say this method wouldn’t suit me and I have no idea how such an approach has fared but for anyone strapped for time its another potential shortcut to use.
Whichever approach you use you won’t find the winner of every handicap but with practice you will find plenty and some of them will be at tasty prices.
I will look at non-handicap races next Thursday’s column.
Looking Ahead To The Weekend – Part 2
The winter jumps season is now hitting top gear and this Saturday we have two top handicap chases to look forward to.
The highlight of the racing at Aintree on Saturday is the Boylesports sponsored Grand Sefton Handicap Chase (2:45) which sees the Grand National fences in action for the first time this season.
Down at Wincanton it’s the 62nd running of the Badger Beer Handicap Chase (2:25) one most of the prestigious races run at Wincanton during the year. The race is for me the highpoint of what is being called ‘West Country Weekend’ which gets underway at Exeter on Friday with the Grade Two Betway Haldon Gold Cup Handicap Chase.
It’s the latter race that I’m putting under the big race microscope this week.
Wincanton: Badger Beers Handicap Chase
The Badger Beers Handicap is the betting highlight of a seven race that also includes the Grade 2 Boodles ‘Rising Stars' Novices' Chase (1:50) and the Grade 2 West Country Weekend Elite Hurdle (3:00).
It’s now jump racing’s longest-running sponsored contest. Run over 3m 1f the race has £41,608 on offer to the winner and sixteen were left in at Monday’s final confirmation stage.
Race Trends:
Taking a quick delve into the trends which contain – 15 winners from 201 runners, 48 placed.
Top Seven in the weights are 11 winners from 109 runners 27 placed.
% of rivals beaten last race: 67% to 100% – 11 winners from 97 runners 26 placed.
Paul Nicholls has been the best performing trainer since 2008 with 7 winners from 32 runners +15, 13 placed.
Fourteen of the last 15 winners were returned 16/1 & under. Horses returned 18/1 & bigger are 1 winner from 62 runners, 5 placed (Rocco won at 40/1 in 2021).
Horses aged 10 & older are 1 winner from 25 runners, 5 placed. Last year’s winner Frodon became the first horse older than 10 to win the race since Flaked Oats won the race for the second time in 2000.
Can Frodon Defend His Crown?
Frodon last year’s winner looks set to defend his crown. The 10-year-old who is likely to be in his final season before retirement from racing carried top weight to success 12 months on his seasonal return. He’s got a great record fresh. Five wins from 7 runs +12.69 when returning from a 121 to 365 day layoff. He’s back down to last year’s winning mark and trainer will have primed him for this race. This is his day and although it will likely be much softer last year he goes on such ground. He was returned 9/4 favourite last year and the 7/2 available with William Hill looks fair value to me.
Other contenders:
Frodon’s stablemate Threeunderthrufive is just ahead of him in the ante post betting. Threeunderthrufive is having his first start since finishing a 6 ¼ length 4th of 18 in the Scottish Grand National. The 8-year-old has undergone wind surgery over the summer and is likely a bit better than his current mark.
Dusart a useful novice handicap chaser two season back winning a valuable handicap chase at Ayr in April 2022. He didn’t really fire on three starts last season. However, he wasn’t running too badly when brought down at the 19th in the Scottish Grand National. Has a question mark hanging over him. But if Nicky Henderson can get him right this season a mark of 154 remains workable.
The Big Breakaway started last season in good form and finished a 1 ¼ length 2nd of 17 in the Welsh Grand National. The softer the ground the better for the 8-year-old. He has to be respected on his seasonal return for a yard among the winners.
Trainer Anthony Honeyball has four of the 16 entries. I like both Sam Brown and Blackjack Magic. The first named was in the lead and travelling best in the first time blinkers before falling two out in a handicap chase at the Punchestown Festival. He can go well fresh and would be on the shortlist if turning out here. Blackjack Magic is three years younger than his stablemate and has only had four starts over fences. He jumped well out in front when winning at Uttoxeter in April and is just 4lb higher here. Would have a nice light weight here. However, all his four career wins have come on soft/heavy going so drying ground would be a slight concern.
Badger Beer Handicap Chase Verdict:
Not the best of turnouts and the race could cut up even more before today’s final declarations.
If Bryony Frost can get Frodon into a good jumping rhythm I think he can beat his frustrating stablemate Threeunderthrufive.
I will be keeping a close on what Anthony Honeyball runs and I particularly like Sam Brown and Blackjack Magic. If the going is genuinely soft or worse, I can see the latter going well and the 16/1 available with William Hill makes plenty of appeal each way if you knew he was an intended runner.
Dusart and The Big Breakway could both win this on a going day.
Thursday Preview
The feature race on Thursday is the Grade 2 Clonmel Oil Chase (2:50) at Clonmel. Just the four are set to go to post but they include double Ryanair Chase winner Allaho. The 9-year-old returns to the track for the first time since winning a Grade 1 (3m) at the 2022 Punchestown Festival. If he’s retained most of his old ability. He should be able to see of stablemate Janidil and his biggest rival could turn out be French Dynamite. The class horse at his best but after problems with his spleen I can happily sit this one out.
The bookies couldn’t split Allegorie De Vassy, Instit and Maskada in the early bird betting for the Listed T.A. Morris Memorial Irish EBF Mares Chase (2:15). It could prove to be fascinating race Paul Townend has seemingly opted for Allegorie De Vassy who won first up last season. Her stablemate Instit beat her comfortably at Fairyhouse but that came after Allegorie De Vassy had a hard race at the Cheltenham Festival. Get’s 11lb from her stablemate and that brings her very much into things.
Maskada won the Grand Annual Handicap Chase at the Cheltenham Festival. Due to the conditions of the race she gets 10lb from Allegorie De Vassy which could make all the difference.
There’s a decent enough card at Newbury this afternoon for its first jumps meeting of the season. It should be an entertaining and informative card. The going on Wednesday afternoon was being described as good to soft which is much softer than 12 months ago when it was closer to good to firm.
There are four handicaps on the card and three of them look ideal for the approach that I outlined at the beginning of the main piece.
Thursday Selection:
The winning run came to an end yesterday. It was ironic that shortest priced of this week’s naps Fidelio Vallis got turned over at Musselburgh.
I’m off to Newbury for today’s selection which goes in the novices handicap chase (1:15) and he’s not in the top three in the weights.
Newbury
1:15 – Theatre Man improved with each of his four starts over hurdles last season. Jumped well over the smaller obstacles and is bred to be even better over fences. Hopefully will be handily positioned in a race which doesn’t look like it will be strongly run. I think he can win races over fences this winter and hopefully he can do it at the first time of asking. His forecast odds of 8/1 look fair enough to me.
Theatre Man.
Good luck with your Thursday bets.
John