Nassau Stakes: Don’t Rule Out an Upset

Hi all,

We’re already onto Day 3 of Glorious Goodwood. Inside today’s main piece you can read my thoughts on the Group 1 Nassau Stakes.

It was a frustrating afternoon at Glorious Goodwood with three placed runners but no winners. Thankfully, the best was saved for last.

Western Fold, advised to Victor Value subscribers at 22/1 for the Galway Plate on Wednesday morning, landed the big one in style and turned it into a profitable day.

If you’d like to get involved, you can get all my picks for the next three days for just £9.99 here.

My selections have already been sent out to subscribers and there’s some nice prices among them.

Kingscote Exposes Tactical Errors in Sussex Stakes

Well how do you explain the result of the Sussex Stakes?

It all unravelled from the start. Serengeti, Henri Matisse’s pacemaker, fluffed the break — and the pantomime began. He was soon rushed up to join the pace, eventually taking it up from Field Of Gold’s pacemaker, Qirat.

Credit to Richard Kingscote aboard Qirat. When Serengeti swept past, Kingscote sensibly took a pull and let him go on. That energy saved proved vital late on, as Qirat the 150/1 outsider clung on for the win.

They didn’t go fast early. And the big names — Rosallion, Henri Matisse, and Field Of Gold — gave the leaders far too much rope. Those tactics left them with too much ground to make up.

True to form, there was no stewards' enquiry. Even Jason Weaver on ITV Racing said there should have been one. If it had been an apprentice race, the stewards would’ve pulled the riders in for a word about why the leaders were allowed to get away.

Yes, Ryan Moore, Sean Levey, and William Buick got it badly wrong. But let’s give Kingscote full credit — he rode the perfect race, judged the pace superbly, and nailed the fractions.

Qatar Goodwood Festival – Day 3

It’s the turn of the fillies to take centre stage on Thursday, with the Group 1 Nassau Stakes (3:05) the best race of the meeting for me. Two other pattern races support the card. The Group 2 Richmond Stakes (1:55) brings together some exciting 2-year-olds. Then it’s the Group 3 Gordon Stakes (2:30) – won last year by Jan Brueghel, who went on to land the St Leger. There could be another St Leger contender lurking in this year’s race.

Over in Ireland, it’s Day 4 of the Galway Festival. The action switches to the afternoon, and the feature is the Guinness Galway Hurdle Handicap (4:30). With €159,300 to the winner, it’s Europe’s richest handicap hurdle and always fiercely contested.

ITV Racing are once again covering the first five races live from Goodwood.

Here are my thoughts on the Nassau Stakes.

3:05 – Qatar Nassau Stakes (Group 1) – 1m 2f

Just five line-up for a fascinating renewal of this Group 1.

Whirl, runner-up in the Oaks, went one better in the Pretty Polly Stakes (1m2f) at the Curragh, seeing off Kalpana in style. She made all that day and if Ryan Moore gets a soft lead again, she’ll be hard to pass. It’ll be interesting to see if outsider Running Lion forces the pace early.

Last year’s Nassau Stakes runner-up See The Fire comes here off a good third to Ombudsman in the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes at Royal Ascot. She’s still chasing that elusive Group 1 win, but this looks a great opening. She needs good or quicker ground and is the one to beat if she gets her underfoot conditions.

Bedtime Story, a stablemate of Whirl, posted a career best when second in the Prix Diane (French Oaks). She stayed the trip, settling well, having been dropped in from from her wide draw. If she settles in today’s smaller field, she has a serious chance.

Cercene sprang a 33/1 surprise in the Group 1 Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot, digging deep to win. She steps up to 1m2f for the first time, which is a question mark. There’s speed on the dam’s side, but she’s by a Derby winner in Australia, so the trip could suit. If she stays, she can upset some better fancied rivals once more.

I am not around tomorrow so there won't be a Friday column. I'll be back on Saturday for the the final day of Glorious Goodwood.

Good luck with your Goodwood and Galway bets.

John