Hi all,
Inside today’s main piece, I’ve shared a jockey change angle that you may find interesting, along with five National Hunt horses currently in my tracker.
With Champions Day done and dusted for another year, it’s that time when I start clearing out my tracker Flat horses to focus on the jumps. A few on the Flat may still run before season’s end, but for all intents and purposes, that’s the Flat wrapped up as far as the tracker’s concerned.
I’ve got five NH horses noted for now. That number will grow over the coming months and all of them will feature in Tuesday’s column, so keep an eye out for those.
National Hunt Tracker Horses
Ask Brewster (Evan Williams)
I added the six-year-old after his handicap chase win at the Welsh Racing Festival last weekend. He’s an improving staying handicap chaser who handles a sound surface well, and I suspect he’ll be kept away from the testing winter ground.
Storm Heart (Willie Mullins)
Storm Heart went into the tracker after finishing a length second of 18 to Mclaurey in a Listed handicap hurdle at Leopardstown in February. That was an improved performance from the five-year-old on his handicap debut. He goes well fresh, and I think there’s a nice pot in him this season.
Jimmy Du Seuil (Willie Mullins)
Returned from a ten-month absence to run out a three-length winner of the Coral Cup at the Cheltenham Festival. The manner of that success suggests the six-year-old is capable of better this season. He should stay three miles and could emerge as a contender for the top staying hurdle contests this winter. However, he could go over fences, and I notice that Tom Segal has put him up ante post for the Brown Advisory Novices' Chase. He’s on to follow despite that.
Derryhassen Paddy (Lucinda Russell & Michael Scudamore)
Derryhassen Paddy will have gone into plenty of trackers after his seven-length third of 20 to Jasmin de Vaux in the Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival. He’s going over fences now and could turn out to be one of the leading novice chasers this season if he takes to the larger obstacles – which he’s bred to do. Likely to be at his best on soft ground.
Alan De Banks (Mickey Bowen)
He went into the tracker back in January after shaping well on handicap debut when a 2½-length runner-up to the well-ridden Up For Parol in a 3m handicap hurdle at Ffos Las. We haven’t seen him since. He improved for the step up to three miles last time and looks capable of landing a handicap hurdle off a mark of 117.
There are no National Hunt horses for the tracker this week. However, with Cheltenham returning on Friday and Saturday I’m expecting one or two next week.
Jockey Changes
Horse racing punters love to talk about jockeys. Good or bad rides are debated endlessly on social media, and jockey statistics are often used to identify who’s performing best. When a big name like Ryan Moore, Oisin Murphy, or Sean Bowen is booked, punters sit up and take notice, especially if that jockey wasn’t on the horse last time.
If you analyse enough races, you’ll find plenty of negative examples of jockey changes. A jockey with a 25% strike rate at a track rides a winner, only to be replaced next time by someone with a 5% record. Or a horse goes from a rider with a 30% strike rate to one who’s lost 70 consecutive races. Those are all legitimate reasons to avoid a bet.
However, there are also positive reasons to back a horse because of a jockey change.
With the jumps season about to hit top gear, I decided to delve into Horseracebase to find some.
It’s a simple angle focusing on jockeys in handicap chases, and it has produced the following results.
But given the average odds, I think you can ride them out comfortably.
At a 24%-win strike rate, the longest losing run (95% confidence) ≈ 15–20 bets.
So, who are the jockeys you should be concentrating on? Well, I won’t be revealing that just yet — for obvious reasons. But if you want access to the qualifiers over the winter, you can do so by joining my Victor Value service here.
Quick summary:
The system is highly profitable to SP and Betfair SP.
A Win rate of 24% with ROI (BF) at 85.5% is excellent.
A/E > 1.5 and Chi > 16 both suggest the results are statistically significant and not random.
BF A/E of 1.73 confirms stronger edge at Betfair SP.
Max win odds 23.0 shows the profit isn’t driven solely by one big-priced winner.
If you decide to join, I’ll share my full staking plan and detailed notes. I’d also suggest staying on board until the end of March to get the full benefit of the system. This isn’t a get-rich-quick setup – it’s designed to deliver steady, sustainable profit over time.
Tuesday Racing
A good start to the week as Sophia’s Starlight made all to win at Pontefract, with Stormy Impact chasing her home. A tidy Exacta for anyone who played that angle.
Attention switches to the Curragh on Tuesday, where big fields and testing ground await. The Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Amateur Riders Derby (4:25) is one of the highlights, attracting 15 runners.
Layfayette isn’t the force of old, but he drops in class and could go close if lasting the 1m4f trip on heavy ground. His yard also won this race in 2023.
Last year’s winner Smooth Tom returns. He’s effective on yielding ground and should be in the mix again, though his trainer has said he prefers smaller fields.
Sirius, winner of the Galway Festival amateur riders’ handicap (2m1f) last year, is another to note. He shaped as if needing the run in the Irish Cesarewitch 23 days ago and will be fitter now. The shorter trip isn’t ideal, but his stamina will be an asset in the conditions. Trainer Willie Mullins has won this race twice in the past decade, so he knows what’s required.
Good luck with your Tuesday bets.
John