Hi all,
Grade 1 action takes centre stage at Ascot, where last year’s winner Pic D'Orhy clashes with runner-up L'Homme Presse in the £175,000 Betfair Ascot Chase (3:37).
Ascot’s undercard includes the Reynoldstown Novices' Chase (1:50) and valuable the Swinley Handicap Chase (3:00).
The Oddschecker Grand National Trial Handicap Chase (3:15) headlines Haydock’s card, while Haydock also hosts two Grade 2 races—the Rendlesham Hurdle (2:40) and the Prestige Novices' Hurdle (3:50).
Over at Wincanton, the Grade 2 Kingwell Hurdle (1:36), is the feature race. Recent Windsor scorer and last year’s winner Nemean Lion faces a couple of tough rivals in Burdett Road and Golden Ace.
The Kingwell Hurdle plus five from Ascot and three from Haydock are live on ITV Racing on Saturday afternoon.
On Sunday, Punchestown stages another Grand National Trial (3:10) over 3m 3f.
Haydock’s Grand National Trial
The Grand National Trial Handicap Chase is a Premier Handicap run over 3m 4½f at Haydock every February. It was once a key prep for Aintree’s big race, but its influence has faded in recent years.
Since 2000, 83 runners have gone from this race to the Grand National, producing two winners and seven placings. Winning at Haydock hasn’t been a great omen either—10 winners have tackled Aintree’s test, but none have won. The last horse from this race to win the National was in 2012, and the last to place was in 2017.
For me, it’s no longer a true Grand National trial, but it remains a high-quality race in its own right.
Ten-Year Trends
Here’s a look at the key trends.
Chase wins: No more than four (10/10)
9/10 had between 2-4 chase wins – last year’s winner, Yeah Man, was a maiden over fences).
Official Rating: Between 136-149 (9/10) – last year’s winner, Yeah Man, was rated 133.
Age: Between 8-11 (9/10) – Yeah Man was a 7yo.
Runs beyond 3m4½f: No more than two (9/10)
Won a race between 3m 2f & 3m 5f (8/10).
Odds: SP of 8/1 or shorter (8/10) – Two winners bucked the trend at 18/1 (2023) and 33/1 (2020).
Weight: Six of the last 10 winners carried between 11st 4lb – 11st 8lb (6/29, 21% strike rate, +33.5 A/E=1.81).
Trends Verdict
Trends can be broken, as Yeah Man proved last year. The key ones to note:
Aged 8-11
No more than four chase wins
Rated 136-149
No more than two runs beyond 3m 4½f.
Contenders
The last 10 renewals have averaged 11 runners. At Monday’s final confirmation stage, 14 remained, so we could see a single-digit field on the day.
Val Dancer and Jubilee Express, first and second in the Welsh Grand National, are vying for favouritism. Chepstow runner-up Jubilee Express is the slight favourite, but Val Dancer could well confirm placings.
Royale Pagaille tops the weights. If he runs, he’ll compress the handicap, leaving just four rivals, including stablemate Fontaine Collonges, running off their true mark. Royale Pagaille was poor here last time but must be respected at Haydock. Fontaine Collonges, a dual course winner, flopped in this race two years ago.
Yeah Man returns 11lb higher as he bids for back-to-back wins. If Royale Pagaille runs, Galia Des Liteaux would be on a handy weight and has threatened to land a staying chase like this.
Famous Bridge was travelling well before unseating in last year’s race and is 3lb lower this time. A dual course winner, he relishes soft ground. Iron Bridge is frustrating but has talent. He finished third last year and is 15lb better off with Yeah Man.
Git Maker and Apple Away are lively contenders. Git Maker stays well and was third in last season’s Scottish National. Apple Away has often shaped like she was a staying handicap chaser.
Sine Nomine, winner of last season’s Cheltenham Festival Hunters' Chase, enjoys left-handed tracks. A mark of 133 is fair, nothing more, but 3m 4f could bring about more improvement. However, if Royale Pagaille runs, she’d be 5lb out of the handicap.
Grand National Trial 2024 Verdict
It’s likely to be a small field but a competitive one. If Royale Pagaille is declared, it helps his stablemate Fontaine Collonges. Yeah Man faces a tougher task this time, but Gavin Cromwell’s runners are always dangerous. Famous Bridge looks solid, while Iron Bridge is well-handicapped if he’s on a going day. At a bigger price, Sine Nomine is an interesting outsider, despite being out of the weights.
More big race previews can be found in Thursday’s column.
Good luck with your Wednesday bets.
John