Hi all,
Inside today’s main piece, I’ve highlighted two future winners from the festive racing action.
I’m hoping for more luck in the New Year than over Christmas. I lost count of how many placed horses. Still, the racing was excellent—at least what we could see through the fog.
Finally, I sense the British could be more competitive in the Cheltenham Festival Grade 1s this season. Or am I being overly optimistic?
Looking ahead, Cheltenham’s New Year’s Day card is shaping up nicely. However, rain is forecast to arrive just in time to complicate matters. With all horses declared on good ground, a significant change in the going could lead to a spate of non-runners. Perfect timing, isn’t it? ☹️
Future Winners
Newbury (Saturday)
Spirit d'Aunou (Gary & Josh Moore)
Spirit d'Aunou shaped well when finishing 4th of 11 in a 2m 4½f handicap hurdle. The first-time cheekpieces seemed to work, and he looks like he’s working towards peak fitness. Likely to have dropped below his last winning mark after this run, he’s one to keep onside in the coming weeks.
Paul Nicholls' horses didn’t shine over Christmas, but Brave Kingdom caught the eye with a solid 3rd in the Mandarin Handicap Chase (3m 2f). off for 315 days, he was keen early, but jumped well, and only faded late on. He probably needed the run, would prefer softer ground, and may be better suited to a drop back to 3m.
The Mandarin winner, Henry’s Friend, stayed on powerfully and looks one who can improve further when stepped up to marathon trips.
Leopardstown
Jeannot Lapin sprang a 150/1 surprise in a 2m 1f beginners’ chase on Friday. There was no fluke about his win—he’s a massive, old-fashioned chaser who could have a bright future if kept sound.
Maxxum (Gordon Elliott)
Maxxum ran a big race to finish 4th in the Neville Hotels Premier Handicap Hurdle (2m 4f) on Sunday. Back in handicap company for the first time this season, this was a strong effort over a trip short of his best. He thrives in big fields and should be primed for the 3m handicap hurdle at the Dublin Racing Festival, which he won last year.
Tuesday Racing
The best of the New Year’s Eve action comes from the all-weather at Lingfield.
The feature race is the BetUK Quebec Stakes (1:44), a Listed contest over 1m 2f. Earlier on the card, there’s a cracking Class 2 sprint handicap (1:14) to look forward to, featuring some consistent performers on the artificial surface.
A couple of weeks ago, I highlighted a profitable angle opposing David Maxwell short-priced horses. Here’s a quick reminder of the angle.
I've been waiting for a qualifier, and there could be one on Tuesday at Warwick: Jatiluwih (2:20). While well-handicapped and the yard is in tremendous form. He hasn’t won in four years and holds a poor record over 2m 7f+ (0-13, 2 places).
He’s only a lay at 4/1 or shorter.
Hopefully, some of you were on Saint Xavier in Haydock’s Last Fling Handicap Chase. I wasn’t planning to bet at Haydock on Monday, but I couldn’t resist the 9/1 on the 12-year-old. I also laid favourite Montgomery at 13/8. While he had obvious claims, I had him priced at 5/2 on my tissue, so the 13/8 on offer was poor value.
Now onto Tuesday. The best action comes from Lingfield’s all-weather card, with the BetUK Quebec Stakes (1:44) as the feature. Earlier, there’s a competitive Class 2 sprint handicap (1:14) to dig into.
Lingfield
1:14 – Sprint Handicap (Class 2) – 5f
Bedford Flyer: A dual C&D winner, he returned to form when beaten a nose at Southwell 11 days ago. Up 2lb but remains well-handicapped on old form. If he reproduces that effort, he’s a big player.
Kylian: Won at Newcastle two starts back and followed up with a solid second at Southwell 21 days ago. Up 1lb but may find Lingfield’s sharp 5f less to his liking than Newcastle.
Existent: Consistent but on a long losing run dating back to February 2022. Beaten a head at Wolverhampton 4 days ago, and Jack Doughty’s 3lb claim helps. Needs to avoid being held up too far back.
Sommelier: A ‘cliff horse’ for me, as I’ve backed him repeatedly to no avail. I still think he’s on a winnable mark, and the drop to 5f could be ideal. Comes with a wealth warning, but he’s the value play at the weights.
1:44 – BetUK Quebec Stakes (Listed) – 1m 2f
Royal Champion: Officially rated 7lb higher than his closest rival, Pride Of America. Now with Karl Burke after three runs in Australia. If he handles the surface, he’ll be hard to beat.
Pride Of America: The only confirmed front-runner. Below par on his return from a 13-month absence at Newcastle but has had wind surgery. First-time cheekpieces could help, and if he dictates the pace, he’ll be tough to reel in.
Tyrrhenian Sea: Won this race last year and has strong claims again. Returned from a 9-month break when third in a Newcastle listed race 45 days ago. A steadily run race might not suit his running style, but he’s a big player if positioned well.
ITV are back on New Year’s Day covering four races from Cheltenham and two from Musselburgh. In Wednesday's column I’ll be looking at the best of the New Year's Day action.
Good luck your Tuesday bets.
All that’s left is to wish you and yours a peaceful and profitable New Year.
John