New Year’s Day Preview

Hi all,

I'm out at dinner this evening so I wanted to ensure that I share my New Year's Day Preview ahead of time.

In today's main piece, I'll be focusing on the best action of Cheltenham action on New Year's Day.

But before we dive into that, let's take a brief look back at the highlights from Saturday’s action.

Saturday Review

Outside of Newbury’s Grade 1 Challow Hurdle Saturday’s racing was poor. It was one of those few Saturdays when it was difficult to find solid betting opportunities. In all honesty If it hadn’t been a Saturday, I wouldn’t have put up any selections. Mind you that would have meant that I’d have missed out on Henry’s Friend in the lucky last at Newbury and you don’t want to miss 17/2 winners.

The Mandarin Handicap Chase, over the years, has witnessed a decline in prestige. However, this won't be a concern for the connections of Surrey Quest, who emerged victorious in a thrilling finish against Atlanta Brave. The two least exposed among the 11 runners battled it out at the finish line, pulling clear of their rivals in good style.

Captain Teague Clinches Victory in Slow-Motion Finish

The Grade 1 Challow Novices Hurdle produced a slow motion finish. It was attritional stuff in the closing stages.

Captain Teague wasn’t doing anything once hitting the front but grimly held on from long-time leader Lookaway and The Jukebox Man who outran huge odds in third. Johnnywho stayed on best of all to get within 2 lengths of the winner in fourth. Given he hadn’t had the most ideal preparation for the race and was weak in the pre-race betting it was a good effort.

The well fancied Willmount was beaten before they got into the straight and surely ran as if something was amiss.

The winner, who gave trainer Paul Nicholls a fourth successive win in the race, probably needs to be held onto as long as possible as he doesn’t do much in front. I think its more down to residual greenness than anything else. He’s one the best British novice hurdles but not as good as Gidleigh Park though.  If he does head to Cheltenham, it will surely be for the Albert Bartlett. Otherwise, he’ll be chasing Irish shadows.

Jeriko Du Reponet Impresses, Eyes Cheltenham's Supreme Challenge

Earlier on the card I was impressed with Jeriko Du Reponet in winning the ‘Introductory' Hurdle. The 5-year-old who had looked good when winning here on his hurdle debut produced a nice turn of foot to win. There’s no need to step up him up in trip so the Supreme will be his Cheltenham target. He’s now 5/1 for that race and those odds look fair enough to me.

New Year’s Day Preview

ITV Racing are covering five races live from Cheltenham and two from Musselburgh this afternoon.

Cheltenham’s New Year’s Day fixture has traditionally been its best attended fixture outside of the festival. In terms of quality and competitiveness it’s usually the highlight of the day. However, just 49 have been declared for the seven races with just two of them having more than six runners. Granted we’ve just had a week of top class racing but still it’s a disappointing turnout.

On the first day of the ‘Premierisation’ of horse racing, it’s not a great start.

From a betting perspective the all-weather card at Newcastle emerges as a better alternative to Cheltenham, boasting six Class 2 handicaps and a substantial prize pool of £153,651 for a seven-race card. If this was a Saturday card on ITV, we would rightfully be excited about it.

Cheltenham or Newcastle which is the Premier racing card?  I know which is the more appealing to punters.

Across the Irish Sea, at Tramore, the Grade 3 Savills New Year's Day Chase takes centre stage. Classic Getaway, triumphant in his seasonal return at Thurles just 32 days ago, hasn’t been the easiest to keep sound and faces the challenge of proving his capability for a quick turnaround. If he successfully meets this test, I believe he can win this and emerge as a significant contender for the Gold Cup.

Cheltenham

Further rain at Cheltenham means the meeting is likely to get underway with heavy in the going description. The last time that occurred for the New Year’s Day fixture was six years ago.

The ITV action gets underway with the Close Brothers Novices' Limited Handicap Chase (12:55). It looks between last time winners Matata and Libberty Hunter. The latter impressed with his jumping when winning at Wincanton on heavy ground 13 days ago. He’s 10lb higher here but open to further improvement.

Just five are set to go to post for the Paddy Power Handicap Chase (1:30). For a race with £50,000 in guaranteed prize money it’s a dreadful turnout. Inch House bids for the hat trick after two wins at Newbury. He’s now 7lb higher but remains well ahead of the handicapper. Softer ground than last time but he should be fine on it.

Stage Star Leads Six-Runner Field in Paddy Power New Year's Day Handicap Chase

The Paddy Power New Year's Day Handicap Chase (2:05) has £100,000 in guaranteed prize money yet just six have been declared. Paddy Power winner Stage Star heads the betting. He’s now 10lb higher bit given how well he runs Cheltenham he will be tough to beat.  His nearest market rival Richmond Lake is progressive but did have hard race when winning at Haydock 23 days ago. Shakem Up'Arry is another who goes well around here. He ran well for a long way before his stamina ran out from two out when a 19 ½ 6^th of 20 in the Coral Gold Cup at Newbury. He can a win a nice handicap dropped back in trip, but Stage Star is a formidable opponent. If Stage Star is a future Ryanair winner, he wins this of top weight.

Ed Keeper and Butch Leading Contenders in Paddy Power Handicap Hurdle

The Paddy Power Handicap Hurdle (2:40) is a rarity on the card in that there's more than eight runners. Ed Keeper looked an improving staying handicap hurdle when storming to victory in a Pertemps Series qualifier at Newbury last month. He’s got a 9lb rise for his latest win but he’s capable of more improvement and can defy it. Butch won a novice over the distance here on the old course in October and is interesting back in handicap company.

Bob Olinger Emerges as Strong Contender Against Marie’s Rock in Relkeel Hurdle The Grade 2 Dornan Engineering Relkeel Hurdle (3:15) sees just four runners set to meet the starter. Last year’s winner Marie’s Rock bids to retain her crown. On Official Ratings the mare should win but she can be keen in her races and might not settle in a small field with no pace. Strong Leader looks the sole pace angle and should get an uncontested lead but might prefer less testing ground. That leaves Irish challenger Bob Olinger. The 9-year-old looked back to something like his best when winning a Grade 2 at Navan 44 days ago. Two & half miles is his trip, and he goes well on testing ground. I wouldn’t be surprised if he went off favourite ahead of Marie’s Rock.

Cheltenham Verdict:

Most of my fancies are probably too short for me to get involved in betting wise. Bob Olinger is my selection in the Relkeel Hurdle, but I wouldn’t want to get involved at his present odds. Inch House should win the (1:30) but he’s another plenty short enough given he’s unproven at Cheltenham.

Shakem Up'Arry is tempting enough as he’s on a winnable mark, but Stage Star might prove to classy.  I’m loathe to desert Ed Keeper in the 2:30 and although he can make the necessary improvement to defy his new mark off 133 the 3/1 available makes no appeal when he’s 9/2 on my tissue. In the same race Butch is starting to drift out to a backable price.

That leaves just Libberty Hunter but he’s 9/2 on my tissue and is best priced 7/2 in the early bird betting.

As I compose this piece, I haven't delved into the specifics of the Newcastle card. Nevertheless, most of my bets are expected to come from that meeting. It's somewhat surprising that my betting journey for 2024 is set to commence with Newcastle's all-weather card on New Year's Day, especially with the allure of Cheltenham featured on ITV.

Monday Selection:

Cheltenham

12:55 – Libberty Hunter.

In tomorrow's article, I'll reflect on the Christmas action and highlight some future winners.

Good luck with your Monday bets.

John