Hi all,
I have developed a nasty little cough so I took it easy on Thursday. Hopefully the virus will be gone in the next couple of days as I have plenty on this weekend.
It’s Day two of Newcastle’s Northumberland Plate meeting. The highlights of this evening’s racing are the Gosforth Park Sprint Cup Handicap (6:00) and the Group 3 Hoppings Fillies' Stakes (6:35). The Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby Festival gets underway at the Curragh this evening. It’s a seven race card but for a festival the action isn’t of the highest quality. That said there some competitive handicaps on the card that I’m likely to have a go at.
Inside today’s main piece you can read my thoughts on both races.
Northumberland Plate Update:
Nineteen staying handicappers were left in Saturday’s Northumberland Plate. They include the five I gave a favourable mention to in Wednesday column. With final declarations out and stalls allocated I’m adding a couple more to the shortlist for you to consider.
The first is Nathanael Greene (11), a stablemate of ante post favourite Post Impressionist. He hasn’t been disgraced on either start this season without looking a winner in waiting. However, interestingly the cheekpieces that have been left off so far this return on Saturday. His stablemate is open to more improvement in all likelihood, but Nathanael Greene is 10lb better off than when a 4 length 4th of 14 to Post Impressionist at York last October.
Mountain Road improved for the step up to 1m 6f+ on the all-weather in the second half of 2022. The 4-year-old hasn’t been at his best on two starts on turf this season, but races weren’t run to suit. The return to the all-weather looks a plus and a better overall gallop should see him in a better light. Likely to be ridden for luck from stall 1.
Newcastle
6:35 – Jenningsbet In Shiremoor Hoppings Fillies' Stakes (Group 3) – 1m 2f
Nine fillies & mares have been declared for what’s the most valuable race either side of the Irish Sea. To all intents and purposes this looks a two horse between Nashwa and Al Husn.
Nashwa won the French Oaks at Chantilly and Group 1 Nassau Stakes at Goodwood last summer. He shaped like she needed the run when a 4 ¼ lengths 4th of 6 in a Group 2 at Saint-Cloud last month. This is the daughter of Frankel’s first run on the all-weather but there’s no reason why on pedigree she won’t handle it. She’s got the best form on offer and will be tough to beat if back to her best.
Al Husn looks her main rival. The 4-year-old won all three of her starts this season and was back to winning ways in an Ayr Listed race last time. Seems to be going the right way but needs to improve more to beat an inform Nashwa. A winner of two of her three starts on the polytrack and there’s no reason why she can’t be just as effective on the tapeta. Trainer Roger Varian has won this race twice since 2016.
Verdict: Connections of Nashwa will be disappointed if the 4-year-old can't return to winning ways here.
6:00 – Jenningsbet In Pontefract Gosforth Park Cup Handicap – 5f
There’s £25,770 on offer to winner of this Class 2 handicap. Given the prize money on offer not surprisingly the race sees a maximum field of 14 line-up.
Badri
A six time winner on the all-weather including 2-2 over C&D has already had a good 2023 winning four times. The 6-year-old posted a career best On RPR’s when winning at Epsom (6f) 27 days ago. Up 4lb for his latest win demands a bit more from him but he’s only had four starts over the minimum trip winning three of them. Given his present vein form must be high on the shortlist.
Fine Wine
Fine Wine a dual C&D winner set a new course record when winning here in December. Was a close-up 3rd of 14 in a York handicap (5f) two starts back but was below form in a Listed race at Haydock 20 days ago. Ilkley to face plenty of pace pressure here.
Mondammej
Was ½ length and one place in front of Fine Wine at York but like that one disappointed at Haydock. However, the 6-year-old was close to his very best when a strong finishing nose 2nd of 8 at Doncaster 12 days ago. Needs all the cards to fall right but off the same mark as last time so needs respecting.
Julie Camacho has a couple of live contenders in Makanah & Look Out Louis.
Makanah
Makanah was a good 2 length 3rd of 14 in last years race and can now race off 3lb lower. Stepped up on his Musselburgh seasonal appearance when a 2 length 5th of 21 to Bielsa at York (6f) last time. Not the easiest to win with. However, he can normally be relied on to give his running and respected if reproducing last year’s performance.
Look Out Louis
Has only beaten one rival on his last two starts which is a slight concern but he’s undergone wind surgery which might explain is below par performances. A dual course winner in the past including C&D. The handicapper has given him a chance and he’s now 2lb below his last winning mark. Ryan Sexton takes off a handy 3lb and if the wind op has had the desired effect, he’s on a winnable mark.
Verdict:
The forecast strong pace is advantageous to both Badri and Mondammej. The latter is hard to win with, but I wouldn’t be shocked if he won. Badri is in great form and can’t be ruled out. If you fancy him to follow up his Epsom success, I wouldn’t put you off.
Look Out Louis won’t want to get into a pace dual and provided he doesn’t, has each way claims. The probable pace set up should stablemate Makanah and he could be handily drawn in stall 13 alongside favourite Badri.
It’s the Camacho pair of Makanah & Look Out Louis for me. However, If I can 5/1 or bigger on Badri I will have a saver on him.
Good luck with your Friday bets.
John