Newmarket Cambridgeshire Meeting – Day 1

Hi all,

Inside today’s main piece I’m doing a quick preview of Sunday’s Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe. Plus, you’’ find some pointers for the Cambridgeshire Meeting.

Newmarket’s three day Cambridgeshire Meeting gets underway this afternoon. Sadly, ITV racing aren’t covering day one, which is a shame, but they are covering Friday’s card.

Before I get onto Thursday’s action a quick look at Sunday’s Arc.

Longchamp: Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe

The Arc has been a good race for me over the years. However, nothing tops the 2021 race when I tipped up Torquator Tasso at 100/1.

This year’s race doesn’t have a standout contender like an Enable in the line-up but it’s a wide open race which makes it even more appealing.

The final line-up is starting to take shape and its looking better than initially expected. Recent St Leger winner Continuous was, as expected, supplemented on Wednesday morning. The prospect of goodish ground means German Derby winner Fantastic Moon was also supplemented for the race.

I don’t have the Arc trends to hand, as Horseracebase only covers British & Irish Racing. However, there will be a few trends busters should the likes of the well fancied Ace Impact, Hukum or Continuous prevail in Sunday’s race.

Arc trends busters

Hukum would be the first 6-year-old to win Europe’s premier middle distance race.

Ony two horses have defied a 64 day + lay off to win the Arc since – Workforce (2010 & Lammtarra (1995) – and that’s what King George runner-up Westover must do.

Continuous will try to become the first horse to win the St Leger and the Arc in the same year. That’s never an easy task given there’s a short turnround between the two races this year.

Tom Segal (Pricewise) has done an interesting piece the Racing Post about Continuous and Arc trends.

Well fancied French challengers Ace Impact and Feed The Flame have trends to defy too. Feed The Flame never run as a 2-year-old and you have to go back to Rail Link in 2006 to find a winner unraced as a juvenile.

Ace Impact was also unraced as a juvenile and he would also become the first Arc winner since 1990 to have not raced at 1m 4f in his career.  I suspect the latter trend is due to be busted and his trainer Jean-Claude Rouget knows what’s required to win the race having saddled the winner in 2020.

Arc Trends Verdict:

What type of profile does an Arc winner have?  

Look for a horse coming into the race after a relatively light campaign who’s had a prep race within the last six weeks.

Better ground brings the 3-year-old’s more into the mix. Whilst soft or heavy ground tips the scales towards the older generation.

Finally, the draw, in a big field at Longchamp is all important. Drawn out wide and your horse is at disadvantage. That not to say a horse can’t win from out in the car park but they have to be classy and need a bit of luck.

That’s it really. I will be covering the Arc for Victor Value subscribers. And if you would like my Longchamp and Cambridgeshire Meeting previews/selection you can get them here for just £5.

Right onto today’s action at flat racing’s HQ.

Cambridgeshire Meeting Preview

The big betting race of the three day Cambridgeshire Meeting is Saturday’s historic Cambridgeshire Handicap. In the golden days of the sport and betting this used to be the first leg of the “Autumn Double”, the second leg being the Cesarewitch.

A once lively ante post market for both races is long gone, and I doubt few punters both with the double these days and no bookie bothers to promote it.

Besides the feature race there are ten races above Listed level over the three days, including a Group 1 juvenile double header on Saturday.

Trainer Stats:

I know some of you like your big festival/meeting trainer stats. Here are the best performing trainers at the Cambridgeshire meeting since 2018.

Aidan O’Brien clearly likes to target the meeting with his nice juveniles with all nine winners coming in 2-year-old races.

Saeed Bin Suroor’s runners are also worthy of note. Although he was 0 winners from 8 runners, 2 placed last year and 0 winners from 4 runners, 0 placed in 2020. He was 3 winners from 6 runners 50% +45.13 in 2021 and 3 winners from 7 runners 43% +7.75,4 placed in 2019.

Three other trainers to note:

At a slightly lesser level keep an eye on runners from the Jack Channon, Jessica Harrington, and Michael Dods yard’s.  Jack has taken over the licence from his dad who did well with the small number of runners he sent to the meeting.

Those three yards combined are – 6 winners from 15 runners 40% +56.5 11 placed 73% (+76.05 each way). All seven of the Harrington & Dods either won or were placed.

Worrying attendance figures

Despite a competitive three days racing at Newmarket including showpiece Saturday card attendances are on decline. I didn’t realise how bad until I looked at last year’s figures:

Thursday: 2,408              

Friday: 2,855     

Saturday: 6,843.

There was a worrying decline on last year’s Saturday attendance compared to 2021.

Racing is a spectator sport after all, and those figures are dreadful. Especially when you consider that those figures include Annual Members which you would think Newmarket has a sizeable number.  

Newmarket is like all Jockey Club Racecourses a cashless course. So, you must think that decision has likely impacted on attendances.

That’s the negativity out of the way let’s get on with Thursday’s action.

Newmarket Cambridgeshire Meeting – Day 1

The Group 3 Tattersalls Stakes (3.35)and the Listed jockey Club Rose Bowl Stakes (4.10) are today’s feature race. The latter race has only attracted four runners with last year’s Ebor winner Trawlerman long odds onto win.

On the other hand, the Tattersalls Stakes looks a cracker with 14 juveniles set to line up for the day’s feature race. You have a couple of runners with strong juvenile form in Inishfallen & Alyanaabi against half a dozen one raced winners.  Most interesting of the latter group are Eben Shaddad, Legend Of Time & Military.

Eben Shaddad looked a nice prospect when winning here on the July Course on racecourse debut in August. He’s capable of better with racing for the Gosden yard.

Legend Of Time, trained by Charlie Appleby who saddled the winner of this race in 2020 & 2012, produced the best turn of foot to win a slowly run Haydock novice (1m) at Haydock 21 days ago. Interesting to see him dropped back in trip here but he didn’t look short of pace on racecourse debut.

Aidan O’Brien won this in 2019 so you must respect his runner Military. The son of Siyouni looked a nice prospect when comfortably winning a Naas maiden (6f) two weeks ago. He’s got plenty of fancy entries, was entered in the Group 1 Middle Park Stakes, and should be well suited by the step up to 7f.

Thursday Selection:

I have put up three selections in the handicaps for Victor Value subscribers. So, today’s free tip is from the feature race.

Newmarket

3:35 – Military – 3/1 @ Coral

Good luck with your Thursday bets.

John