Hi all,
Inside today’s main piece I take a quick peek at the action on Day 2 of Newmarket’s July Festival. But first a look back to some of the day one highlights.
Nostrum is back with a bang
Charlie Appleby backers got off to good start on day one with Castle Way winning a messy Group 3 Bahrain Trophy. Given the closeness of the finish maybe Ryan Moore losing his whip on runner-up Tower Of London might have been the difference between victory and defeat.
Taking nothing away from the winner but it wasn’t a real test of stamina and turned into a bit of a sprint and In a better run race, I think runner-up would have prevailed.
I’m not convinced that the St Leger winner will come out of the race. However, if they do it will be Tower Of London.
Malc was a disappointing favourite of the Group 2 July Stakes. The race went the way of the Clive Cox trained Jasour (16/1) who seemed to float across the quick ground and won with plenty in hand at the finish.
Adayar was expected to use the Group 2 Princess Of Wales's Stakes as a springboard for the King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Qipco Stakes. However, the 1/3 favourite disappointed big time and looked laboured as winner Israr went past him 1f out. He's not the horse he was and I don't think he will heading to Ascot after this.
We might have had to wait 278 days to see the return of Nostrum to the track, but it was worth the wait. The colt relaxed out in front and there was plenty to like about the way he quickened up to win his race. He’s smart and a Group 1 horse on the evidence of this performance.
What did we learn from the first day’s action?
It paid to keep up with the pace and wasn’t easy to make up ground from the rear. Will that continue to be the case over the next couple of days?
Newmarket July Festival – Day 2
The ground was quick on Thursday. However, there could be a lot of rain at Newmarket on Friday with up to 14mm being predicted. I suspect the Clerk of the Course was itching to water on Thursday night. If he does and that level of rain does arrive the ground will ease quickly.
The feature race of day 2 is the Group 1 Falmouth Stakes (3:35).
First established in 1911 the Falmouth Stakes is considered one of the premier races over a mile for fillies and mares in the flat racing calendar.
Snow Lantern, Alpha Centauri and Alice Springs are just three examples of recent winners of the race.
Recent Curragh Group 1 winner Via Sistini heads the betting for this year’s race and will be tough to beat on the figures.
The other highlight on a seven race card is the Duchess of Cambridge Stakes (2:25). Just four juvenile fillies have stood their ground for this Group 2 contest. Sadly, the one I liked Soprano is now a non- runner which means this should be a penalty kick for Star Of Mystery.
Besides four races from Newmarket ITV are also covering two races from York this afternoon. One of them is the Group 3 William Hill Summer Stakes (2.40) which is the feature race of a seven race card on the Knavesmire. Ten fillies & mares have been declared for the 6f contest and they include recent Commonwealth Cup third Swingalong.
Falmouth Stakes (3:35)
The field size for this year’s renewal has held up well with nine fillies & mares set to meet the starter and the race looks well up to standard.
Via Sistina and Nashwa both drop back to mile. The drop back in trip shouldn’t inconvenience likely favourite Via Sistina given the pace she showed when winning the Group 1 Pretty Polly Stakes (1m 2f) at the Curragh last time. Quick ground would be a concern over a mile but if that’s the case she won’t even run.
I’m not sure about Nashwa back over a mile. A double Group 1 winner over 1m 2f as a 3-year-old. She’s disappointed on both starts so far this season. Stablemate Coppice was back to winning ways in the Sandringham Handicap at Royal Ascot last time. She’ll need to improve again but is going the right way. I fully expect her to win a Group race on quick ground, but this does look a deep renewal.
Last year Prosperous Voyage produced a big shock when beating Inspiral in last year’s race. Quick ground suits her but I don’t think she’ll defend her crown. Stablemate Remarquee looks to have stronger claims. The 3-year-old who found the 1,000 Guineas to hot on just her third career start. However, she resumed her progression when a length 2nd of 6 to Tahiyra in the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot.
Verdict: Any ease in the ground enhances the chance of favourite Via Sistina who shouldn’t be inconvenienced by the drop to a mile on rain softened ground. I really fancied Coppice for this, but she wouldn’t want too much rain to arrive. That leaves me with Remarquee at around 4/1/ 9/2.
Friday Selection:
Newmarket
3:35 – Remarquee – 1pt win – 4/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes.
Good luck with your Friday bets.
John