Hi all,
Inside today’s main piece I’m doing a short preview Newmarket’s July Festival which gets underway on Thursday.
Newmarket Weather Watch
The going at Newmarket on Tuesday morning was being described as good to firm.
Unfortunately, the weather forecast for Newmarket seems to be changing daily and the only certain thing is that the forecast is uncertain.
There could be some rain every day, with Friday looking the wettest day of the week at the time on writing on Tuesday morning. The problem for punters is how much rain will the track get.
Newmarket July Festival
The July Course is one of the two racecourses in Newmarket, with the other being the Rowley Mile Course.
Run on the July Course the July Festival is a three-day meeting that typically takes place in early to mid-July. As with most summer flat festivals it’s a mix of top-quality flat racing and social event.
The highlight of the July Festival is the Group 1 Darley July Cup which has been won by some of the best 6f sprinters in Europe. In recent years the likes of Oasis Dream, Dream Ahead, Muhaarar and Harry Angel have all won the races.
Other notable races over the three days are the Group 1 Falmouth Stakes for fillies & mares run over a mile. The Group 2 Duchess of Cambridge Stakes and Group 2 July Stakes are two important races for the juveniles.
Newmarket’s July Course is like the Rowley Course. Both have long straights joined by a right handed bend, with minor undulations.
There’s a slight difference when it comes to the finish between the courses. Although there’s an initial climb to the line it levels off close to home which means is the July Course isn’t as demanding stamina wise as the Rowley Course.
It’s a good track for prominent racers and front runners shouldn’t be allowed an uncontested lead.
July Festival Stats:
For this research, I have looked at the results from the meeting from 2017. Those results contain – 106 winners from 1095 runners 299 places. It’s worth noting I have left out the 2020 results.
Let’s begin with a couple of general meeting stats.
Favourites are 27 winners from 114 runners -39.5 A/E 0.72, 57 placed 50%. The A/E shows the meeting favourites have offered punters very little in terms of value in recent seasons.
Odds SP: 22/1 & bigger – 3 winners from 286 runners -200 A/E 0.34., 26 placed.
Whilst favourites haven’t fared well here neither have outsiders above 20/1.
There doesn’t seem to be much in a way of a draw bias at the meeting. Although its worth noting races at 6f where a high draw hasn’t been a negative.
Trainers:
Below is a list of trainers with 2+ winners at the meeting since 2017.
Charlie Appleby is nine winners clear of his nearest rival. It’s a meeting he likes to targets. Add in five winners for Saeed Bin Suroor and it seems you need to keep the Godolphin runners on side over the next three days.
All the Appleby winners were returned 7/1 or shorter.
All five Saeed Bin Suroor’s winners were return under 8/1/.
Advice: Back Charlie Appleby & Saeed Bin Suroor’s runners 8/1 & under at the July Festival.
Jockey’s
Below are the jockeys with two or more winners at the meeting since 2017.
The winners have been shared around the jockeys with James Doyle just one in front of William Buick.
Sean Levey has a tidy win strike rate at 21% and interestingly all six of his winners have come at 7f/1m – 6 winners from 19 rides 32% +30, 10 placed 53%.
Trends Verdict:
There are few trends to get excited about but do keep onside any Godolphin runners at the front end of the betting.
You will be able to get all my in depth previews for the Newmarket July Festival. Plus, as a bonus some York previews for just £5 here.
It’s cracking value even if I do say so myself.
Because I’m doing a Newmarket special this week. The Daily Punt columns will be shorter than normal for the next few days. However, I will try to post up any Godolphin qualifiers.
Wednesday Preview
The feature race on Wednesday is the Group 3 Brownstown Stakes (7.20) at Fairyhouse. There’s also flat turf action at Lingfield, Catterick, Yarmouth & Bath and all -weather cards at Kempton and Dundalk.
Fairyhouse
7:20 – The Fairyhouse feature doesn’t looked the strongest of races. Aidan O’Brien saddles four of the nine fillies. However, despite respect for all the Ballydoyle horses my selection would be for Zarinsk even though she must give 3lb to her rivals having won a Group 3 at Leopardstown in May. It’s not a betting race for me though and she would be a token pick.
7:50 – Top weight Gobi Star is well treated on his all-weather form and was a running on 5th of 22 at Cork last time. Colin Keane booked and must be respected coming out of stall 5. Princess Rajj is drawn out wider in stall 13 but shaped last time like she was working her way towards a win when a 2 length 3rd of 12 at Gowran Park 24 days ago. Has been dropped 1lb since and is expected to be bang there.
Kempton
7:30 – Motazzen is on a losing run off 11 but he’s running well and was a good 1 ¾ length 2nd of 11 over C&D last month. The first time visor replaces the cheekpieces and if the change of headgear has the desired effect, he can hopefully find the improvement to win off his present mark.
8:00 – Just 3/4 length separated Streetstorm and Double Down when the pair where second at third at Lingfield two starts back. There shouldn’t be much between the pair. However, I have a slight preference for Double Down who might be slightly better drawn in stall 5 and should get the strong gallop he needs.
Dundalk
3:55 – Bobby K, a previous C&D winner,wasn’t seen to best effect when a 4 ½ length 6th of 14 at Leopardstown20 days ago. Gary Carroll replaces an inexperienced 10lb apprentice today and that combined with a return to the all-weather will hopefully see the 8-year-old go close.
4:25 – Boadicea Belle has hardly beaten a rival on her last two turf starts but she was length 3rd of 12 on her last start over C&D in April. The forecast strong pace will suit the filly and a reproduction of her last run here would see her bang there from 2lb lower. Yard among the winners.
Wednesday Selection:
Billy No Mates ran well to finish third at Pontefract. Sadly the ground just wasn’t soft enough and he didn’t get the stamina test he needs. He’s not one to give up on though and he can win a race off his present mark, and he stays further than 1m 4f.
I have a few fancies across Britain & Ireland on Wednesday and today’s selection comes from Dundalk.
Dundalk
3:55 – Bobby K – 15/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes.
Good luck with your Wednesday bets.
John
Nice winner John, well done and many thanks for sharing.