Good morning all,
Long faces all round this morning as England sadly fall at the second-last, but it's been a great run and they've restored some much-needed pride in the side.
Let's try and find a big-priced winner at Newmarket to cheer us up. It's on the TV this afternoon, so I've looked at three races and come up with a couple to try and ease the pain. The main selection today is a 50-1 this morning (66s in a couple of places) – to fins out what it is, have a read of the main piece.
1.50 – Bahrain Trophy (1m5f)
Tricky little contest to kick off with, complicated by the fact this could be run at a false pace. If you could guarantee me a decent gallop, I’d probably side with First Eleven, for whom everything went wrong at Ascot (and from a moderate draw) but may well have won in another couple of strides. He seems to be improving very quickly and is surely up to Group 3 class already. I expect him to climb further, whatever happens today.
It’s possible Victory Salute may be used to make the pace for Guiseppe Garibaldi, which would help First Eleven’s case plenty. But at this stage, I’m happy to sit this one out.
2.25 – July Stakes (6f)
Some good types in here and plenty of these will go on to better things. The case for Advertise is an easy one, given how well he ran against Calyx at Royal Ascot, particularly when you factor in that stall 1 was probably far from ideal. That was a huge step up on his Newbury win and I wonder how much it may have taken out of him, as it looked a huge effort. At 6-4 I can look elsewhere.
Patience is starting to run a little thin with Konchek, as he’s cost me twice now, but this step up to 6f should be in his favour, as should the stiffish finish. At 12-1 I can just about afford to give him one more try, and I’m also going to have a small e/w bet on North Wind.
I fully realise he’s in here as pacemaker for Van Beethoven, but he’s no slouch in his own right and took a big step forward himself when fifth at the Curragh last time. What’s key is that he’s likely to get the easiest of easy leads here, and on the speed figures he’s really not far off the places, at worst. Front runners have a decent record over this C&D and if his jockey can get the fractions right, there could be a pick-up for each-way players. Need the dead eight to line up, though.
3.00 – Bet365 Handicap (6f)
Whereas the first two races appear to have little pace in them, there’s no shortage of it here, especially among the high numbers. Buridan, Helvetian, Savalas and Jawwaal all like to get on with it and this has the makings of a bit of a burn-up.
I’m going to take an absolute flyer with the rank outsider Tricksy Spirit here, who cannot possibly be a 50s poke on form. For a start, she’s already finished in front of Encrypted this season (admittedly it was the latter’s first run of the year) when they were third and fifth to Yalta in a competitive handicap back in May, so has that in her locker, plus this step back up to 6f looks a huge plus after three runs at five, which is simply too sharp for her. She had no chance from a bad draw (in Listed company) at Sandown last weekend, so back in handicap company, drawn to track the pace, if the breaks come late she should have her chance. (Update – have backed her 50s 6 places Skybet this morning. 66s available with Ladbrokes and Coral, 5 places, if you can get on…)
Today's selection – Tricksy Spirit (e/w) 3.00 Newmarket
Good luck with all your bets today,
David.