North Yorkshire Grand National

Hi all,

Inside today’s main piece I’m previewing today’s Vickers.Bet North Yorkshire Grand Handicap at Catterick.

To bet, or not to bet, that is the question.

My sincerest apologies to the bard, but as a punter, this question holds significant weight. Yesterday's events serve as a prime example. I harbored a couple of initial fancies, but I left them alone. It's a predicament, particularly when those initial instincts turn out to be victorious, albeit they did not in this case. It stings to miss out on a winner or two but consider the multitude of losers you evade. The ones that slipped away linger more prominently in memory than the losers, despite the latter being far more numerous.

Bookmakers are obligated to participate in every race, whereas punters possess the freedom to be more discerning. Not every race or day presents substantial betting opportunities, and recognizing this is crucial. The decision to abstain from betting on a day when a conviction is lacking can be liberating.

Consider the plight of tipsters like Hugh Taylor; the pressure to provide tips consistently, even on days when selections may not be robust, is a challenging task. Imagining someone of Hugh's stature going two or three without tips, admitting the absence of strong convictions to an editor, reflects the complexity of the predicament.

I’m fortunate I have more flexibility than Hugh when writing for the Daily Punt. Yet I even feel like I must put something up for readers.

I will continue to share selections with you when I genuinely like one, rather than doing so for the sake of filling the column. Embracing this approach may lead to days without tips, but the quality of selections will prevail over quantity.

Ultimately, the ability to assess races and refrain from betting when conviction is lacking is a skill that not only preserves one's bankroll but also contributes to a sense of satisfaction in making prudent decisions.

Cheltenham Ante-Post Portfolio Update:

Tom Segal's eagerly anticipated Cheltenham Ante-Post Pricewise series made its return in Tuesday’s Racing Post. Tom will be delving into the Cheltenham Festival races, offering his insights and selections. Considering the comprehensive coverage, I would be surprised if he didn’t provide picks for every race, aligning with my earlier sentiments.

The return of this series prompted me to revisit my Festival ante-post portfolio. Let's kick off with my Gold Cup selection, which interestingly coincides with Tom's tip from Tuesday.

Gentlemansgame – Gold Cup – 25/1.

Followed by:

Gidleigh Park – Albert Bartlett Novice Hurdle – 20/1.

Inthepocket – Turners Novice Chase – 16/1.

Irish Point – Stayers Hurdle – 20/1.

Monty’s Star – Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase – 20/1.

The positive news is that all five bets were secured at much higher odds than they are now, representing a favorable start. However, uncertainties have arisen regarding the intended targets for Gidleigh Park, Inthepocket, and Irish Point:

Gidleigh Park might opt for the Ballymore.

Inthepocket seems destined for the Arkle.

The owners of Irish Point also boast Teahupoo in the Stayers Hurdle; running both remains a possibility given the race's prestige and Teahupoo's ground-dependent nature.

This leaves only two certain runners for their respective races:

The eclipse of Gerri Colombe at Leopardstown means Gentlemansgame is bang on course for the Gold Cup.

Monty’s Star, if making a Festival appearance, looks set for the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase.

The inherent risks of ante-post betting are evident, yet the initial odds obtained provide a sense of contentment. While uncertainties persist, the hope remains that all five selections will run in the right races.

With March drawing near, the diminishing value in ante-post markets is acknowledged. Though additional selections may emerge, it appears my ante-post portfolio won't be as extensive as anticipated back in November.

Thursday Preview

I’m heading to Catterick for a day at the races. Far and away the most valuable race on mediocre Thursday is the Vickers.Bet North Yorkshire Grand National Handicap (2:30). Despite some fair prize money on offer just eight have been declared for this Class 3 handicap. 

Catterick: North Yorkshire Grand National Handicap

Looking at Horseracebase, the eight runners have won 23 handicap chases between them.

Contenders:

Bushypark made all to win last year’s from 5lb lower. However, it was heavy ground 12 months ago and he showcased his talents for the most testing of conditions when making all over hurdles at Haydock last month.

Court At Slip, No Cruise Yet and Glittering Love finished first, third and fifth respectively in a Newcastle handicap chase (heavy) 28 days ago. Court At Slip is 4lb higher here but he’s progressive and seems ground versatile. I would have the 7-year-old as favourite although his stamina for 3m 6f must be proven.

No Cruise Yet is handicapped to dead heat with Court At Slip at the revised weights. He will appreciate the drying ground and the return to 3m 6f.

Glittering Love was beaten 11 ½ lengths by Court At Slip at Newcastle but he’s down to a good mark and should be spot on fitness wise.

Ladronne and Shadow’s In The Sky Have Each Way Claims.

Previous course winner Ladronne is on a losing run that goes back to November 2022. However, he’s consistent enough and is 1lb below his last winning mark. Stamina to prove but Sean Quinlan 4-14, 7 placed on the 10-year-old is back in the saddle for the first time this season.

Track And Trace and Shadow’s In The Sky add intrigue to the race as both have just had two starts in handicap chases. Track And Trace was beaten a short head at Carlisle (3m 2f) last time. He shaped like a stayer last time and is unexposed over fences. Shadow’s In The Sky improved plenty for his chase debut when a 2 ½ length 3^rd of 11 at Musselburgh 24 days ago. He looks likely to improve again for a stamina test and has each way claims, but this is a better race than last time.

Finally, we have Crixus's Escape. The 11-year-old is inconsistent these days but was back to winning ways here (3m 1f) 14 days ago. He’s 8lb higher in a deeper race but remains well handicapped on the best of his old form.

North Yorkshire Grand National Verdict:

Despite the modest number of contenders, I consider this to be an intriguing and competitive race, with each of the eight runners warranting favourable consideration. Bushypark, last year's winner, shouldn't be underestimated. The drying ground and step up in distance significantly enhance the chances of No Cruise Yet. Nevertheless, Court At Slip, who triumphed over No Cruise Yet in their previous encounter, seems to be progressing well and has the potential to uphold that form, if staying today’s longer trip.  Shadow’s In The Sky, relatively unexposed over fences, could be suited by today’s marathon trip and has no weight with 7lb conditional jockey booked. Ladronne, if his stamina holds, appears to be well-treated and is an each-way option.

Thursday Selection:

I was interested in three in the North Yorkshire Grand National. No Cruise Yet has clear claims if the ground continues to dry out. Ladronne has each way claims if his stamina holds. However, at the prices I'm going with the progressive Court At Slip who seems reasonably priced at 6/1.

Catterick

2:30 – Court At Slip – 6/1.

Good luck with your Thursday bets.

John