Hi all,
Inside today’s main piece I continue my look ahead to the weekend’s big races with a preview of two races from Kempton on Saturday. Plus, there’s a look at today’s vickers.bet North Yorkshire Grand National (2.50) at Catterick.
I’m still down with the lurgy so I won’t be going to Catterick this afternoon and today’s column isn’t I as much depth as I would have liked.
Looking Ahead To The Weekend – Part 2
The Lanzarote Handicap Hurdle (2.40) saw 27 remain in the race at Monday’s final confirmation stage. Fingers crossed we should get a decent sized field for the race.
A potentially decent sized field for Kempton’s big betting race then. However, Coral who are sponsoring the card will be disappointed that only one race has seen more than 12 runners entered.
The other big race on the Kempton card the Grade 2 Silviniaco Conti Chase which has attracted just six runners at Monday’s confirmation stage. In all honesty it looks a very uncompetitive race, and you have to question why so much prize money is going to races like this that don’t have the horse population to produce even eight runners fields.
Paul Nicholls won this in 2020 & 2021 and has two of the six entries in Pic D'Orhy and Saint Calvados. The former seems likely to go off the odds on favourite. He’s 1-1 over C&D and made it 5- 12 over fences when winning the Grade 2 Peterborough Chase at Huntingdon last month. He’s got a 6lb penalty to carry for that success, but it shouldn’t stop him from winning this.
Paint The Dream is actually better off at the weights but his very best form has come at Newbury. A biggest threat to the favourite could be stablemate Saint Calvados.
We haven’t seen Angels Breath since December 2019. Now with Sam Thomas the 9-year-old was a smart novice chaser (2-2) when last seen in action. Hard to know what ability he retains after a mammoth layoff, but I would think he’ll be fit as he can be.
Coral Lanzarote Handicap Hurdle (2m 5f)
Taking a brief look at the trends which contain 13 winners from 199 runners 45 placed. We can see all the last 13 winners of the race shared the following traits:
Digging a but deeper into horseracebase we find that 12 of the 13 winners had two wins over hurdles.
If you had backed all those qualifiers, you would have made a profit £95 to a £1 level stake.
Contenders:
I don’t have the time to go through all the potential contenders today but here are few.
The bookies have been rather cagey with the ante post market. With the Charles Byrnes trained Green Glory pencilled in as the 5/1 favourite after a goof win at Leopardstown over Christmas. He’s 16lb higher now but the Irish challenger would have to be respected if he was to come over for the race.
Paul Nicholls saddled the winner in 2014 & 2017. And he could run Outlaw Peter who won an Exeter novice last time and makes his handicap debut here. He’s on what looks a good mark, but very testing ground would be a concern for the 7-year-old.
Scarface gained a second success over hurdles when winning an Ascot novice last time. A mark of 126 looks workable on handicap debut. And given he meets the above race trends he’s very much one to consider.
Nicky Henderson has won this race three time since 2013. He left three in the race on Monday and the most interesting of his trio looks to be Rathmacknee. The 7-year-old made it 2-5 over hurdles when winning at Doncaster on handicap hurdle debut last month. Up just 3lb he looks the sort who will relish a well run big field handicap like this.
La Patron who shaped with promise on stable debut for Gary Moore. The progressive Petit Tonnerre who will appreciate the return to softer ground after a good run at Newbury last time are in the mix. As are the likes of Hermes Boy, Dubrovnik Harry, Harbour Lake and last years winner Cobblers Dream. Although the latter pair both fail one of the above trends.
Thursday Racing
The vickers.bet North Yorkshire Grand National (2.50) may not be the most valuable race on Thursday. That honour goes to the All-Weather Championships Fast-Track Qualifier at Newcastle (1:50).
At the final confirmation stage, it looked like we’re going to see a good line-up for the race. However, just eight were declared and the field has been reduced to seven with likely favourite The Galloping Bear now a non-runner.
Catterick
2:50 – vickers.bet North Yorkshire Grand National (3m 6f)
Bushypark who was back to form when a 1 ½ lengths 2nd of 8 at Newcastle over hurdles 5-days ago is the new market leader. A useful handicap hurdler the 9-year-old has just had three starts over fences and seems likely to get an uncontested lead here. Trainer Philip Kirby saddled the winner in 2020 and looks to have a good chance of another success in the race.
There was money around for the well handicapped Sam’s Adventure at Haydock last month. However, not for the first time his jumping let him down and he unseated his jockey at the 16th. The visor goes on for the first time which makes him of some interest.
Legends Ryde posted a seasonal best when a 5 ¾ length 3rd of 10 to Dame du Soir in mares handicap chase at Cheltenham last time. The mares yard is among the winners, and she needs respecting in this company.
Eclair De Guye tends to give his running in these marathon handicap chases and is now 1lb below his last winning mark. Cyclop is another below his last winning mark and another to consider.
Verdict: Bushypark seems likely to get his own way out in front. And if his jumping holds up looks the most likely winner with the ground set to suit. His biggest rival looks to be the mare Legends Ryde. She hails from a yard among the winners and is 10 from 20 with its runners here in the past 5-years. And when in combination with jockey Gavin Sheehan 7 from 10 +5 9 placed. Her best form has come on sound surface, but she has won on heavy in the past.
Thursday Selection:
Catterick
2:50 – Bushypark – 3/1 @ Coral.
Good luck with your Thursday bets.
John