Northumberland Plate Preview and Carlisle Bell Selection

Hi all,

Inside today’s main piece I’m putting Saturdays Jenningsbet Northumberland Plate under the big race microscope. Plus, you'll find a short preview of today's Carlisle Bell.

Looking Ahead To The Weekend – Part 1

Jenningsbet Northumberland Plate (2.05) at Newcastle the betting highlight of Saturday’s action. Quality wise the best of the action is across the Irish Sea where its day two of the Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby meeting. The Group 1 action at the Curragh with the Pretty Polly Stakes (3.25) and the card also features the Group 2 Airlie Stud Stakes (2.15) and International Stakes (4.00).

It’s an early start for ITV viewers on Saturday. ITV Racing’s coverage underway at 11:55 with the first race of seven from Newcastle & Newmarket at 12:20. The reason for the early start is ITV wants to get the racing done quickly to cover a Women’s football friendly between England and Portugal.

The Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby (3.40) is the highlight of an eight race card at the Curragh on Sunday. ITV viewers will be able to see that race plus the best of the action from Cartmel & Uttoxeter on a Sunday programme.  

Newcastle: Jenningsbet Northumberland Plate

The Northumberland Plate, also known as the “Pitmen's Derby,” is one of the highlights of the racing calendar at Newcastle.

The history of the Northumberland Plate dates to 1833. Making the race one of the oldest races in the United Kingdom. It was originally established by the wealthy industrialists and mine owners of the North East region, who were known as “pitmen.” The race was intended to be a spectacle for the working-class of the area, with many miners and their families attending the event.

Notable winners of the Northumberland Plate include legendary horses like Brown Jack, who won the race six times between 1929 and 1935, and Tug Of War, who achieved a record-breaking four consecutive victories from 1815 to 1818. Last year’s renewal saw one of the finest flat racing weight carrying performances of the modern era as Trueshan carried 10-8 to victory.

Since 2016 the race has been run on the tapeta and since the change to the synthetic surface its become a totally different race. Looking at the race from a trends perspective I have just looked at the last seven renewals of the race which contain – 7 winners from 137 runners, 28 placed.

Looking at the trends. All seven winners shared the following traits:

That’s 7 winners from 44 runners +42, 16 placed.  It will be interesting to see if those trends continue to prevail this year. The most interesting one of the three is that all seven winners and raced four or less times on the all-weather.

Contenders:

Forty eight were left in the race at Monday’s final confirmation stage.

Ante post favourite Post Impressionist finished runner-up to Eldar Eldarov here on his only start on the all-weather last season. The 4-year-old ended last season with a win in a York handicap (1m 6f). The way he finished his race suggested that he would stay 2m. If he runs here, he would be making his seasonal reappearance off an 8lb higher mark than last time but looks to have solid claims.

Adjuvant built on the promise of his Newmarket seasonal return when beating eight rivals back at that venue last month. He stays 1m 6f and a 4lb higher mark doesn’t look to harsh. A consistent handicapper he should give his running if handling the all-weather for the first time.

Golden Rules was having his first start for a new trainer when winning a Kempton handicap (2m) 108-days ago. That was the 6-year-old’s first start since finishing a 2 ½ length 4^th of 19 in the Ascot Stakes. Twice winner on the polytrack this would be his first starts on the tapeta but if handles the new surface he’s a big contender off just 3lb higher than at last time

Zoffee won the Northumberland Vase, from 11lb lower 12 months ago. He finished a neck 2^nd in the Chester Cup two starts back and had a wide trip 3 ¼ length 6^th of 19 to a Horsewithnoname in the Ascot Stakes last week. Not ruled out if turned quickly over a C&D that suits.

Law of The Sea has run well on all three starts since switched up to 2m+ and last time finished ¾ length and two places in front of Zoffee in the Ascot Stakes.

Northumberland Plate Verdict:

Uncertain running plans means I haven’t had a play in the race yet. It’s possible Post Impressionist has been laid out for this and 5/1 looks fair enough. Adjuvant and Golden Rules are also very much in the mix. Zoffee and Law Of the Sea would have to be respected if turned out quickly after their runs at Royal Ascot.

Wednesday Preview

It’s Carlisle’s most valuable fixture of its flat season. The feature race on the card is the historic Carlisle Bell Handicap (3.50). The Cumberland Plate (4.20) and Listed Eternal Stakes (4.50) also feature on a seven-race card.

The origins of the Carlisle Bell can be traced back to 1599, making it one of the oldest horse races in the world. It is believed to have been inspired by a local bell, known as the “Cursing Bell,” which was rung to ward off evil spirits during a period of plague in the area.

It’s the “Bell” that provides today’s selection.

3:50 – The forecast strong pace will suit Painters Palette who was 2^nd of 7 at Ayr 15 days ago. Any further ease in the ground is another plus for the 4-year-olds chance.

The lightly raced Pillar of Hope made it 3-10 when winning at Beverley two starts back. Not disgraced when a 2 ¾ length 4^th of 9 to Oviedo upped to 1m 2f in the Zetland Gold Cup at Redcar last month. Takes an ease in grade here. And a drop back to a strongly run mile could suit the 5-year-old who is 2-2 on good to soft.

Bashful bids for the hat trick after wins at Hamilton and latterly Newcastle 7 days ago. Has a 5lb penalty to carry for last week’s win and is up a notch in class. However, given his present vein of form he cant be discounted and 16/1 looks a bit big to yours truly.

Pillar Of Hope has strong claims out of stall 2. Despite a wide draw the inform Bashful is the each-way pick despite stall 14.

Bashful – 16/1 – Coral & Paddy Power (both paying 5 places).

Good luck with your Wednesday bets.

John