Good morning all,
I'm finally starting to get back on top of my workload and decided to take a first look at the big races next weekend to see if there's any ante-post value in either. I'm pleased to say there is, so have a read of my thoughts on the main piece.
Tomorrow, by popular demand (two of you have asked) I'll do a video preview of the racing, as there's so much good stuff going on it would be a rather long read…!
Paddy Power Gold Cup
The front of the market sees joint favourites in most markets, with Protektorat and Lalor holding those positions.
I’ve got issues with both, as much as I like them. Protektorat, to date, hasn’t raced in big fields and the one time he did – in the 2020 Coral Cup – he was well held. He has a few ideas of his own, for all his talents, and I’m far from convinced the hurly-burly of this will suit.
Lalor has been well touted up by his new yard, with Paul Nicholls now taking over, and has been steadily backed for this for some time. He’s clearly well handicapped on a mark of 149 if his new yard can get him back to something like his old form, but he threw in two stinkers when last seen, seemingly with no reason, and at the price it’s easy enough to swerve him too. In fact, at twice the price, Simply The Betts, who looked a real star when winning the 2020 Brown and Merriebelle Plate, makes more appeal on his first start for Nicholls, given his record at the track. It’ll be interesting to see what the market says as the race approaches – it wouldn’t be the biggest surprise to see the pair a lot closer together.
It’s also easy to fall into the “got the T-shirt” trap for the likes of Cepage, Aso and Spiritofthegames and although it would be no surprise to see one of them hit the frame, their best days are surely behind them. One that I can’t quite throw into that bracket is Al Dancer, who was third to Coole Cody in the 2020 version of this and now finds himself in the care of Sam Thomas. Sam is starting to show how good he actually is this training lark, and has turned a couple of ex-Twiston inmates around already this year, as well as Before Midnight from Nicky Henderson. It’s clear Sam knows what he’s doing, and although winning this first time up is a big ask, his record after a 100+ day break – four wins from four starts – suggests that fresh may well be the time to catch him. He’s 5lb lower than last year and looks one of those that the tipsters may well latch onto next week. At 12s and bigger, try a win-only bet on him, as I can see him going off nearer 6s.
Coole Cody himself is hardly poorly treated, being only 4lb higher than last year’s win, and he lost nothing in defeat when running over hurdles here in October. I think he’d be one I’d want to back with extra places come the day, as he looks nailed-on to run his race again, but I’d not put you off a small win-only bet at 20s at this stage, as he’s likely to go off shorter.
Dostal Phil will win races this year but whether he wants this trip is a question he’s yet to answer, and of the unexposed ones it’s Manofthemountain that makes most appeal. He wouldn’t want bad ground, but he’s won 5 of his 10 chase starts, including a ready win here in April, and still looks like he has more to offer.
Greatwood Hurdle
The one that immediately catches the eye here is Grand Annual winner Sky Pirate, seemingly reverting to hurdles. My guess is that they have given him an entry to see what mark he’d get (I can tell you – 152, 7lb lower than his chase mark) before making any decisions. You’d love to know if the resurgent Jonjo O’Neill is going to run him, or whether it’s one of those “suck it and see” fanficul entries. Either way, it’s clearly something that’s gone through his head, and 20-1 would look a fair price if this strong-traveller turned up.
Jonjo’s Soaring Glory heads the market after his Ascot win last time, and paddock reports suggested he looked a much fitter, finished horse than he did last year. It’s a stretch to say a win here puts him on the fringes of the Champion Hurdle, but it would not be the biggest surprise if he were good enough, despite another 7lb rise.
It’ll be no surprise to anyone that’s a regular reader of my stuff that Quinta Do Mar is going to figure highly at the top of my list. Ben Pauling’s 6yo is one I’ve liked from the word go, and given he was only beaten 12l by the classy Proschema on his handicap debut here in April (and that over 20f, which might be a bit far for him at this stage) before a very easy win at Carlisle on his reappearance, he ought to have a lot left in the locker. Looking back, I wonder whether the Cheltenham run was a bit of a look-round for this, but he handled the track well and a strongly-run 2m will suit him well. He’ll need a few to drop out of he’s to get in, but 130 would have seen him creep in last year, so I’m hopeful he’ll get a run. Backing him ante-post win-only at 25s at present, and then I’ll back him again with the extra places on the day.
I’m a Buzz man as well, but I have to think that 2m for the Cesarewitch winner is going to prove too short this season. Indeed, he improved for the step up to 20f when second in the G1 Aintree Hurdle (as an aside, how well did third home Millers Bank jump on his chase debut at Huntingdon last week? Impressed…) and I actually wonder whether 3m might be the ticket this season. Now we know he can mix it at the highest level, World Hurdle anyone? 20-1 looks a fair ante-post price in a division that's pretty open.
There’s a whole host of Irish challengers at this stage – Cask Mate and Autumn Appeal just about head my list for them, but we’ll wait and see what turns up on the day, with a few likely to have other engagements over the weekend. Of the others, Ben Pauling’s other runner, Global Citizen, is starting to look well handicapped off 137 for one with his quality, but we’ll get the 25-1 price he is now on the day, and probably bigger, so he makes no appeal ante-post. Quinta Do Mar does though, and he’ll be the one carrying my cash.
Today, and I do think The Tin Miner has a decent chance of turning over the odds-on Imphal in the 2.50 at Fontwell if he's fit. That's going to be the key, and we won't know that until late in the race, but Imphal was pretty much all out to win at Ludlow last time (pilot picked up a whip ban) and he might simply be one of these horses that's not so good over hurdles as the Flat. The Tin Miner will go out pretty hard from the start and if there are stamina concerns with Imphal, he'll find them out.
Good luck with all your bets today,
David.