Hi all,
Inside today’s main piece I’m looking ahead to the Paddy Power Gold Cup and the Unibet Greatwood Hurdle. The first two big handicaps of the winter jumps campaign.
State Man Out for the Season
The big racing news yesterday was off the track as Willie Mullins announced that State Man had sustained an injury on the gallops and would miss the season. Connections will rue last season’s final hurdle fall when he had a second Champion Hurdle at his mercy. It was never going to be easy to win another Champion Hurdle at 10 but it will be even harder at 11.
He’s the first big name who won’t be seen this season and I suspect he won’t be the last.
Diva Luna Shines at Bangor
The rain arrived at Bangor to turn the ground soft for yesterday’s card.
Diva Luna put in a good round of jumping to win the Listed Mares' Novices' Chase. It was a taking debut over fences by the six-year-old, vindicating Ben Pauling’s Racing Post Stable Tour comments about her. Joyeuse, sent off the 11/10 favourite, didn’t jump as fluently as the winner and may just have needed the run. Still, I would be surprised if Joyeuse was to beat Diva Luna if they were to meet again.
Deep Cave made a winning seasonal return in the 3m handicap chase. Back over fences for the first time since joining Christian Williams, the seven-year-old took advantage of a final-fence error by favourite The Doyen Chief. Deep Cave has only had four starts over fences, and his trainer excels with staying handicap chasers so he might be able to win a bigger pot. The Doyen Chief travelled well and remains on a good mark, but on soft ground was just outstayed by the winner.
Up at Ayr, Derryhassen Paddy couldn’t make a winning debut over fences in the beginners’ chase (2m4½f). His jumping lacked fluency, but he should learn plenty from the experience. The trip was always going to be on sharp side for him, and he’ll be fitter next time. Connections won’t be too disheartened, though he’ll need to brush up his jumping if he’s to make an impact in the novice chase division.
Cheltenham November Meeting
Saturday
ITV will be showing four races live from Cheltenham on Saturday. Final declarations for both Saturday’s and Sunday’s cards aren’t out yet, but here are a few early pointers for the two big handicaps.
As you can imagine, I’ve got plenty of fancies over the weekend. The problem is that several of them hold multiple entries, which makes things tricky at this stage. Then there’s the small matter of the weather. A few I like would much prefer good ground, or good to soft at worst.
The weather app I use is currently showing around 33mm of rain due to fall on Friday. If that arrives, conditions will ease significantly. I won’t be getting involved until I know exactly what the underfoot conditions are like.
Paddy Power Gold Cup Handicap Chase
Only 16 remain in the Paddy Power Gold Cup, a disappointing number for such a valuable race. It’s worrying that top-class handicap chases can’t fill outside the Festival.
Contenders:
Jagwar heads the betting. The 6yo is 2-2 at Cheltenham, including a win in the Plate at the Festival. If this has been the target, he’s got a big chance.
Last year’s winner Il Ridoto is just 1lb higher and had a pipe opener at Chepstow last month. He’s well handicapped and must be strongly considered.
There’s been good support for Panic Attack, and it’s easy to see why. Dan Skelton’s mare looks exactly the type he targets for these valuable prizes. Skelton could also run Hoe Joly Smoke who travelled like well handicapped horse when third here last month, just failing to see out the 3m1f trip. Provided 2m4f isn’t to sharp he’s likely to be on the premises.
The Irish haven’t won this since 2009, when Edward O’Grady himself trained the winner. Mind you they don’t have that many representatives. This year they have, Coming Up Easy who has won his last three starts over fences and could still be ahead of his mark.
Fellow Irish raider Thecompanysergeant finished a 2 ¾ lengths to Jagwar in the Plate Handicap at the Festival. Hasn’t been at the level of form on three subsequent starts but likely is on a winnable mark and this could have been the target since March.
Bad made it three from three at Kempton when scoring last month on his return. He’s 7lb higher but still looks fairly treated. Unproven at Cheltenham but his yard is flying. If he handles the track and the ground isn’t too soft, he’s in the mix.
Vincenzo seemingly proved his stamina for 2m4f when a 1 ¼ lengths runner-up in the Greatwood Gold Cup at Newbury in March. Seasonal return for a trainer in flying form and has to be considered on soft ground.
Sunday
It’s a rare big-race Sunday, at least as far as Britain is concerned. ITV Racing will show five races live from Cheltenham, along with the BetGoodwin Southern National Handicap Chase from Fontwell.
Across the water, there’s also top-class action at Navan, where the Bar One Racing Troytown Handicap Chase headlines a good Sunday card.
Unibet Greatwood Handicap Hurdle
The Unibet Greatwood Handicap Hurdle rounds off Cheltenham’s November meeting. It’s the first big handicap hurdle of the winter jumps season.
Alexei and Celtic Dino head the market, though both would prefer the rain to stay away. Alexei looks the more progressive of the pair and given he’s suited by a strongly run race looks to have a solid favourite chance.
Mirabad was well backed earlier in the week. He won here last December, and the market confidence suggests Dan Skelton believes he’s well treated off 129. Skelton’s record in this race is two wins and a runner-up last year – speaks volumes.
King William Rufus was a winner here in April and shaped well on his return last month. He’ll strip fitter and makes each-way appeal.
Alan King, successful in 2017 and 2019, has two entries – Castle Carrock and Helnwein. The former looked a useful novice on soft ground last season and looks interesting on handicap debut.
Gibbs Island appreciated the drop into handicap company when running out an easy winner at Chepstow on handicap debut last month. An 8lb rise might not stop him progressing again.
Finally, Tony Martin’s Putapoundinthejar looks a bit of a dark horse. He’s race-fit, proven on yielding ground in Ireland and could be a lurker off a mark of 133. If that’s the case 25/1 would look big. No jockey has been booked but Sean Bowen who rode hi to victory at the Punchestown Festival could be back in the saddle.
Thursday Racing
Like Tuesday, I can happily swerve a very moderate day’s racing.
Tomorrow I’ll be looking at day one of Cheltenham’s November Meeting
Good luck with your Thursday bets.
John