Hi all,
Inside today’s main piece I’m previewing today’s re-scheduled QuinnBet Grand National Trial Handicap Chase at Punchestown.
Before looking at Thursday’s Grand National Trial at Punchestown a quick look at another interesting piece from the excellent Dave Renham.
Some of you will have already seen Dave’s article’s in Geegeez about price movements from Opening Show odds to SP in National Hunt racing. This week he’s delivered into the Cheltenham Festival and some major trainers. If you haven’t read Dave’s article, I think it’s well worth a few minutes of your time.
The great thing about Dave Renham is he writes a piece, and it usually inspires me to dig a bit deeper. This week’s article has done just that, and I found five trainers whose runners perform badly at the Cheltenham Festival with horses that have drifted in price from the opening show to SP.
The five trainers are Alan King, Joseph O’Brien, Dan Skelton, Nigel Twiston-Davies and Venetia Williams.
Breakdown by trainer:
For tipsters like me, who put up selections the night before or on race morning, this data is less useful. However, if you bet late or are a layer, these figures could be valuable.
At Cheltenham, if any of the five trainers listed earlier have a runner, be cautious. The market has usually got them right.
Looking Ahead to the Weekend
Here’s a quick preview of Saturday’s ITV races at Kempton.
Ladbrokes Trophy (Handicap Chase)
The race has had several sponsors over the years. First run in 1949, it was backed by the Racing Post (1988-2013) before changing sponsers multiple times. Since 2022, it’s been the Coral Trophy, but this year, another Entain Group brand takes over.
Looking at the last ten years (137 runners), all ten winners shared these key trends:
Age: 7 to 9 years old
Runs at the distance: 0 to 6
Chase wins: 1 to 6
Last-time-out placing: Top 3 or pulled up (Last-time-out winners: 1 from 30, -23.5, 7 places).
Additionally, horses without a previous win on the going are 0 from 24 runners, with just two places.
Ladbrokes Pendil Novices’ Chase
First run in 1965, this Grade 2 chase was renamed in 1993 after Pendil, a two-time King George VI Chase winner in the 1970s.
Paul Nicholls has dominated in recent years, winning six of the last ten runnings, including with Pic D’Orhy in 2022.
With just 44 runners in the last ten years, this isn’t a race for deep trends. However, two key stats stand out:
Top-weighted horses: 7 winners from 18 runners (+10.88), 8 places
Previous Grade 1 runners: 9 winners from 24 runners (+11.26), 14 places.
Ladbrokes Adonis Juvenile Hurdle
The Grade 2 Adonis Hurdle is for the juveniles and since 1988 six winners of the Adonis have gone onto win the Triumph Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival the latest of them being Zarkandar in 2011.
Nine of the last ten winners of the race were from the first three in the betting. Those outside the first three are – 1 winners from 56 runners -46, 9 places. Favourites are – 6 winners from 10 runners + 6.03, 7 places.
Three of the last 10 winners were making their hurdle debut and six winners had won last time out.
Ladbrokes Dovecote Novices’ Hurdle
The Grade 2 Dovecote Novices’ Hurdle first run in 1988. Run over the same distance as the Adonis It has been described as Supreme Trial but the last horse to do the Dovecote/Supreme Double was Flown way back in 1992.
Again, not the strongest of trends race due to the last ten runnings of the race have seen just 70 runners. However, all the last ten winners were from the first three in the betting. Those outside the first three are 0 winners from 40 runners, 4 places. It’s worth noting second favourires are 6 winners 6 winners from 10 runners +16, 8 places.
Eight of the last ten winners had finished first or second on their latest start. The two that didn’t are Rubaud (2023) and Cape Gentleman (2021). The first named had finished 10th in the Betfair Handicap Hurdle and the latter had pulled up in a Grade 1 (2m 6f) at the Dublin Racing Festival at Leopardstown.
If you want my weekend previews and picks you can get them here.
Thursday Racing – Punchestown
2:25 – QuinnBet Grand National Trial Handicap Chase – 3m 3f
Seventeen runners line up for this stamina test, with €59,000 to the winner.
Velvet Elvis bounced back to form when 2¼ lengths second to Nick Rockett in the Thyestes Handicap Chase at Gowran Park. He’s a solid favourite, but a 5lb rise demands more.
Stablemate Ask Anything received market support prior to Sunday’s postponement. He went close in the Ulster National last April and ran well over hurdles last month. Back up in trip, with Conor Stone-Walsh taking off a useful 5lb.
Macdermott, last season’s Scottish Grand National winner, unseated at the start of the Thyestes. Just 3lb higher than his Ayr win, he stays well and could bounce back.
Macs Charm was below form in the Thyestes, but he’s 3lb below his last winning mark. Cheekpieces go on for the first time, and if they sharpen him up, he could run well at a price.
King’s Halo won a Cork handicap chase (2m 4f) last time and is three from nine over fences. He stays 3m, but this step up in trip is a question mark. A 5lb rise makes things tougher, but if he sees it out the extra distance, he’s a contender.
Good luck with your Thursday bets!
John