Hi all,
Inside today’s main piece I continue my look ahead to the weekend’s racing with a preview of the Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe. Plus, I’m revisiting Clive Holt’s Fineform method.
The eyes of the Racing world will be on Longchamp this weekend for Europe’s most prestigious flat race the Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe.
It’s one of my favourite meetings of the year, eight Group 1’s over the two days puts Ascot Champion’s Day firmly in the shade and makes it more akin to Breeders Cup Weekend.
It’s been mostly dry in Paris, and the perceived wisdom was we would see unseasonably quick ground. However, 10mm is being forecast for Friday and there could be a bit more over the weekend.
Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe: Will Japan finally win the Arc?
Although I’ll probably do a Sunday column to cover Arc Day. Just in case I don’t here a quick run through of this year’s Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe.
It’s an open looking Arc this year with Minnie Hauk and Aventure vying for favouritism at 4/1.
Dual Oaks winner Minnie Hauk is unbeaten since her juvenile debut and gets the 3yo allowance. Likely to go off clear favourite and has strong claims but talking on the boys for the first time here.
Aventure was runner-up in last year’s Arc and won the Group 1 Prix Vermeille. She’s 3 wins from 4 starts in 2025, proven at Longchamp but will need luck in the run.
Japanese horses have gone close in the past, and good or quicker ground would suit them. They have three contenders in Croix Du Nord, Byzantine Dream and Alohi Alii.
Croix Du Nord looks the pick of the Japanese pair. Two-time Group 1 winner in Japan. He impressed when his winning a Group 3 (1m 2f) here last month. The return to 1m4f will suit.
Byzantine Dream won the Group 2 Qatar Prix Foy over C&D last month. Likely to be delivered late by Osin Murphy so is another who will need a clear run in the straight.
Alohi Alii made all to win a Group 2 at Deauville on his first run in Europe. He made all that day and there doesn’t seem to be a lot of early pace in the line-up which makes him interesting.
Francis Henri Graffard Trio
Gezora won the Prix de Diane (French Oaks) and ran a cracking prep for this when runner-up to Aventure in the Prix Vermeille. Will be spot on fitness wise, suited by some ease and can get into the money.
Daryz, a stablemate of Gezora, was a short head runner-up to Croix Du Nord last time. Stamina for 1m4f must be proven but I think he will improve for the step up in trip and will be suited by a sound surface. He’s another who could get into the places with a clear passage.
Quisisana won the Group 1 Prix Jean Romanet (1m 2f) at Deauville last time. The 5yo mare is ground versatile and she stays 1m4f. Has had a soundness issues in the past but if her trainer has her spot has each way claims.1
Of the rest Sosie was fourth last year but probably needs a career best to win. Trainer knows how to win this race though. Kalpana has become the forgotten horse, but she’s been trained for the race and has a good chance if there’s some ease in the ground.
Estrange has no chance on good or quicker ground but if the ground eases and it’s genuinely soft then she’s player.
Arc Summary:
This year’s Arc has real depth and no standout contender. Minnie Hauk could improve again racing against better quality opposition, but Aventure’s course-and-distance experience counts. Japan’s long wait may finally end, with Croix Du Nord looking their best hope. Graffard’s trio—Gezora, Daryz, and Quisisana—add further spice to the contest. And don’t dismiss Kalpana if she gets her ground Estrange needs ease in the ground and if she gets it has good claims. I haven’t had a bet yet waiting for the ground and even more importantly the draw is known. I’ll want a horse in a single-figure stall. It takes a special one, and plenty of luck, to win from out wide.
Fineform: Old Rules, New Game
Clive Holt’s Fineform method was revolutionary in the mid-1980s. It was simple: reward recent form, give credit for course and distance wins, note market confidence — and ignore the rest. Few punters had a structured way to rate horses back then. Holt’s system brought much-needed order and discipline.
Follow his maximum point horses — last-time-out winners, penultimate winners, plus a course or distance win — and you were in profit at SP for years. But as exposure grew, average odds fell.
Holt himself made plenty, not just from the method but from big adverts in the Sporting Life Weekender and Raceform Handicap Book, before moving onto premium-rate phone lines.
Fast forward to 2025. Racing is awash with data — sectionals, stride analysis, pace maps, speed figures — things Holt never had. The markets are sharper too, with obvious factors like recent form and C&D wins already factored in.
Yet Fineform still has a place. As a filter, it’s a useful tool for spotting horses with consistent form and proven suitability. That’s always a good starting point. You could even argue its principles are timeless: good recent runs, course-and-distance wins, and market confidence. In today’s sea of information, those basics often get lost. Too often we over-analyse what can be a simple puzzle. Holt’s formula reminds us: finding winners doesn’t always need to be complicated.
Is The Fineform Rating Method still profitable today?
At this point, you might be asking the question is it profitable today. I dug into horseracebase to find out.
On its own, it isn’t. But once you add a couple of filters, things get more interesting. For example: the course win must be within the last 180 days, and the horse should be 14/1 or shorter in the betting forecast.
Digging deeper and breaking it down by race code produced some interesting results.
Both National Hunt and the all-weather came out profitable when backing to Betfair SP.
On the all-weather, all the profits were concentrated at just two tracks — Chelmsford and Newcastle. At those venues, qualifiers showed a profit to both industry SP and Betfair SP.
Food for thought, then. And there’s one more filter that looks like it could further boost strike rate and profitability. I’ve started testing it, and so far, it looks promising. Sadly, I can’t use Horseracebase for this one, and for now I’ll keep it under wraps. Where’s the fun in giving it all away? Rest assured though, I’ll flag any qualifiers in this column so you can keep track to see how it’s performing.
There’s two maximum Fineform horses running today – Pilu Salisbury (3:50) and Coedana Newcastle (4:55). Both have won their last two starts and have won over C&D.
Thursday Racing
Nottingham
3:35 – Fantasy Master took this race last year from a 5lb higher mark. He shaped well when a ½-length 4th of 16 at Doncaster 18 days ago and handles soft ground. Set for another big run. Aberama Gold was a solid 4th of 25 to Candy in the Ayr Silver Cup last time. He’s now 1lb lower and this is slightly easier, so rates a danger. Consistent Bona Fortuna has filled the runner-up spot on his last three starts. First-time cheekpieces and a 5lb claim from Warren Fentiman can see him in the mix again.
4:05 – Rock N Roll Pinkie made it 6 wins from 18 on turf when scoring at York last month. A 2lb rise looks fair, and she’s a 3-time C&D winner. Conditions should suit, though a slowly run race might not play to her hold-up style.
5:10 – Spirit Genie was unlucky in a Chester seller 12 days ago and remains winless in 2025. He’s now 8lb below his last winning mark and is 1 from 1 over C&D. On a going day, with the yard in form, he looks handicapped to score.
Spirit Genie – £1.60 win – 7/1.
Nottingham plays host to five Grassroots Series Final’s all with £30,000 in guaranteed prize money.
Tomorrow I’ll be looking at the best of Friday’s Racing.
Good luck with your Thursday bets,
John