Hi all,
It’s the first Classic of the new season, the Qipco 2,000 Guineas (3.35) at Newmarket. Inside today’s main piece you can read my preview of the first colts classic.
This Saturday's column is arriving earlier than usual because I need to pick someone up from Manchester Airport.
City Of Troy unbeaten on three starts as a juvenile, will be a short price for the first colts Classic. I’m surprised given all the vibes coming out of Ballydoyle that he’s not even shorter than 4/6. Despite being odds on he’s not far off being a backable price.
City of Troy will face ten rivals on Saturday, and they include the number one British contender hope Rosallion, trained by Richard Hannon.
A nine race Newmarket undercard includes the Group 3 William Hill Palace House Stakes (2.25) and two cracking Heritage Handicaps with 16 runners in each race.
Punchestown Festival Final Day
Saturday’s also sees the final day of the Punchestown Festival and with it the curtain comes down on the Irish Jumps season. There are another two Grade 1’s on an eight race card.
Lossiemouth seeks a fourth Grade 1 success in the Mares Champion Hurdle (3.40). In the Champion Four Year Old Hurdle (4.50) Kargese runner-up in the Triumph Hurdle and in the Grade 1 at Aintree takes on the previously unbeaten Bottler'secret.
In addition to the two Grade 1’s there are three big field handicaps which look competitive races offering value betting opportunities. Even better tipsters like Tom Segal (Pricewise) & Paul Kealy probably won’t tip in the races. I have sent out Victor Value subscribers a comprehensive preview of the three Punchestown handicaps.
ITV Racing are covering four races from Newmarket, and one each from Goodwood & Thirsk on Saturday afternoon.
Newmarket
The weather forecast for Newmarket has been changing all week. However, an uncertain and quickly changing forecast always makes punting tricky.
I was planning on having a big swing at Saturday’s racing but there are few I fancy who probably want ground on the quick side of good.
Qipco 2000 Guineas Preview
City of Troy could be very special and if the rain arrives it won’t worry the colt who won the Dewhurst on soft ground on his final juvenile start. He’s the best of these on juvenile form and capable of even better as a 3-year-old. Ryan Moore will have him handy, and he’ll likely kick on two furlongs out and it will be a case of catch me if you can.
Nearest market rival Rosallion can be keen in his races and is no certainty to stay a mile. He also needs good or quicker ground. It was officially good to soft when he won at Longchamp last October but was much quicker. He’ll be ridden to beat City of Troy for pace, but I don’t think he will.
Of the rest Ghostwriter unbeaten on his three juvenile starts he ended last season with a win in the Group 2 Royal Lodge Stakes (1m) here. He’s a colt who is capable of better as 3-year-old and given how well he handled the track last season I’m glad connections bring him here. Apart from softish ground, which is a concern for me, he’s got solid each way claims at 16/1 or in the without the favourite market.
Inisherin has no chance on trends or official ratings and probably will prefer quick ground but he’s a colt I like and should continue to improve as a 3-year-old. Trainer Kevin Ryan has had five runners in the race and two have them have finished runner-up at 125/1 & 150/1 (see below).
So, The Ryan runners can outrun big odds. Inisherin could be one to back in the place market on the exchanges, especially if the ground dries out.
Qipco 2000 Guineas Verdict:
Nothing original from me sadly as I think City Of Troy wins and probably easily. Nearest market rival Rosallion may not even run if the going turns soft and I don’t he’ll get past City of Troy even if he does. Ghostwriter may not like soft ground either but at least he’s proven on the track and is overpriced at 16/1 with Bet365 & William Hill. You underestimate Kevin Ryan runners in the race at your peril. Whilst I don’t see his runner Inisherin being good enough to win, he’s useful and he could get into the places at big odds. He’s 40/1 with William Hill or 20/1 in the betting without the favourite market with same firm.
Qipco 2000 Guineas Selection:
3:35 – Ghostwriter – 16/1 @ Bet365 & William Hill (each way).
There will be a Sunday column this week when I'll be looking out at Qipco 1000 Guineas Day at Newmarket.
Good luck with your Saturday bets.
John