Hi all,
Inside today’s main piece you’ll find some trainer stats for the upcoming Coral Gold Cup Meeting at Newbury. Plus. I've looked at Saturday’s Rehearsal Chase at Newcastle.
A Lay Day Keeps the Worries Away!
A subscriber reached out to me yesterday, asking whether they should still lay Harbour Lake in the Pertemps Qualifier at Market Rasen, following the late non-runner status of early favourite Skyjack Hijack. I was out at the time and only had time to reply with a simple, “Yes.” I could have added that Harbour Lake was actually an even bigger lay for me without the early favourite in the field.
The decision proved to be the right one, as Harbour Lake had no response to the strong finish from Supreme Gift, who was given a never say day ride by Sam Twiston-Davies. Another successful lay bet in the books!
If you want to make consistent profits long term laying is the way to go.
Newbury Coral Gold Cup Meeting Stats
Here are the top trainers and jockeys at Newbury’s Coral Cup meeting in the last five years.
And the last two years.
Trainer Trends to Note
A quick glance at the above recent results highlights Nicky Henderson and Paul Nicholls as the trainers to follow over the past two years at this meeting.
Nicky Henderson: Backing all his runners would have resulted in a £6.89 loss to a £1 level stake. However, focusing on his non-handicap hurdlers sent off as favourites has been profitable. He’s had 5 winners from 6 runners (+£4.11) with an A/E (actual vs. expected) of 1.62.
Paul Nicholls: All five of his winners came in races between 2m 4f and 2m 7½f. From 9 runners, he’s had 5 winners (+£22.71), with an impressive A/E of 1.77. While the sample size is small, the trainer’s profile suggests this is more than coincidence.
It’s also worth keeping Venetia Williams and Nigel Twiston-Davies onside during this meeting.
Chris Gordon’s Record
One notable absence from the winner’s enclosure is Chris Gordon, who has had 13 runners at the meeting over the past five seasons without a single win. However, 8 (62%) of those runners have placed, and backing all his runners each way would have returned +£15.77 to a £1 level stake.
This suggests Gordon’s runners perform well at good odds, and when he does land a winner at this meeting, it could come at a big price. It’s clear he targets this fixture, making all his runners worth a second look.
Big Race in Focus: BetMGM Rehearsal Handicap Chase (Saturday)
In yesterday’s column I previewed Saturday’s Coral Gold Cup at Newbury. Today I’m off up to Newcastle to look at the BetMGM Rehearsal Handicap Chase, a Premier Handicap run over 2m 7½f. The winner will take home £39,865.
The 2023 race was won by L'Homme Presse carried top weight to victory before finishing fourth in last season’s Cheltenham Gold Cup. Unfortunately, last year’s Fighting Fifth Meeting was abandoned, so we’re looking at trends from the previous ten renewals (10 winners from 99 runners).
Key Trends
Top Weight: 3 winners from 11 runners (27%) +10.5 points profit, with 7 placing (64%).Seven of the last ten winners carried top weight or were within 8lbs of it.
Highest Class Run: Grade 1 performers: 7 winners from 47 runners (+64.5 points profit).
Headgear: All seven winners weren’t wearing headgear (7 from 36 runners; +75.5 points profit, 50% placed).
Official Rating (OR): All seven winners had an OR of 140+ (7 winners from 29 runners; +82.5 points, 55% placed).
Experience and Fitness:
All seven had 6+ career chase starts and 0-1 runs that season.
7 winners from 21 runners (33%) with a massive +90.5 points profit.
Note: These figures include a 66/1 winner.
Rehearsal Chase Trends Verdict:
The sample sizes are small and to an extent some would argue an element of backfitting has occurred. However, the result looks statistically significant and unlikely to be due to chance. This suggests that the observed overperformance is meaningful. Of course, that’s doesn’t mean the trends will predict this year’s winner.
Contenders
Bowtogreatness (5/1)
Recent Newbury winner is the ante post favourite after breaking a 0-12 record over fences. Front-running tactics worked well last time, and he’s a key player if that confidence boost sticks.
The Changing Man (11/2)
Fell when travelling well in the Badger Beer Handicap Chase last time. He’s still a maiden over fences but looks well-treated off 130. The yard has past success in this race.
Sam Brown (12/1)
At 12, he ran a cracker to finish third in the Charlie Hall Chase on his return. Good ground won’t be an issue, but he’d prefer more ease. Another bold effort is possible, but he also holds an entry in the Coral Gold Cup.
Marble Sands (10/1)
Landed the Listed Colin Parker Memorial Intermediate Chase last month. Stamina for 3m remains a question mark, but the good ground should suit, and he’s got a live chance if running.
Final Thoughts
The Newcastle ground is currently good, with little rain forecast. The field could shrink before final declarations. Bowtogreatness and The Changing Man look like strong contenders at this stage. Marble Sands has stamina to prove but the ground should be ok, and he’s got decent claims. The fact that the 12-year-old Sam Brown has good claims but that tells you all you need to tell you about the races quality.
If you want my Rehearsal Chase selections and for December, you can get then here.
Thursday Racing Preview
The race of the day is the Listed Racing TV Black Friday Offer Chase (12:40) at Thurles. Willie Mullins has dominated this race, winning 6 of the last 10 renewals, including last year. He has three of the five runners this year: Appreciate It, Nick Rockett, and Embassy Gardens. The latter two are both dropping in trip for their seasonal returns, and it's likely they will need further than 2m 6½f to show their best form.
Appreciate It is the pick of Paul Townend, and the drop in trip shouldn’t pose a problem on his return to action. While he’s not the same force he was over hurdles, a repeat of his ½-length second to Fastorslow in last season’s John Durkan Chase would make him hard to beat here. If Townend lets him bowl along in front, he could prove tough to catch.
Appreciate It’s biggest rival is likely to be Fil Dor, trained by Gordon Elliott. Fil Dor steps up in trip after a solid 6 ½ length second to Saint Sam in the Grade 2 Clonmel Oil Chase 21 days ago. His stamina is unproven at this level, but he shaped well at Clonmel and could find the extra distance suits. With his youthful legs, he may have the edge in the closing stages and has every chance of landing a race like this.
Good luck with your Thursday bets!
John