Royal Ascot – Day 1

Good morning all,

Pleased to say we're safely ensconced in our digs for the week (near Heathrow, the planes started an hour ago) and at the moment, as I type, there's bright sunshine out there. But it won't last, and later today, and more so overnight and tomrrow, thunderstorms are expected. So things will change.

Anyway, let's try and get off to a winning start for the week. Good luck all!

2.30 – Queen Anne Stakes

As difficult a race to try and work out as you’ll get all week, and we’re only on Race 1 of the first day.

I think we have to start with Mustashry, who did Punt readers a big favour when winning the Lockinge with a bit in hand. That’s the best bit of recent form on show, but whether he can hold off Laurens, who travelled like the best horse at Newbury but faded late, as if she needed the race, is another matter. The latter was having her first run of the season there and given how she came on plenty for her first run the season before, she has to rate a big danger. Even more so if there’s a bit of juice in the ground.

Back in third that day was last year’s winner Accidental Agent, showing that his win in this last year was no fluke and he too is going to come on plenty. Eve Johnson Houghton could barely contain her delight after the race, so well did he run. However, I’m not sure about the draw he’s got – stall 16 may not be ideal.

Barney Roy was a true Group 1 horse back in 2017 but exactly how much ability remains is open to question. Winning a Listed event at Longchamp last time is not going to frighten the best of these, and to me he looks poor value.

Le Brivido came in for some support for the Lockinge but he sweated up badly beforehand and didn’t see his race out. He’s another for whom the jury is currently out.

If – and only if – the rain does come back and turn it soft, I’d have a second look at Sharja Bridge. His win in the Balmoral Handicap here last year was quite astonishing, given how much trouble he found, and he clearly rates some way better than that. It’s been a mixed bag this year but soft ground would be a great leveller here, and I could see him running a race at a good price.

3.05 – Coventry Stakes

The first of the week’s 2yo guess-ups. Half the battle here is knowing what’s going to take a big leap forward form-wise and which of them can take the hustle and bustle of the pre-race build up in their stride.

I was very taken with Guildsman’s win at Goodwood a couple of weeks ago. He knew his job and the way he came clear late on to win an easy 6l marked him out as smart. But that was on soft ground, will he be as effective if it dries up a bit? He’s bred to want a mile plus in time, and unless we get a bit more rain, I fear this might be a bit too much of a speed test for him.

If it’s dry then Threat looks the one. The fact he went off a 10-1 outsider for his debut in a four horse affair at Newmarket and beat the 2-5 Godolphin hotpot Electrical Storm, clocking a very good speed figure in the process, rather tells you they thought he would need the run and that was confirmed by his trainer afterwards. An extra furlong here can only help his cause and if he can take another step forward from that, he’s probably the one to beat.

3.40 Kings Stand Stakes

It looks as if the front two, Battash and Blue Point, are the two to be with but bear in mind, you’ve got to go back to 2009 to find the last winning favourite here.

They are the class acts here, and if they run their races, you’d imagine one of them will take the prize. Preference for me is for Blue Point, who has an excellent record here and as much as he likes quick ground, he’s won on good to soft too, and the ground, whatever it is, ought not be a problem. Battash has his quirks but connections are convinced he wasn’t quite right last year, and his easy win in the Temple Stakes was impressive. But, given Jim Crowley was looking for cover there, stall 12 here might not be ideal, and he could run a bit too free if they can’t find a hiding hole for him early.

If the big guns fail to fire, it looks open. Mabs Cross is an admirable mare and was only a couple of lengths away in this last year. She never really looked that happy in the Temple Stakes and maybe she just had an off day. If she was to drift to double figures, she’d make some each-way appeal, especially if one of the firms is daft enough to go four places.

Similar comments apply to Fairyland, dropped back to sprinting after a couple of efforts over further. I always like that as an angle with O’Brien horses – see the likes of U S Navy Flag, Mozart and Stravinsky to name but three off the top of my head, and she went close to winning the Albany last year. Not beaten far in the 1000 Guineas this year, the drop back to the minimum will put plenty off, but at a big price, I’d give her a second look.

4.20 – St James Palace

There’s a clear argument to be made that if Phoenix Of Spain was trained by Godolphin, or O’Brien, you’d probably be looking at an odds-on shot here, such was his domination in the Irish 2000 Guineas last month. It was hard not to be impressed that performance and the was he came clear in the latter stages says he’s a true stayer at the trip. And it’s not like he had an easy time on the front end, which is just as well as he may have company here too. Bottom line – if he can repeat that win here, he probably wins.

Circus Maximus might have been more interesting but for stall 1 (you don’t want very low numbers on the round course, often hard to win from) as he gets a change of headgear here and ran respectably in the Derby. I didn’t think he got the credit he deserved for his Dee Stakes and presumably he’ll be ridden prominently over this trip.

Too Darn Hot hasn’t yet found his 2018 form and has 3l to find with Phoenix Of Spain on their latest running, and to my eyes he’s coming here as there’s nowhere else to go. If they run to the same form as last time it’s hard to see how he turns things around. Stall 2 may be no help either. I’d say Gosden’s other runner, King Of Comedy, might be a bigger danger as he’s improving fast and was impressive at Sandown, despite a bit of stargazing. He clearly has his quirks but then, as I was once told by a wise man, all the best horses do, so I’m not holding that against him. He needs another step forward but that’s entirely possible. He looks the best alternative to the favourite.

5.35 – Wolferton Stakes

Totally get the case for Magic Wand here, as her best effort in the past year probably came at this trip when second to Wild Illusion at Longchamp last October and she looked like she was coming back to form when third in the Man O War at Belmont last time out. Stall 14 isn't the negative it appears and as long as the rain stays away, she has a very good chance. But the market has found her already, and she's not much in the way of value.

I’m thinking Willie John might be the answer here. Winner of his first two starts, he’s clearly had his issues but he does look to be back on track now, and his second to Elarqam in a Listed event at Goodwood (nicely clear of the third, the useful Thundering Blue) was a career best. As a hold-up horse, he’ll need a bit of luck in running, but there’s more to come from him for sure, and he does have some pace on his outside to drag him into the race. I think he can reverse form with Elarqam here and the price is right.

My bets today –

2.30 – Laurens (e/w 5 places Hills)

3.40 – Fairyland (small e/w 4 places Skybet)

4.20 – Phoenix Of Spain (win)

5.30 – Willie John (e/w 4 places, plenty of books)

Good luck with all your bets today,

David.