Hi all,
Inside today’s main piece you’ll find more Royal Ascot trends. Plus, I’ve had a look at one of the two Class 2 handicaps on this afternoon’s York card.
Daily Punt: Royal Ascot 2024
This year, my contributions to the Daily Punt will be brief columns for each day of Royal Ascot. While I won't be providing detailed previews, my Royal Ascot Placepot picks will be included.
Highlights:
- Daily Columns: Quick insights for each day of Royal Ascot.
- Placepot Picks: My daily Placepot selections will be featured.
For those interested in my comprehensive write-ups and betting advice, you can access them here for a one off £19.99. Join before Saturday, and you'll receive this weekend's ITV Racing selections for free.
Whilst I might not be providing readers of this column with Royal Ascot race previews this year I haven’t skimped on the research.
Royal Ascot Weather and Ground Conditions
The advanced weather forecast suggests a cool week with minimal rain, except for an anticipated 8mm on Thursday. Currently, the ground at Ascot is good, and it’s expected to remain so if the forecast holds. However, given the unpredictable summer weather, it's wise to stay updated on conditions as the meeting approaches.
More Royal Ascot Trends
Before I take a quick look at Friday’s racing here’s some more Royal Ascot trends. Today I’m focusing on the draw and market.
Draw:
The draw can play a big part in the outcome of races at Royal Ascot on both the straight and round courses.
Twelve months ago, there was a real draw bias in the handicaps on the straight course.
As the ground dried out as the week progressed the more the higher drawn horses came to the fore in all races on the straight course. It will be interesting to see if this trend continues in 2024 given the ground isn’t likely to be as quick as 12 months ago. My hunch is that provided the ground is good or quicker it will. However, if the ground is softer then the advantage will switch to lower drawn horses.
Moving onto races on the round course.
Looking at the handicaps run over the round course at the meeting since 2018.
Looking at stalls 1 to 6. Just Hukum who turned out to be a Group 1 horse in handicap when winning the King George V Stakes has prevailed from a low draw in races from 1m 2f to 1m 6f. That’s just 1 winner from 96 runners -83, 13 places (expected winners = 5.99). So horses drawn in the low stalls have been at a serious disadvantage. I suspect it will take a very well handicapped horse to win from stalls 1 to 6 once again this year.
Betting Market
Favourites
Let’s begin by looking at the fate of the favourites at Royal Ascot since 2018.
As those figures reveal, it's been tough work for favourite backers. We could have expected 65 winners but ended up with just 55.
And it’s not been much better for favourite backers in non-handicap races either.
Breaking it down by year:
2022 was a good year for favourite backers and they came out on top but take that year out and it’s been slim pickings for followers of the ‘jolly’ in the last six years.
Breaking it down by day:
Both Wednesday & Thursday have been excellent days for layers of the favourite. Although Friday’s have seen favourite backers in profit.
Second Favourites
Second favourites haven’t performed much better either. Thirty-three second favourites have prevailed at Royal Ascot in the past six seasons.
Fifteen of those winners have come in Group 2 & Group 3 contests and that’s the only profitable angle for second favourite backers.
Let’s complete today’s Royal Ascot trends segment with a couple of hopefully profitable angles found in horseracebase.
Royal Ascot Handicap Angles
3-year-old + handicaps.
So how can you catch those big-priced winners in the 3-year-old + handicaps at Royal Ascot.
There have been 37 qualifying races in the past 5 years.
Unlike the 3-year-old handicaps at the meeting (see below). To make a profit you need to concentrate on those horses who weren’t well fancied on their last start with those returned 16/1 & 50/1 producing the following set of results.
Breaking those results down by year.
So, apart from a poor 2022, some excellent profits banked in five of the last six seasons to Betfair SP.
You can tighten things up by adding a couple of filters:
Age: 3yo to 7yo
Class Last Race: Class 2.
A profit banked every year apart from 2022 (0 winners from 20 bets, 1place). The fallow year was the one where the front end of the market held sway at the meeting. If that occurs in 2024 then following this angle will put a hole in your betting bank. However, if it holds firm once more than just one winner can see you in front over the week.
3-year-old only handicaps
Since 2018 there have been 26 handicap races confined to 3-year-old’s.
Horses wearing headgear are – 1 winner from 91 runners -70, 6 places.
Horses returned 13/2 & bigger last time out are – 1 winner from 238 runners -225, 21 places.
That last trend is staggering and has filtered out 49% of the total runners in the 3-year-old only handicaps.
Don’t be concerned about horses stepping up from Class 4 or Class 5 races last time. Such qualifiers have produced 18 winners from 199 runners +40, 46 places (BFSP +133.06) and have performed 21% above market expectations.
Combine those trends together and you get the following profitable angle.
I will complete my look at the Royal Ascot trends in Monday’s column with an emphasis on individual races.
Friday Racing
It’s the first of two days of racing at both York and Sandown. There’s a couple of interesting Class 2 handicaps at York and I’m previewing one of them here.
York
4:10 – Handicap (Class 2) – 1m 2 ½ f
Machete
Machete showed promise by outperforming his 20/1 odds when finishing 4th in the Zetland Gold Cup at Redcar last month on his debut for David O'Meara. Despite not getting the best of runs 2f out, he closed well and gets a 6lb pull in the weights with the winner, Arthur's Realm. The forecast rain won’t be a problem, making Machete a strong contender.
Oviedo
Oviedo had a productive season last year, proving himself a useful handicapper. Notably, he finished runner-up in a valuable C&D handicap at the Ebor Festival and was 4th of 34 in the Cambridgeshire, doing best of those drawn low. Likely needed the run when last of six to Passenger in a Group 2 at Chester on his seasonal return last month. While the soft ground is a concern, he's fairly handicapped and should go close if conditions suit.
Have Secret
Have Secret showed his class last season, winning at Nottingham in May and running well in valuable handicaps at Newbury, Royal Ascot, and Glorious Goodwood without securing a win. Although he has the quality to be competitive here, he may need this first run after a 245-day break.
Scampi
Scampi, a winner at this track last May and at the Shergar Cup in August, shouldn't be ruled out. However, this is his first run for 244 days, and both of last year's successes came over 1m 4f. This distance might be slightly short for the 6-year-old, but he could still make an impact if fully fit.
Summary
Top Pick: Machete. With a favourable weight adjustment and no issues with forecasted rain, Machete stands a good chance to perform well.
Solid Contender: Oviedo. If the ground isn't too soft, he's well-handicapped and could go close.
Potential Threats: Have Secret and Scampi. Both have the class but may need the run after long layoffs.
Betting Advice
Machete looks like a solid each-way bet given his recent form and favourable conditions.
Oviedo should be considered for a win bet if the ground isn't too soft.
Good luck with your Friday bets.
John