Morning all,
We're just a day away from Royal Ascot. I’m not talking about the fashion, the history, the pageantry and the overwhelming occasion. It's all about the racing with 30 races, including 18 Group races and a host of competitive handicaps.
Fingers crossed the weather should be kinder than it was last week. The going as of Sunday night is good to soft on the straight course and soft in places on the round course.
Some rain or showers are being for forecast for Tuesday & Wednesday, but the rest of the week looks set to be dry.
This Monday’s article is devoted to Royal Ascot and you can read my thoughts inside.
Royal Ascot: The Countdown Begins
In all the excitement of another Royal Ascot it’s wise to not to get to carried away on the betting front. I certainly won’t be betting in every race however tempting it maybe.
The final declarations are out for the first day of Royal Ascot so let's take a look at the Tuesday card.
2:30 – Queen Anne Stakes – Group 1
There can’t be many flat race meetings in the world that begin with a Group 1 race. A field of 16 runners have been declared for this years renewal. Which is slightly higher than the average.
Horses aged 6+ are – 0 winners from 25 runners 4 placed.
Horses with Ascot winning form are – 5 winners from 28 runners 12 placed – That’s 50% of the winners from 25% of the total runners.
Six of the last ten winners of the race, had their last run in the Lockinge Stakes and nine from that race are declared to run here.
The ante-post favourite is the Aidan O’Brien trained Le Brivido who looked a shade unlucky in the run when 5th of 14 in the Lockinge Stakes.
3:05 – Coventry Stakes – Group 2
A field of 17 juveniles are declared to go to post for this Group 2 contest.
Horses sent off 22/1 & bigger are – 0 winners from 82 runners 3 placed.
Aidan O’Brien is the most winning trainer in the past ten years – 3 winners from 16 runners 8 placed. He sends over four for this year’s renewal.
Nine of the last ten winners came into the race with a 100% career strike rate – 9 winners from 72 runners 19 placed.
Arizona, trained by Aidan O’Brien, is the bookies ante-post favourite.
3:40 – King Stand Stakes – Group 1
A field of 12 are set to go to post for this 5f race.
Horses sent off 22/1 & bigger are – 0 winners from 82 runners 5 placed
Horses with 1+ course wins are – 6 winners from 45 runners 8 placed
Six of the last ten winners of the race had won a Group 1 or 2 race during their career.
Last year’s runner-up Battaash heads the ante post market just ahead of last years’ winner Blue Point. Mabs Cross, third in 2018, could get closer this time with more ease in the ground.
4:20 – St James’ Palace Stakes – Group 1
The third Group 1 on the card and 11 runners are set to go to post for this year’s renewal.
Nine of the last ten winners of the race were in the first three in the betting.
Favourites are 7 winners from 11 runners 8 placed and have performed 31% better than market expectations.
Both John Gosden’s two winners had won their last start. He saddles two in this year’s race: To Darn Hot & King of Comedy. The latter won the Listed Stakes at Sandown on his last start like last years winner Without Parole.
Horses with no wins at the distance are – 1 winner from 53 runners 14 placed
Irish 2,000 Guineas winner Phoenix Of Spain heads the ante post market from Too Darn Hot.
5:00 – Ascot Stakes – Handicap
The only handicap on today's card and a maximum field of 20 stayers are set to go to post for this 2m 4f race.
Willie Mullins is the most winning trainer with 4 winners from 14 runners 7 placed. All four winners came into the race having run over hurdles on their last start.
Six of the last ten winners of the race had won their last start.
Runners without a win at 2m+ are – 0 winners from 52 runners 5 placed
Eight of the last ten winners had raced between 2m 4f and 3m during their career.
Runners returned 14/1 & bigger are – 0 winners from 121 runners 17 placed.
With six of the last ten winners of the race being trained in Ireland, any horses coming across the Irish Sea, need considering. Franke Dettori is an interesting jockey booking for the Gordon Elliott trained Batts Rock.
Despite the size of the field, it’s certainly been a race for runners at the front end of the betting.
Not surprisingly, Willie Mullins has the ante post favourite in Buildmeupbuttercup.
5:35 – Wolferton Stakes – Listed
A 1m 2f listed race concludes day one.
Runners aged 5+ are – 2 winners from 80 runners 10 placed.
Eight of the last ten winners finished in the first three on their last start.
Runners returned 14/1 & bigger are – 1 winner from 84 runners 11 placed whilst eight winners were in the first five in the betting.
Trainer John Gosden is the winning most trainer with 4 winners from 10 runners + 18.75 6 placed. He sole runner this year is Star Of Bengal.
Aidan O’Brien has had just three runners in the race with Sir Isaac Newton winning it in 2016. He saddles the filly Magic Wand who won last year’s Ribblesdale Stakes over 1m 4f.
Finally…
Three things worth noting:
1. High Drawn Runners Dominate The 1m 4f handicaps
Looking at the last five Royal Ascot’s the two 1m 4f Handicaps have been won by horses in the top half of the draw. Runners drawn in the first half are – 0 winners from 91 runners 16 placed.
2. Jamie Spencer
Jamie Spencer has been the ‘go to' jockey for the mile handicaps at the meeting, having had 4 winners from 13 rides 31% +48 7 placed 54% in the past 5-years. Keep an eye on his rides in the mile handicaps.
3. French Trained Runners
French trainers are sending over a strong set of contenders for this year’s meeting and I will be keeping their runners onside over the next five-days. Since 2014 French trained runners are 6 winners from 45 runners 13% +7.38 A/E 1.16 15 placed 33%.
Hopefully, I have given you an idea of how I will be approaching the week. If you want my Royal Ascot race analysis and selections. You can join me here
Royal Ascot Selection:
There’s no Monday selection today with my focus on Royal Ascot but I have one for Tuesday.
3:05 – Coventry Stakes
Royal Lytham – Comes into the race on the back of a recent winning racecourse debut at Navan. The step up to 6f should suit the son of Gleneagles who can surprise his better fancied stablemate Arizona.
Royal Lytham – 16/1 @ Ladbrokes – each way (paying 4 places 1/5 odds)
Here’s wishing you a profitable week.
Thanks for the Advice I always take note of a wise man.