Royal Ascot Stats

Hi all,

On the eve of Royal Ascot, I thought I would take a bit of a dive into the Royal Ascot stats.

The Ascot racecourse is best known for hosting the Royal Ascot meeting, which takes place over five days in June each year. It is one of the most prestigious events in British horse racing, attracting both royalty and horse racing enthusiasts from around the world.

The round course is a right-handed, triangular circuit of fourteen furlongs, with a run-in of 2 ½ furlongs.

There is a straight mile course and the Old mile course which joins the round course in Swinley Bottom. There may be a downhill run into Swinley Bottom and relatively short run-in from the final turn, but Ascot remains a galloping track.

Jockeyship is key to success on both the straight and round courses. Despite the relaying of the straight course. I still prefer horses that are more patiently ridden in the big field handicaps than those at the sharp end. On the round course it’s not easy to come through rivals in big field in the straight so positioning is key.

Royal Ascot Stats

I’m keeping the stats general starting with one for favourite backers.

Favourites:

45 winners from 171 runners 26% -23.6 A/E 0.86, 91 placed 53%.

The competitive nature of Royal Ascot is clear from the fate of the favourites at the meeting  since 2017.

Trainers:

Here are the top performing trainers with three or more winners at Royal Ascot since 2017.

Aidan O’Brien is the top performing trainer numerically, nine ahead of his nearest rivals Charlie Appleby and John Gosden.

I searched for angle for Aidan O’Brien runners but in all truth, it wasn’t easy to find one. He’ll have winners at this year’s meeting, but you can’t back them blind unless you want to lose plenty of money.  The best angle I could come up and its slightly backfitted is this:

Another trainer possibly worth noting in handicaps at the meeting is Charlie Fellowes. Fellowes is 3 winners from 16 runners +73, 7 placed 44% with handicappers here since 2017.  If you concentrate on his qualifiers 33/1 & under

And never won at the distance of the race.

Jockey’s

Here are the top performing jockey’s with five or more runners at Royal Ascot since 2017.

Ryan Moore is 12 clear of his nearest rivals Frankie Dettori and William Buick.  Three familiar names at the top of the jockey listings but sneaking into fourth place is Danny Tudhope.

Tudhope is clearly performing much better than market expectations and had four winners at last year’s meeting and in 2019.

It’s worth noting he was 0 wins from 16 rides, 1 place in 2021 but 13 of those rides were on horses 16/1 & bigger. Despite his 2021 figures he remains a jockey worth noting at the meeting.

Draw (Round Course)

You would expect that low draw near the rail would be a big advantage on the round course but that’s certainly not been the case in races over 1m 4f. Since 2018 there have been 30 handicaps run over that distance.  Here’s the draw in those races by segment.

Of the 30 winners just two winners have been drawn in the first quarter of the draw.  Digging further those drawn in stalls 1 & 2 are – 0 winners from 53 runners, 7 placed.

Now of course we’re dealing with small samples but there is a good reason why those drawn low have done poorly. A jockey drawn low has big call to make early in the race. Do they use up some of their mounts energy to try to get a prominent position? Or do they take a pull and end up riding for luck?

Granted Hukum defied stall 4 to win the King George V Stakes (Handicap) in 2020 but he’s won a Group 1 race since.

There also looks to be something interesting in regards the draw over 1m 2f. Looking at the non-Group 1 contest over the distance.

Those horses in the second quarter of the draw are outperforming market expectations by some way. That will be something to note again this year.

Draw (Straight Course)

Looking at the handicaps on the straight course since 2017.

Winners have been equally spread across the track. Granted looking at the pace stats you could argue that its marginally better to be drawn middle to high on the straight course. However, I think it’s more pace dependent and I don’t see a draw bias on the straight course.

Draw Verdict:

Personally, I will need a compelling reason to back a horse in either of the 1m 4f handicaps at the meeting that’s drawn in the first quarter of the draw and totally avoid anything drawn in stalls 1 & 2. Once more over 1m 2f I would be looking to take on those drawn in the first quarter and keeping onside those in the second quarter.

Royal Ascot Trends Verdict:

I was really hoping to find serious some ‘killer’ stats, but the draw apart over 1m 2f/1m 4f I couldn’t really find any. There is of course the open to the charge of backfitting one for Aidan O’Brie. However, that one aside and not considering individual race trends it looks slim pickings on the stats front.

Cheers

John