Hi all,
Inside today’s main piece, I’ve shared my thoughts on one of Saturday’s handicap chases at Sandown, including a 25/1 shot that could offer great value.
But first, let’s delve into a topic that’s increasingly relevant—information overload.
Information Overload and the Case for Betting Early
The digital world now offers more information than the world’s libraries combined. For horse racing punters, this means having unprecedented data at their fingertips. In the pre-digital age, it was often said you couldn’t have too much information. However, in today’s world of information overload, this idea no longer holds true.
The sheer volume of available data creates a paradox: having too much information can be as problematic as having too little. Critically evaluating all the sources, we come across is practically impossible—it would leave no time to actually act on the valuable insights we find. This is where critical ignoring becomes essential.
Critical ignoring is more than simply not paying attention. It’s about practising mindful habits to focus on relevant, valuable data while filtering out the noise. This skill is especially vital for punters and bettors who face an avalanche of information daily.
A Missed Opportunity: The Dockpickedme Example
A perfect example of this concept came in last Wednesday’s column. I flagged Dockpickedme, the eventual winner of the Great Yorkshire Handicap Chase, as value at 25/1. Unfortunately, I was preoccupied with other matters and didn’t follow up on it. However, even if I had, I probably would have waited, hoping for more information closer to the race. This hesitation—wanting to collect more data—could have caused me to miss out on a great price. It highlights how waiting for additional information often works against us, reinforcing the importance of acting early when the value is clear.
Insights from Research: Betting Early Pays Off
A recent study, The Importance of Betting Early, sheds further light on how information timing impacts betting outcomes. Using over a million online bets on Italian Major Soccer League games, the researchers found that early bettors systematically outperformed those who waited closer to game time. Early bettors seemed better at filtering the noise, relying on straightforward prediction methods like team rankings and recent performance.
As game day approaches, the influx of noisy information appears to overwhelm late bettors, leading to inefficient processing and poorer forecasting. The study’s conclusion struck a chord: “The poorer forecasting performance of late bettors is attributed to inefficient processing of information.” This aligns with the concept of critical ignoring—early bettors succeed because they focus on core insights rather than being swayed by the flood of last-minute data.
Conclusion
In an era where information is abundant, the ability to ignore irrelevant data is just as important as identifying valuable insights. For punters, this means adopting disciplined habits, focusing on core metrics, and making decisions early. By practising critical ignoring and avoiding the distractions of last-minute noise, punters can enhance their chances of success. The lesson is clear: sometimes, less truly is more, and betting early might just give you the edge you need.
Sandown Saturday
The final decision on whether Sandown will host an all-chase card on Saturday will be made Thursday morning. Given the uncertainty over the hurdle track, I’ve avoided assessing the handicap hurdles on the original schedule. However, I’ve taken a closer look at two of the handicap chases on the card.
Virgin Bet Masters Handicap Chase (3:42) – 3m
The five-day entries suggest this could be an intriguing Sandown contest, with several horses catching the eye.
Gustavian: A consistent performer and on a fair mark, but his record of 1 win from 20 starts over fences raises concerns.
O’Connell: In cracking form with back-to-back wins, including the Lincolnshire National at Market Rasen. Up 9lb for his latest success, but yard among the winners and the 8/1 available looks fair.
Dreaming Blue: Just 1lb higher than his Ludlow win two starts back and is worth considering.
Escaria Ten: Formerly useful for Gordon Elliott, he hinted at a revival when finishing 4th in the Cross Country race at Cheltenham in December. He’s well-handicapped on his old form and could be a player here.
Pats Fancy: A promising staying novice in the 2021-22 season, has only had two starts since the 2022 Cheltenham Festival. Not the easiest to keep sound. He needed the run at Chepstow in December, but if he can bounce back, his current 25/1 odds could offer big value.
Arizona Cardinal: Impressed when winning the Topham over the National fences in April. Below par in two starts since, he probably didn’t stay behind Escaria Ten last time. The drop back to 3m should help, and the yard’s previous success in this race (2019) is a positive sign. However, he also holds an entry at Musselburgh (2:50) on Saturday so could go there.
Masters Handicap Chase Verdict:
Escaria Ten appeals off a good mark after showing signs of revival at Cheltenham. Arizona Cardinal is another to consider with the drop back to 3m likely to suit, while O’Connell is solid but faces a tougher task off his higher mark. Pats Fancy would be intriguing if rediscovering his old form.
My final race pick(s) will come from one of the above horses. If you want them and for the Dublin Racing Festival, you can get them here.
Earlier on the Sandown card, the Virgin Bet Every Saturday Money Back Handicap Chase (2:00) is worth a look. I’m convinced Etalon is being brought along with a target in mind. An eyecatcher at Cheltenham two starts back, he unseated his rider when in the rear at Windsor 13 days ago. Progressive over fences last season, he looks well-treated on his C&D success in February.
Robbie Wilders, the Ante-Postman in the Racing Post, highlighted him in his weekly column, and the 9/2 available earlier in the week has now gone. He’s into a best-priced 3/1, which still reflects his strong claims but does reduce the value. If the market continues to contract, I might have to look for alternatives.
In Friday’s column I’ll be looking at Lingfield’s Surrey National.
Good luck with your Thursday bets.
John