Hi all,
Inside today’s main piece I continue my look ahead to the weekend’s big races.
Looking Ahead to the Weekend
Another strong weekend of racing lies ahead. It kicks off on Friday with the first of two days at Sandown’s Tingle Creek meeting. There are two Grade 2 contests on the opening card, although they have attracted only four and five runners respectively
Saturday brings Tingle Creek Day at Sandown. The feature is the Grade 1 Betfair Tingle Creek Chase (3:00). At Aintree we also have the Becher Chase, which I previewed in yesterday’s column.
ITV Racing show five races from Sandown and three from Aintree on Saturday. On Sunday ITV4 cover six races: four from Kelso, where it's Scottish Borders National Day, and two from Huntingdon, featuring the Grade 2 Peterborough Chase.
Sandown: Tingle Creek Set for a Cracking Clash
Tingle Creek was a flamboyant two-miler who excelled at Sandown but never warmed to Cheltenham. Had the Champion Chase been run at Sandown, he would almost certainly have won it.
Il Etait Temps, from Willie Mullins’ yard, heads the market. He slammed Jonbon in a Grade 1 over C&D in April and returned with a comfortable win at Clonmel.
L'Eau du Sud made a seamless move into open company when thrashing Jonbon by 15 lengths in the Grade 2 Shloer Chase at Cheltenham. He also won the Grade 1 novice on this card last year, so Sandown won’t concern him.
Jonbon bids for a third Tingle Creek. His defeat by Il Etait Temps in April was his first reverse at Sandown in six starts. He should get closer to L'Eau du Sud on better ground and is always respected at this venue.
If all three stand their ground, it promises to be a cracking renewal.
Henry VIII Novices’ Chase: Rising Stars Ready to Clash
The Betfair Henry VIII Novices' Chase (1:50) is the other Grade 1 at Sandown on Saturday.
Top juvenile hurdler Lulamba took advantage of the 4yo allowance to make a winning chase debut at Exeter last month. He jumped fine, but with several fences omitted due to low sun it wasn’t a test of jumping. Even so, he remains a smart prospect, and Nicky Henderson has a strong recent record in this – Jonbon (2022) and Altior (2016) both won it.
His jumping will be tested far more on Saturday if he faces the likes of Be Aware, Lump Sum and Alnilam.
As of 12:36 on Wednesday, Lulamba was 8/11. On what he’s achieved so far over fences he shouldn’t be that short. He’s priced on reputation, with the layers clearly thinking he’s the next Sir Gino.
Race Planning Frustrations Continue
This year’s Tingle Creek clashes to a degree with Sunday’s Grade 2 Peterborough Chase at Huntingdon. Indeed, Jonbon holds entries in both races.
The Becher Chase and the London National face the same problem, with several horses entered in both. Add in Saturday’s Welsh National Trial (2m7f) at Chepstow and Sunday’s Scottish Borders National at Kelso. And to top it off, there are two more staying handicap chases on Friday at Sandown (3m) and Exeter (3m6f).
As I’ve said many times, the horse population simply can’t service this many staying chases. The fixture list needs major pruning, but that won’t happen for a couple of years. Until then, expect small fields and that’s not good for the levy.
Mydaddypaddy: A Supreme Favourite in Name Only
Mydaddypaddy stretched his unbeaten run to three when taking the “Introductory” Hurdle at Haydock yesterday. We didn’t learn anything new about the 4yo he looked much the same as he did when winning on his hurdle debut at Carlisle, you can watch the closing stages of his success here, yet he’s now been cut to 5/1 for the Sky Bet Supreme Novices' Hurdle. We’ll know about him after his next run which looks likely to be the Grade 1 Formby Hurdle at Aintree on Boxing Day.
There’s plenty to like. He’s an imposing son of Walk In The Park. He jumps well and clearly has a touch of class. But the price? That’s harder to warm to.
With the sheer depth of talent Willie Mullins unleashes every winter, Mydaddypaddy is arguably the weakest ante-post favourite for any Festival race right now. He might well win the Supreme day, but he hasn’t shown enough to justify trading as short as 5/1 at the beginning of December.
Yesterday’s selection Carrigmoorna Rowan plugged on for fourth at Haydock, but he never travelled and looked a hard ride. Given how well backed he was, it wasn’t a good performance.
Thursday Racing
Wincanton
2:40 – I thought I’d found a dark one at Wincanton, but the bookies reacted to my £10 and he’s halved in price. Joe Cotton has run to form on both starts this season. The visor goes on for the first time and Chad Bament claims 7lb. He’s 4 from 14 (24%) when teaming up with Jeremy Scott. The trainer came off the cold list last Saturday with Golden Ace and Joe Cotton can enhance his good record with chasers at this track. Scott complicates things by also running Pilsdon Pen, who returns from 232 days off and has Wincanton form figures of 1121.
Toothless is back from an even longer absence – 571 days. He jumped well when winning a Plumpton handicap chase on his last start. The question is how much ability he retains after such a layoff. Although I’ve backed Joe Cotton, I think Toothless is the better value now, despite the break.
3:10 – I’m Your Buckaroo, a winner over hurdles (3m1f) in May, has run well on both chase starts. The step up to 3m2½f should suit and there’s more to come from him.
Special John made a winning chase and stable debut at Exeter 17 days ago. He’s up 7lb for a short-head success, but he idled in front so had more in hand than the margin suggests. The 6yo can improve again and he’s the one to beat.
Good luck with your Thursday bets.
John
If Mydaddypaddy was trained by Mullins, he would be even shorter after those two performances.