Hi all,
Inside today’s main piece I’m looking at Saturday’s big race action with a short preview of the November Handicap.
Since 2008 the November Handicap has attracted an average of 22 runners. Indeed, apart from 2016 when the race was run on unseasonably good to firm ground there hasn’t been less than 20 runners.
The decision last weekend to switch the race to Newcastle looked a hasty one at the time which I said at the time, and it looks worse now.
You have primed a horse to run in the race on likely soft ground and its gets switched to a totally different surface.
What do you do?
Well connections have voted with their feet and just 14 are set to go to post for the race now to be run on the all-weather.
It just goes to show how low that the traditional flat season finale has gone that I heard few if any voices in the racing media question the decision to switch the meeting so early with little rain forecast for the week.
Doncaster could have raced on Saturday, and I doubt the ground would have been worse than soft. They could have let nature take its course and if the meeting had to be cancelled then so be it.
Continuing the weather theme.
Aintree’s Grand National course passed a Friday morning inspection so Saturday’s Grand Sefton can be run over the National Fences. Eleven are set to go to post for the Aintree feature.
Although field sizes are much better than they were at this time last year. I sense a reluctance from some of the bigger trainers to risk their better horses on very testing ground. You can understand why. Would you really want a horse to have to hard a race at such an early stage in the season when they have bigger prizes in mind.
I’m covering both the Aintree and Wincanton cards for Victor Value subscribers. If you haven’t already done so you can join for November for a one off £10 here.
Gerri’s Back
Just four have been declared for the best quality race on Saturday the Grade 1 Ladbrokes Champion Chase at Down Royal (2:20). However, the four are Gerri Colombe, Conflated, Minella Indo and last year’s winner Envoi Allen.
It’s race that might be short on numbers but certainly not quality and its an intriguing one. It’s a case of Gordon Elliott versus Henry De Bromhead as the two trainers train the four runners.
Former Cheltenham Gold Cup winner Minella Indo made a winning seasonal return at Punchestown last month. He looks the main pace angle with Conflated likely to be close-up. Top novice chaser Gerri Colombe was installed the bookies the ante post favourite. The Gold Cup second favourite has clear claims. However, will trainer Gordon Elliott want the 7-year-old to have too hard a race on his return to action. I’m not so sure. By the end of the season, I expect him to be the best of the four but maybe not on Saturday.
Envoi Allen loves Down Royal four wins from four runs, and this is his Gold Cup. If Rachel Blackmore can get the 9-year-old into a nice rhythm, like she did last year, I think he can defend his crown. That said I wouldn’t be surprised if any of the four one.
Newcastle
3:45 – Virgin Bet November Handicap – 1m 4½ f
My long term fancy for the race didn’t get declared. Looking at the race it’s not one I’m really getting excited about.
Local Dynasty was in decent form earlier in the summer finishing 3rd of 15 in the Golden Gates Handicap at Royal Ascot and then 2½ lengths 4th of 12 at Newmarket when last seen in action in July. First start at 1m 4f for the 3-year-old and he’s been gelded. All-weather debut here but his dam won on the polytrack and dirt at Meydan so should handle the surface.
Chillingham a winner on seasonal return at Thirsk in April had looked a handicap winner in waiting when a head 2nd of 7 at Ripon in July. A good 4th of 14 at Hamilton 78 days ago. He's placed on the tapeta at Southwell and is one to consider with the tongue tie on for the first time/
Teumessias Fox is 2-4 on the all-weather and won here (1m 2f) last year. Had looked set for a good season when winning at Kempton and following up at Newmarket in the spring. A respectable 3 ¾ length 5th of 12 at Windsor when dropped back to 1m 2f last time and is weighted to be in the mix.
Of those at bigger odds to consider. You will probably do worse than look at Prydwen. The 5-year-old was well beaten on heavy ground in last year’s race. But he’s a dual winner on the tapeta at Wolverhampton and a reproduction of his head second 2nd of 11 at Ayr in June wouldn’t see him thereabouts. Gets the first time cheekpieces and could get into the frame at big odds.
Saturday Selection:
Doncaster
3:45 – Prydwen.
Good luck with your Saturday bets.
John