Saturday Racing: Key Contenders on Soft Ground

Hi all,

Inside today’s main piece, I’m looking at Saturday’s ITV racing.

ITV Racing will broadcast five races from Haydock, where the feature race of a strong-looking card is the Group 1 Betfair Sprint Cup (3:35). In addition, there are two competitive handicaps from Ascot and two key races from Kempton. Kempton’s card, the richest of its all-weather season, features the Group 3 September Stakes (2:35) and the Unibet London Mile Series Final Handicap (3:15).

All in all, it’s a competitive Saturday of racing offering plenty of betting opportunities. I sent out my Saturday preview and selections to Victor Value subscribers on Friday afternoon. The weekend began well on Friday with a winner at Haydock.  If you want my selections for the month, you can get them here.

Haydock

Haydock was due a dry and very warm day on Friday, and it looks like Saturday will be similar. If the sun and heat have arrived, the “soft” in the going description could disappear, and we might even see ground on the fast side of good. But with Haydock, you never really know for sure!

I previewed the Betfair Sprint Cup in Wednesday's column, which you can read here. Instead of going over that race again, here’s my take on the opening race on ITV.

1:15 – Best Odds On The Betfair Exchange Superior Mile Stakes (Group 3) – 1m

Cicero's Gift returned from a 382-day absence to win a Class 2 handicap at Sandown under top weight in July. He was well below par when last of seven on quicker ground at Goodwood last time. More than capable of winning this if the ground eases, but there’s a question mark over whether he’ll even run if the ground continues to dry out?

Holloway Boy finished ½ length behind Cicero’s Gift at Sandown and has stayed in form, placing third in valuable big-field handicaps at Goodwood and York. If the ground dries out, I fancy him to finish ahead of Cicero's Gift this time, despite being slightly worse off at the weights.

Clove Hitch looked a Listed/Group 3 filly in the making when winning at Newbury on good-to-firm ground two starts back. The 3-year-old didn’t seem to enjoy the soft going at Sandown last time but is still relatively unexposed and should be a major contender in an open-looking race.

Ascot

It’s the complete opposite situation at Ascot to Haydock, where torrential rain on Thursday turned the ground soft for its Friday’s card. I’m going to assume the going will be good to soft at best, and potentially even genuinely soft.

2:10 – Chapel Down Handicap (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) – 1m 4f

French Duke was well-backed when securing his first career win in a Goodwood handicap 38 days ago. He’s been raised 9lb in the weights, but the son of Sea The Stars probably hasn’t hit his ceiling just yet. The only concern would be the softer ground, which may not suit him, but on form, he’s the one to beat. The yard has a good record in this race, winning it in both 2019 and 2020.

The Reverend looks the pick of William Haggas’s two runners. He won a Newmarket maiden on heavy ground last November and showed his liking for softer conditions again when finishing second at Hamilton 15 days ago. With cheekpieces applied for the first time and a workable mark on handicap debut, he’s got solid claims for a yard that won this race in 2021 and 2022.

Goodwood Odyssey seemed to thrive on the return to softer ground when winning a Goodwood handicap 14 days ago. He’s been raised 5lb for that effort, so he’ll need to improve again to defy his new mark. However, he could be capable of doing so if there’s juice in the ground.

Kempton

There’s no need to worry about soft ground at Kempton, with the all-weather surface staying fairly consistent.

2:35 – Unibet September Stakes (Group 3) – 1m 4f

Hamish was below form at Newmarket 58 days ago, but before that, he was in excellent form, winning a Group 3 at Newbury and finishing runner-up in the Coronation Cup at Epsom. He’s only having his third start on the all-weather but did win this race in 2021. Even with a 3lb penalty, he’s the one to beat.

Lion’s Pride has strong form here at Kempton, winning a C&D Listed race last November. He gets 3lb from Hamish but needs to bounce back from a poor run at Goodwood last time. Returning to the all-weather could see him return to form, and he’s one to keep in mind.

Saturday’s ‘Lay or Play’ Qualifiers

There are four ‘lay or play’ qualifiers on Saturday and here they are.

As ever I’ll be back on Monday to recap what looks like an exciting weekend of racing.

Good luck with your Saturday bets.

John