Trainer’s Are Missing a Trick

Hi all,

Inside today’s main piece I’m looking back at Saturday’s action at Kempton and Newcastle.

Kempton

The weather for Saturday's Coral Trophy fixture at Kempton resembled that of spring. Despite recent heavy rainfall, track conditions had dried out too good to soft, contrary to the expected soft ground. It was puzzling to see numerous non-runners attributed to unsuitable ground conditions.

The Coral Trophy Handicap Chase, offering more prize money than the Ultima Handicap Chase at the Cheltenham Festival, featured only 12 runners despite its lucrative nature and live coverage on ITV. This disparity highlights the strong allure of the festival among racing connections, leading to a limited field for such a valuable race.

While many owners and trainers are drawn to the prestige of Cheltenham, overlooking other significant opportunities, trainer Anthony Honeyball demonstrated foresight by entering three runners in the Coral Trophy Handicap Chase. This decision reflected a strategic approach to capitalize on the winnable race and lucrative prize money, diverging from the common trend of prioritizing Cheltenham engagements.

It’s a Forward Plan for Honeyball

Al Dancer maintained a decent pace and was still in front at the final fence. Jumping the last it looked like a positive ride might have paid off on the 11-year-old. However, Forward Plan winged the last, that momentum propelled him forward on the run to win by a cosy 1 ¾ lengths. The runner-up's brave front running effort almost paid off but he had no answer to the winner's final thrust.

You can watch the race here and see Forward Plan come from out of the clouds to win.

This triumph was well-deserved, especially considering his narrow miss in the Great Yorkshire Handicap Chase at Doncaster in his previous outing, where he fell short by a mere nose.

Bowtogreatness, expected by the market to regain form, secured third place but lacked the finishing strength displayed by the winner. Last year's runner-up, Flegmatik, crept into the race on the inner to hold every chance two out but would have preferred a sounder surface.

Sam Brown, a stablemate of the the winner, finished strongly in fifth place. However, Blackjack Magic, the favoured stablemate, probably needed softer ground over 3m around here, and fell at the last.

I had tipped up Forward Plan on his previous run at Doncaster. However, I deserted him here on account of soft ground which wasn’t accurate. I could have given myself the hair dryer treatment for not seriously considering him this time, but it is what it is.

Kempton Star performer – Kalif Du Berlais

In addition to the big handicap chase, the undercard featured three Grade 2 contests, showcasing the talent of emerging horses. The two hurdle races particularly highlighted promising prospects for the future.

The Grade 2 Adonis Juvenile Hurdle saw odds-on favorite Kalif Du Berlais get the better of Givemefive after the last hurdle, Kalif Du Berlais displayed resilience and determination to secure victory by ¾ length.

Kalif Du Berlais's performance was commendable, especially considering he conceded 5lb to the runner-up. With his sights set on a future in fences, his potential is promising, particularly as he gains more experience and tackles longer distances. While he is entered in the Triumph Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival, his demanding race here suggests Aintree would be a more suitable option.

Kudos to trainer Paul Nicholls and connections they aren’t always dazzled by the brights of the Cheltenham Festival.

Blow Your Wad

Blow Your Wad showcased his potential with a good win in the in the Grade 2 Pendil Novices’ Chase, benefiting from both a flatter track and the application of cheekpieces for the first time. The 6-year-old maintained his unbeaten record at Kempton, making it 3-3.

Taking over from long-time leader Pembroke three fences out, Blow Your Wad demonstrated his quality. Despite facing a strong challenge from Tahmuras after the final fence, the determined winner held on bravely.

Tahmuras, although outpaced momentarily three fences from home, ran well and may require a longer distance than the 2m 4f.

Arclight, previously unbeaten in three starts over fences, faltered after a mistake at the first fence, impacting her confidence and leading to further errors before ultimately pulling up. A slight segues but trainer Nicky Henderson has seen six of his last seven runners pull up.

Blow Your Wad's running style suggests he may excel in big-field, well-run handicap chases in the future. However, his preference for flatter tracks seems evident, indicating that he may consistently perform at his peak under such conditions.

Lump Sum

Lump Sum, like Kalif Du Berlais, displayed immense promise in the Dovecote Novices’ Hurdle. The 6-year-old showcased his speed and stamina, ultimately outpacing his old rival Fiercely Proud to secure victory in the Grade 2 contest. The race setup, with a stronger pace and softer ground, played to Lump Sum's strengths, resulting in a convincing success.

This was Lump Sum's third hurdle triumph, affirming his potential as a talented prospect in the hurdling division.

Lump Sum is currently entered in both the County and Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdles at the festival. Given his preference for a strongly run two-mile race, the County Hurdle seems a more suitable target, although his ability to settle in races suggests he could excel over further as well.

Newcastle: Eider Chase

I left you with a question on Saturday regarding Saturday’s Eider Chase.

“Do you go with a thorough exposed stayer, or do you opt for horses that are going the right way and have the potential to better over a longer distance”? 

I opted for the latter option and went with Anglers Crag and Fenland Tiger. On Friday, I informed Victor Value subscribers,

“I believe Brian Ellison acquired Anglers Crag to win this race.”

While I didn't have any insider information, my intuition led me to this conclusion. For those who prefer a more analytical approach, the trends also favoured their chances. In my preview on Wednesday, I highlighted trends that had accurately predicted 12 of the last 13 winners of the Eider Chase. This year, only Anglers Crag and Fenland Tiger met these criteria.

Despite initially considering Angler’s Crag short at 7/2, earlier in the week, he offered value odds at 11/2 on race day. While the going was described as heavy, times suggested it was soft, potentially approaching good to soft due to a couple of dry days.

Anglers Crag displayed determination, rallying after a bad mistake at the second last fence to catch Prince Des Fichaux near the finish. He won despite that serious error and showed how well treated he was. Meanwhile, Fenland Tiger, still in contention four out, quickly folded and ultimately failed to stay the distance.

Southwell

Military Order returned to the winner's circle for the first time since his victory in Lingfield's Derby Trial last May, in the Group 3 Winter Derby at Southwell. His race fitness played to his advantage as he got first run on favourite, Lord North, winning by a length. Military Order's proven stamina proved crucial, particularly as the 1m 3f distance tested Lord North's stamina.

Despite this loss, Lord North remains on track for the Dubai Turf on World Cup Night, a race he has won three times, including the last two editions. Meanwhile, Military Order's victory raises hopes for a successful turf campaign this summer under the guidance of trainer Charlie Appleby. If he can continue to perform at this level, there are promising opportunities ahead for the 4-year-old.

Monday Preview

Twenty-one races and 146 runners. Ayr not one race with more than seven runners. It tells its own story. I took a cursory glance at the cards and I thought I would leave today’s action to the needy or greedy.

Good luck with your Monday bets.

John