Hi all,
Inside today's main piece you can read my thoughts on last Saturday's racing. Plus, there's a future winner from Newmarket.
Arc Weekend brought Group 1s coming out of your ears and it was a tricky one too, with changing ground and blustery winds. At Ascot on Saturday, there was a headwind down the straight, while at Newmarket, Sun Chariot Day ran with a strong tailwind behind them.
Ascot
Cajole bounced back to form in the Listed October Stakes. Always prominent towards the stands’ side, she dug deep to fend off the late surge of Dash Of Azure by a short head. The runner-up didn’t get the clearest of runs when trying to quicken and was a shade unlucky. A straight track clearly suits Cajole, and if she stays in training as a 4yo, there’ll be more races to be won with her when there’s a bit of cut in the ground.
Shagraan maintained his recent improved from when landing the Listed Rous Stakes by a neck from Beautiful Diamond. Improving 3yo Getreadytorumble handled the rise from handicaps well to finish a close third, just ahead of the ever-reliable Elegant Erin.
Al Qareem’s Relentless Treble
What a likeable horse Al Qareem is. He made it three successive wins in the Group 3 Cumberland Lodge Stakes – a remarkable hat-trick. Dropping back to 1m4f, he set strong fractions in front and refused to wilt when challenged. Hamish couldn’t pick him up and even lost second to stablemate Tenability late on. Few horses give punters a better run for their money than Al Qareem, and no doubt he’ll be back to try for four in a row next year.
Annaf Denies Desperately Unlucky Apollo One
Annaf got first run on the desperately unlucky Apollo One in the Group 3 Bengough Stakes. The 2023 winner just held last year’s hero by a short head, giving Mick Appleby an Ascot sprint double after Shagraan’s earlier win. How unlucky was Apollo One? Paul Mulrennan was travelling sweetly but just couldn’t get the gap when he needed it. Once in the clear, he surged home and was in front a stride after the line. Ouch. He was my staking challenge pick, and a win would have capped the day nicely for subscribers.
Native Warrior Dominant in the Challenge Cup
The Challenge Cup Handicap Saturday’s big betting handicap wrapped up the ITV Races, and Native Warrior made light work of an 8lb rise to give Karl Burke another big Saturday handicap winner after last week’s Cambridgeshire success. A bit lazy early but strong late, he asserted inside the final furlong for a comfortable success. The visor clearly continues to have the desired effect. His Ascot straight-course from figures now read 311. He could well return for the Balmoral Handicap (1m) on Champions Day, under a penalty.
Hickory, another Ascot straight course specialist, ran well in second and may renew rivalry in the Balmoral if he gets in the race. The same sentiment applies to Apiarist. Back to form, the 4yo was hampered 2f out and did well to rally and finish as close as he did.
The race trends suggested that Native Warrior who had raced here on his latest start couldn’t win. Horses who run at Ascot on their previous start were – 0 winners from 47 runners since 2008 and those that had won their last start were 0 winners from 39 runners. Trends are there to be busted and they were in Saturday’s race. However, that doesn’t detract from the utility of using them.
Newmarket
It was an excellent Saturday at Newmarket for trainer Oliver Cole, who recently took over the licence from his father, Paul. The trainer kicked off the day by winning the first two ITV races, taking the Class 2 fillies’ handicap (1m2f) with Princess Rascal and the £150,000 Tattersalls October Auction Stakes (7f) with Jel Pepper. The latter alone earned him over £96,000 in winners’ prize money. Not a bad day at the office for a trainer going solo.
Fallen Angel Soars at Newmarket
Fallen Angel defied market weakness to land the Group 1 Sun Chariot Stakes. She was front rank down the middle of the track and found plenty when challenged by Blue Bolt to run outa decisive winner. It was a fifth Group 1 victory for the 4yo and her third consecutive top-level success.
Given the strong tailwind it was not surprising that nothing could make inroads from further back with the first two home being up with the pace all the way. Fallen Angel despite having the best form was weak in the betting, possibly due to the drying ground, as support came in for Cinderella's Dream who never looked a danger to the winner and could only finish a well held third.
Lady Of Spain, who had beaten Blue Bolt at Sandown last time, could only manage fourth. The drying ground probably didn’t help her, and I don’t think she handled the track that well.
Fingers crossed, Fallen Angel will stay in training as a 5yo, with a trip to Ascot and a clash with the colts & geldings in the QEII Stakes on Champions Day likely next.
Redcar
Blustery conditions greeted the Yorkshire track for its most valuable race of the season, the Listed William Hill Two-Year-Old Trophy. With over £118,000 on offer to the winner, it was the improving gelding Ardisia who prevailed.
Ardisia nursery winner at Ayr, he led just inside the final furlong to hold off the well-backed Golden Brown, with the consistent Argentine Tango back in third. The runner-up looks to have plenty of potential for a 7f nursery win, while Isle Of Fernandez in fourth did best of the prominent racers, fading only late.
Short priced favourite Song Of The Clyde, who had finished well in front of the winner in valuable sales race at York’s Ebor Festival could only manage fifth. His trainer Clive Cox remains out of form, going 27 runners and 20 days without a winner.
Despite the big field it wasn’t the strongest renewal of the race, but the winner did well to get across from his wide draw (15) and was the best horse in the race.
Newmarket Eyecatcher
Miss Wong (David Simcock) caught the eye when finishing a neck second to Perfect Your Craft in the Class 2 Fillies’ Handicap (1m4f). It was a day that favoured prominent racers, yet she came from the rear and finished her race off strongly.
The three-year-old continues to progress and should stay further. She’s likely to remain well treated when reassessed and looks the type to pick up a good handicap or even a Listed race before long.
Softer ground also suits she handled it well when winning at Yarmouth two starts back so a return to testing ground won’t faze her either.
Tuesday Racing
The best of Tuesday’s racing is at Galway and Leicester. Galway hosts an interesting beginners' chase (4.20) which has been won in recent years by the likes of Noble Yeats, Perceval Legallois and The Other Mozzie.
At Leicester the highlight is a ten runner Class 3, 1m4f handicap (5:02). Of the ten I’ve focused on four – Warrant Holder, Hopewell Rock, Chillingham and Sovereign Sea.
Contenders
Looking at the RPR’s the best last time was Warrant Holder when finishing a ¾ length runner-up in a Newmarket novice 17 days ago. That was his first run since March, so he’s entitled to be sharper here and he’s open to improvement for the step up to 1m4f on handicap debut.
Hopewell Rock, another 3yo, ran well back on easier ground but couldn’t peg back the winner when a ½ -length 2nd of 10 at Doncaster last month. He’d have preferred a stronger pace last time and looks on a winnable mark.
Chillingham an experienced handicapper is more exposed than the above two 3-year-olds, but he shaped well last time when a 4 lengths 4th of 9 at Pontefract (1m2f) 12 days ago. Some ease in the ground and a return to 1m4f will suit the 6yo who’s on a winnable mark on a going day.
Sovereign Sea an all-weather winner is 0-3 on turf but he ran his best RPR last time when a ¾-length 2nd of 9 at Doncaster (1m2f) 24 days ago. He shapes and the dam’s pedigree suggests 1m4f should be within his stamina range.
I think the winner will come from one of the above four runners and here’s my race tissue for the main contenders:
Warrant Holder 3/1, Hopewell Rock 7/2, Chillingham 5/1 and Sovereign Sea 5/1
And here were the bookies best prices on Monday evening.
Warrant Holder 2/1, Hopewell Rock 9/4, Chillingham 13/2 and Sovereign Sea 8/1
Verdict:
As I expected the two 3yo’s were priced conservatively with the other two bigger than on my tissue. Both Chillingham and Sovereign Sea are potential overlays, but you must be wary of the improving Warrant Holder and Hopewell Rock.
Chillingham – £1.60 win – 13/2 – Bet365
Sovereign Sea – £1.60 win – 15/2 – Bet365
In Wednesday’s column I’ll be previewing Saturday’s Cesarewitch Handicap at Newmarket.
Good luck with your Tuesday bets.
John