Hi all,
Inside today’s main piece, I’m looking back at the best of Saturday’s action at Sandown and Haydock.
Sandown: City Of Troy Makes Hard Work of Eclipse Success
Although the going was officially described as soft at Sandown on times it was closer to good to soft.
Derby winner City Of Troy was expected to dominate the Group 1 Coral-Eclipse, but things didn’t go as planned. City Of Troy’s stablemate, Hans Anderson, set a good pace with City Of Troy well-positioned. However, the 1/4 favourite was being pushed along 2f out. Taking it up 1f out, he hung right inside the final furlong and, instead of pulling clear, had to dig into hold off Al Riffa and Ghostwriter.
We can likely attribute this laboured performance to the ‘softish’ ground. His action suggests he’s not suited to it, so he probably won’t race on that kind of ground again. Additionally, City Of Troy might need more than 1m 2f to be at his best, as he was strongest at the finish line.
With a 1m 2f Group 1 win in the bag, Coolmore achieved their goal. Jockey Ryan Moore took the blame, protecting the horse's reputation and bloodstock value. Funnily enough I thought Ryan gave City Of Troy a good ride given the horse lacked any sort of sparkle albeit he was well on top at the finish.
The ‘Lad’s really believe City Of Troy is capable of a superstar performance and If he’s to do it will be on quick ground.
Al Riffa was ridden to finish second, he came with a promising run but was always being held by the winner. If he had been ridden to win, he might have beaten a below-par City Of Troy. Ghostwriter ran well to finish a 2 length third and he would have preferred quicker ground, and he could be International Stakes bound.
What Next?
The debate on how good City Of Troy is will continue after Saturday’s performance, which is good for the sport as it will encourage more competition against him in future races.
We’ll never get the chance to find out whether he’s better than stablemate Auguste Rodin. At present I don’t think he is but the potential remains.
Will it be York’s International Stakes next or the dirt and the Travers Stakes? Fingers crossed its York. If it is York and we get quick ground, then I’ll be there because we could witness something special.
Haydock: Lancashire Oaks Queen
Queen Of The Pride, winner of the Group 3 Pinnacle Stakes over C&D on her previous start, confirmed her form with Lady Boba to win the Lancashire Oaks. Giving the Gosden yard a 10th success in the race.
The further they went, the stronger Queen Of The Pride looked, suggesting she should stay further than 1m 4f. The Park Hill Stakes at Doncaster’s St Leger meeting seems a good fit for her. Connections might also target Group 1 races for her, with next month’s Yorkshire Oaks being a likely option.
Tiffany, the 85/40 favourite, slipped coming into the bend and did well to finish a 3-length second. Without that incident, she might have finished closer.
Lady Boba ran her race, finishing third. Queen Of The Pride had beaten her by a short head last time and had race fitness on her side, but there was 3 ½ lengths between them this time. Lady Boba just isn’t as progressive as the winner.
Getting The Watering Can Out
I won't drone on too much about the watering of racecourses again. Sandown watered in the run-up to the Coral-Eclipse meeting and, unfortunately, received more rain than expected, turning the ground towards the soft side of good for Eclipse Day. This extra rain led to a host of non-runners, including two in the big Group 1 contest. I appreciate that Sandown’s turn into the straight can be tricky if you get showers on quick ground, which means it has the potential to be dangerous for both horse and jockey. If that’s why Andrew Cooper watered, then I understand his reasoning. Unfortunately, the forecasted light showers turned out to be more substantial, which was bad news for Cooper.
They also had problems with horses slipping on the bend at Haydock. It was at worst good to firm for Friday’s Haydock card, and I was expecting more rain on Friday night, but that didn’t really materialize. So, we had light rain falling on quick ground, so it didn’t totally surprise me that they had problems with the bend.
It wasn’t totally surprising that Haydock ended up abandoning the rest of the races on the round course, including the Old Newton Cup. Disappointing for racegoers, but it was the right decision on welfare grounds. For selfish reasons, I was pleased because both my bets in the Old Newton Cup didn’t have their ground.
There will need to be an investigation of events at Haydock. I wonder if they have an infestation of Cockchafer grubs. Read more about chafer grubs.
Best and Worst Betting Conditions
I find I’m at my best when the ground is either good to firm or soft/heavy, and it's at its worst on good to soft. I think I know the reason why the latter occurs. There are different sorts of good to soft going; they are very different, and certain Clerks of the Course can’t work them out. Maybe I shouldn’t bet when it’s good to soft. It’s something worth considering although a rather boring approach.
For me, it’s no coincidence that I had a successful Royal Ascot with quick ground and settled weather—a perfect combination. Given last week’s weather and uncertain going, Saturday turned out to be the complete opposite. I got things wrong and talked myself out of a couple of winners, although Queen Of The Pride’s win in the Lancashire Oaks meant I made a small profit. Disappointing, but I won’t be beating myself up about it as these things happen. Thankfully, my General Election bets enabled me to have a profitable week.
I decided to go back to variable staking as opposed to level staking prior to Royal Ascot, and it paid dividends on Saturday. Yes, it’s a conservative approach, and if 12/1 selections go in, then the level stakes approach gains bigger profits. However, if the shorter-priced selections go in, then the reverse occurs. Instead of just breaking even on Saturday, I made a small profit from just one winner.
This Week
I'm heading to France for five days, so I'll miss the first two days of Newmarket's July Festival. Honestly, I'm not too upset about it since the July Course at Newmarket isn't my favourite, and I much prefer the summer festivals at Goodwood and York.
However, I'll be back in time for ‘Super Saturday,' although I’m not sure if I will be able to do Saturday’s column. If I don’t, I’ll be back next Monday with my look back at Saturday’s action.
I have posted up an 8/1 ante post bet for Friday at Newmarket for Victor Value subscribers. The horse in question won’t be that price come Friday if he runs. If you want that tip and my selections for the rest of the month you can get them here.
Monday Racing
I hope you backed Al Riffa without the favourite in Saturday’s Coral-Eclipse as advised in Saturday’s column.
Ayr
2:55 – Winter Crown is knocking on the door having finished runner-up on his last two starts, he’s versatile going wise and shouldn’t be far away. At the prices there’s value to be had with The Caltonian who bounced back to form when a length 2nd of 10 to one of today’s rivals Be Proud. He gets 3lb from the winner here which entitles him to get closer to that one and given a sound surface he should go close.
The Caltonian – 5/1.
Have a great week and good luck with your bets.
John
Have you stopped posting??? Nothing now for 5 days???