Saturday Selections

Good morning all,

An early start for me, as I'll be at Ascot, so posting today's selections nice and early.

Rain is due at Ascot, and Wetherby might get a drop more as well, so expect soft conditions.

I'll start doing some video reviews/previews from next week, as I know it's been a while since I did any, and it would be good to get back in the swing in readiness for Cheltenham in a couple of weeks time.

And thanks for all the nice comments about the Carlisle piece yesterday, they're all very welcome.

2.30 Wetherby – Bet365 Hurdle (3m)

I started out looking at this thinking I wanted to take Paisley Park on, but by the time I’d finished I thought the 9-4 on offer with a few firms was perfectly reasonable, and even worth a small investment.

Whilst he may be not be as consistent as he once was, if you forgive his poor Aintree run – easy enough to do, in my book – he still has the best form in the race, will handle the ground (likely to be soft), and with doubts over the trip for one or two of his man rivals, he does look like the one to beat.

Master Tommytucker reverts to hurdles, possibly not the biggest surprise given his chequered career over fences to date, but whether he wants 3m is another thing. I haven’t seen anything that says he does, and is probably going to be reaching for the oxygen late. Thomas Darby, in receipt of 6lb from Paisley Park, looks the danger but they never seemed to know what to do or where to go with him last year, with cheekpieces tried at one stage before being swiftly removed, and I still have one or two reservations about him.

3.05 Wetherby – Charlie Hall Chase (3m)

Whereas you’ve only got to forgive Paisley Park the one bad effort, you’ve got two to handle with Cyrname and I’m not sure I can forgive those, not at 6-5 anyway.

Maybe this is the time to catch him, first time up after a wind operation, but equally that might be yer lot from Cyrname after some hard races, and I wouldn’t be going near him here. If he wins, he wins, but it’s not like there aren’t alternatives.

Shan Blue is an easy one to start with. Flat track, three miles with some cut, it all looks ideal and you can bet your last quid he’ll be fully fit for this, as it looks a natural early-season target for him. Two wins around Wetherby have seen him cruise to an aggregate win total of 30l, and he wasn’t beating slowboats either. Has to be top of the list, for me, and I can see Harry taking this by the scruff of the neck from halfway, trying to expose any chinks in Cyrname’s armour.

I continually get Kitty’s Light wrong, but surely slow ground would count against him here. The trip looks a worry for Fusil Raffles, but he has the class if he does stay. Mighty Thunder looks a bit outclassed and surely has other targets later in the year, Clondaw Castle gets 3m but on soft ground I’d have my concerns, but you could make some sort of a case for Top Ville Ben. He was well beaten in this a couple of years ago, but improved after that, and his Rowland Meyrick win under top weight was some performance. Chances are that’s what his main target this year will be, but he’ll enjoy conditions and might be worth a small saver.

2.10 Ascot

What will the ground be by the time the afternoon racing comes around? Forecasts don’t look great, with 15-20mm predicted in the morning, so we’re looking at soft ground here, I think.

That would rule a few out, and I’d be loathe to take 7-2 about Boothill after the best part of a year off, despite the fact he could be different class, so instead I’ll try two small darts with Miss Heritage, and Megan.

Lucy Wadham improved Miss Heritage last year, so much so that she was the only one to get near the well-treated Langer Dan in the Imperial Cup last year, finishing a 4½l second. Given the winner only found one too good at Cheltenham the week after in the Martin Pipe, to only be 1lb higher here still makes her look reasonably treated. Her poor run on good ground at Ayr at the end of the year is easy to forgive, and the more rain that falls the better her chance. Ajero is half the price she is, yet the two are handicapped to finish together on their Rasen form of last February. She needed a run or two to put her right last season but has won fresh in the past, and I see no reason why, if she’s fit and ready to go, why she won’t go close.

Megan is more speculative, but she gives the impression a strong-run race (which looks very likely) would suit her, as she can take a hold, and she had yet to be asked for any effort when still travelling well at Chepstow on her reappearance. Essentially she’s unexposed, won’t mind conditions and as we all know, Stuart Edmunds is the finest trainer in the land today. (I think so, anyway.)

2.45 Ascot – 2m1f Handicap Chase

This is one of those contests that could be settled early, with so many of them wanting a share of the front. Whoever can jump best and get into a rhythm is going to be the one to beat, you feel.

Sully D’Oc won the Ascot Underwriting over slightly further here last year, and continued to improve throughout the season but he’s been hoiked up another 10lb after his Punchestown win, meaning he starts this year off 22lb higher than last year. It might be he’s got more to come, but if it got really testing, that would have to be a worry.

Amoola Gold won this last year under Bridget Andrews and conditions won’t be an issue but again, he too starts off from a much higher mark. Perhaps early in the season is the time to catch him, but he makes limited appeal.

Editeur Du Gite is obvious enough, having some good efforts at Ascot to his name, and this sort of trip seems to suit him better than further. He also faces competition for the lead, so Jamie Moore will need to be on his mettle at the start.

Frero Banbou is a hard one to weigh up. He looked a worldbeater when scoring on the bridle at Sandown back in March, but then disappointed (although wasn’t disgraced) behind Editeur Du Gite at Aintree. Maybe that run came a bit quick, with the Sandown win coming off the back of a three month break. We know Venetia can ready her chasers after an absence and you get the feeling she’s about to step it up a gear this season. I wouldn’t bother backing him each-way, given his patchy profile, but as a win-only bet at 6s and bigger, he makes plenty of appeal.

3.20 Ascot – 3m Handicap Chase

I’m one of Vinndication’s biggest fans going, and yes, he’s got his ideal conditions here today – much the same as when winning this back in 2019 – but Kim Bailey has had just two winners in the last couple of weeks, and both of those were very short. He didn’t shine when reverted to hurdles last year, and with all that, I’m happy to take him on at 3-1.

I thought about giving Soujourn a go, as his record fresh is very good, and he’ll not care how testing it gets. This mark looks high enough, though, and for all he could go well, I’m looking elsewhere for the winner.

Didero Vallis, in retrospect, did well to run Kitty’s Light to a neck at Kelso on his final start of last season, given the exploits of the winner since. Unusually, though, for a Venetia inmate, he seems to take a run or two to grease the gears, which is slightly offputting here. As his is Ascot form to date, so one for another day.

At 13, surely age is catching up with Ascot specialist Regal Encore, so I’m taking a win-only bet on Jerrsyback, who has disappointed too many times to be a good thing but his best run last season came on his seasonal debut when an eyecatching third to Dashel Drasher here, and is 4lb lower today. All-or-nothing stuff, but at double figures, worth a pop.

Today's selection – Miss Heritage (e/w) 2.10 Ascot

Good luck with all your bets,

David.