Hi all,
Inside today’s main piece I have a selection from this afternoon’s meeting at Ludlow.
Saturday’s ITV Racing Under Threat
The Met Office issued a yellow weather warning for rain in the south of England on Thursday. That means both Sandown and Wincanton must survive precautionary inspections.
Sandown, which is soft, heavy in places on the chase course and heavy on the hurdles course could get 27mm of the wet stuff on Thursday. That means the track will be inspected on Friday morning to see if racing can go ahead. Friday and Saturday are set to be dry but if the volume of rain has arrived it’s hard to see them being able to race. Even if less rain arrives its going to be heavy all over.
Wincanton, which was due to provide ITV with three races on Saturday, will leave its inspection until Saturday morning. The track was described as heavy, soft in places on Thursday afternoon and as much as 21mm of rain was being forecast. As is the case with Sandown, it's set to be dry on Friday and Saturday but the damage could have been done on Thursday.
I’m off to Whitby on Saturday, so I won’t be watching the racing live. However, fingers crossed both tracks can race, and ITV viewers get to see some decent action. However, it’s not looking good if the weather forecast is right.
Some Things Never Change in Horse Race Betting
There are some things in horse race betting that don’t change. Thirty-five years ago, just over a third of all horses races were won by the favourite.
Does that still hold true?
Looking at www.horseracebase.com:
Since the start of 2021 favourites won 34.94% of all horse race run in Britain & Ireland. So, a third of all horses races are still won by the favourite some 35 years later.
Top Six in the Betting
When I first started betting in the mid 1980’s I was told by wiser heads then myself that biggest pool to fish in if you wanted to find winners and profits was among the top six in the betting.
I wanted to find out if that was another truism that had held over time.
Now it would be pointless to look at races with say 8 runners because the top six in the betting are going to win the most races. Much better to look at races with 13 or more runners.
Even in races with 13+ runners the top six in the betting accounted for 79% of winners.
Delving a bit deeper and breaking down by handicap and non-handicap races.
In non-handicap just under 89% of races were won by the top six in the betting and handicap races just over 74%.
As a comparison here are the figures for horses outside the top six in betting.
The test of time shows that if you’re fishing for winners outside the top six in the betting you’re fishing in a very small pool.
All sounds good, just focus on the top six betting, right?
There is of course a glaring problem. We don’t know who will be returned in the top six. You could of course use the Racing Post Betting Forecast and use the top six there. However, as useful a guide as the Racing Post forecast can be, it’s not as accurate as the live betting market.
In summary:
Those old timers were right. Far and away the most winners are to be found in the first six in the betting even in races of 13 runners or more. However, you don’t know with any certainty who will be in the first six in the betting and even if you did you would still need to identify the winner from the remaining qualifiers. Who said this game is easy?
Friday Preview
There are jump cards at Ludlow and Musselburgh and all-weather cards at Southwell and Wolverhampton.
Ludlow
I didn’t pick the Simply Delicious Cakes Novices' Handicap Chase (1:00) because it’s the most valuable race of the day. No, I chose it because it’s an interesting contest and, on a poor day of racing, it looked one of the few races worthy of further study. All six runners have some sort of chance, and all are capable of being better than their marks.
Contenders:
Missed Tee was the early bird favourite. She did too much too soon when a 4 ½ length 4th of 5 at Wetherby (1m 7f) 37 days ago. The first-time hood is applied which makes sense given she steps up to 2m 4f.
I’m surprised the bookies haven’t made Malaita favourite. There’s plenty of encouragement to be gleaned from her three starts over fences. She had jumped well out in front and had still to be asked a question when falling three out in a mares’ handicap chase won by La Malmason at Cheltenham last month.
Four-time winning hurdler Ballybegg is a maiden after four starts over fences. He put in his best effort over the larger obstacles when a 16 ¾ length 4th of 10 at Chepstow last time.
Hall Lane shaped with promise on chase debut when a 9 ½ lengths 2nd of 6 to the useful The Same in novice handicap chase at Market Rasen 43 days ago. He’s got the potential to do better over fences.
Midnight Centurian also shaped with promise on his chase debut last November when finishing a 2 ¾ length 2nd of 6 in a novice handicap chase at Catterick. This is his first start for 413 days. However, he was ready to roll on his seasonal return last season so should be fit enough if good enough. He won over hurdles here in March 2022 so the track should pose any terrors for him.
Verdict:
I must confess my record in these sorts of race is dire, so any selection carries a wealth warning. For me early bird favourite Midnight Tee is worth taking on. Indeed, I’m surprised that Malaita isn’t the market leader. If her confidence hasn’t been affected by last month’s fall, she’s the most likely winner. Both Hall Lane and Midnight Centurian are capable of better over fences. Hall Lane’s trainer Alan King is 5 winners from 12 runners 42% +4.3, 7 placed 58% with his handicap chasers at Ludlow in the past 5 years. He’ll be a pick for those who like their trainer stats. As appealing as Hall Lane’s claims are I’m just favouring the returning, Midnight Centurian.
Friday Selection:
Ludlow
1:00 – Midnight Centurian.
Good Luck with your Friday bets.
John