Hi all,
In today's main feature, I delve into the upcoming Saturday race action and provide an early analysis of next week’s highly anticipated King George VI Chase.
Sam’s Upset’s the Applecart
Sam Hoskins’ article lays bare the structural decay infesting our beloved sport. The horse population dwindles, and the breeding industry gasps for breath despite a few recent eyewatering purchases. He talks about the lack of transparency from racecourses in regard to media rights.
The culprit? A sport led astray, hand in hand by racecourses and bookmakers.
Our sport's current model, drowning in races with prize money insufficient to pay even a medium-sized house's energy bills, serves bookmakers at the expense of passionate fans. Those very fans turned away by the questionable practices of these bookmaking overlords. Affordability checks threaten their exploitative model, yet the sport's shaky association with them jeopardizes its own future.
Horse Racing's pivotal question remains:
“Is it merely a gambling product or a participant sport?”
My stance is clear, and the only lifeline for our sport lies in taking control of betting, as successfully done in Japan and Hong Kong. Yes, pro-punters would be a casualty, but at least the sport would wrestle free from life support. Alas, the powers that be will find such a radical solution too daunting.
Our sport, akin to an ostrich, buries its head when confronted with tough decisions. But inaction is not an option now.
Punters, seemingly treated like an inconvenience by the BHA and the bookmakers, hold the mightiest weapon – our collective refusal to bet for a week! It’s radical and won’t happen of course but it's the only way to make them hear our voice.
Rise, fellow punters, for the survival of our sport depends on our united stand.
Allaho Leads King George VI Chase Betting
Last Thursday, I touted Allaho as a value pick at 7/2 for the King George VI Chase at Kempton. However, the recent news suggesting Geri Colombe’s possible non-participation has propelled Allaho to the head of the ante post betting at 7/4 favourite. Contemplating his decreasing odds, I may consider laying him off on exchanges for a modest profit.
Nicholls Bullish on Bravemansgame
Paul Nicholls expresses confidence in last year's champion, Bravemansgame, heightens expectations of a big performance.
Shishkin Seeks Redemption
Shishkin who will be aiming for redemption after a reluctance to race at Ascot last month, possesses the class to clinch victory. He’s becoming an attractive price. However, the question remains – can he be trusted?
Gerri Colombe: Will He, Won’t He?
There’s even the intriguing possibility that Geri Colombe could come over. Earlier in the week he looked like he would be a non-runner now maybe he will show up. I think soft ground might tempt connections.
The Real Whacker's Challenge
The Real Whacker has been subject to good reports by trainer Patrick Neville. Last season’s top novice chaser faces the challenge of keeping up with the early pace set by Allaho.
Hewick’s Frame Claims
Hewick, seems a likely runner and on good ground the 8-year-old get could get into the money.
Royale Pagaille's Prospects
Royale Pagaille, inheritor of second place in last year's race, would benefit from the leaders going off to hard. However, he surely needs soft ground to take advantage of such a situation.
Verdict: If Allaho gets into a good rhythm, his adept jumping skills will apply early pressure to rivals. The ultimate test lies in whether he can sustain the pace for 3 miles after his injury. Success hinges on this crucial factor. If Shishkin is on a going day, then he looks the biggest threat to Allaho. My expectation was that Gerri Colombe would be making a festive appearance at Leopardstown but there’s a chance he could come over after all. If he does it will be a small but quality field.
Looking Ahead to the Weekend – Part 1
A pre-Christmas treat awaits with two days of racing kicking off at Ascot on Friday. The highlight of Friday's card is the Grade 2 Howden Noel Novices' Chase at 3:05.
Saturday's highlights include the Grade 1 Long Walk Hurdle at 2:25, along with two valuable handicaps. The first is the Howden Silver Cup Handicap Chase at 3:00, followed by the Betfair Exchange Trophy at 3:35, which has £85,425 on offer to the winner.
ITV Racing will cover four races from Ascot and two from Haydock, where the Tommy Whittle Handicap Chase (1:30) takes the spotlight.
Last year, we lost Ascot and Haydock's cards to the weather, but this time around, weather conditions appear more favourable. About 6mm of rain was forecast for Ascot on Tuesday, with the period until Saturday expected to be mostly dry. If the forecast holds, the ground, currently labelled good to soft, good in places, could shift to good by Saturday. More rain is being forecast for Haydock for the rest of the week so it looks like the presently soft ground will remain by the time of racing.
Ascot – Saturday
In Saturday’s Grade 1 Howden Long Walk Hurdle 2020 & 2022 winner Paisley Park takes on 2021 winner Champ. Paisley Parkwas beaten a head by Dashel Drasher at Newbury on his seasonal return and looks to have a good chance of reversing places on 6lb better terms. Champ finished third to Paisley Park, but his form line is 1211211 on seasonal return. Paisley Park, Champ and Dashel Drasher face a couple of strong rivals in the improving Crambo and West Balboa.
Blackjack Magic Tops Howden Silver Cup Chase Contenders
In the Howden Silver Cup Handicap Chase Blackjack Magic heads, the ante post betting. He improved to win the Badger Beer Handicap Chase at Wincanton on his seasonal return. He’s a worthy favourite but probably would want the ground to dry out too much more.
Victtorino won a C&D handicap chase last month and has strong claims of following up. Yeah Man was coming with a big run in the same race when falling at the last in the same race. He would have finished second that day and must be respected. Flegmatik looked booked for third when unseasting his rider at the last. He’s since finished runner-up here over 2m 5f and is in the mix on good to soft ground at worst.
Git Maker steps up in class here but he made a winning seasonal return at Lingfield last month and is going the right way. He also holds an entry in the Tommy Whittle Chase at Haydock and that may prove a better option.
Angel’s Breath found things happening too quickly when 7th of 14 to Stage Star in the Paddy Power Gold Cup (2m 4f). He’s a fragile horse which means, even though he’s approaching veteran status, he’s only had 10 starts. All three of his career wins have come here albeit over shorter. If he stays 3m he’s handicapped to go close.
In Thursday's column I will be looking at Ascot’s Betfair Exchange Trophy Handicap Hurdle.
Wednesday Preview
It’s a busy day’s sport. Ayr, Ludlow, and Newbury stage jump fixtures and there’s an all-weather card at Lingfield this afternoon. The action concludes this evening with cards at Kempton and Dundalk.
Newbury
The Newbury card is interesting with some interesting novice races. I like the claims of Theatre Man in the JM Finn Novices' Limited Handicap Chase (1:25). There was plenty like about his 4 ¾ length 2nd of 11 to Inch House over C&D last month. That was the 7-year-old’s first start over fences and he’s capable of further improvement. Mind you he faces two horses who are also open to further progress over the larger obstacles in Amrons Sage and Brave Kingdom.
In the Hooorrrrraaayyy It's Christmas Queen s Arms Handicap Chase (3:10) Theatre Man’s stablemate Wewillgowithplanb likely to be seen to better effect back over fences on seasonal return. Etalon a winner over hurdles, looks the type to do better over fences and is respected on chase debut. Martator ran well for a long way when a 9-length 3rd of 5 to Brave Kingdom at Plumpton (2m 3 ½ f) 30 days ago. The cheekpieces are reapplied and the drop back to an extended 2m makes him of interest for the still inform Venetia Williams yard who are 10-39 with their chasers here in the last 5-years.
Ludlow
12:40 – Bobhopeornohope made all to win this race 12 months ago and is off the same mark here. Disappointing on seasonal return at Warwick but he’s a better horse going right-handed. Latitude shaped like he needed his seasonal reappearance at Cheltenham last month. He’s 2-2 here including C&D. I think he can win more races this season, but better ground might be preferable. Jimmy The Digger caught the eye before unseating his rider at Aintree on seasonal return. However, he was disappointing in a veterans’ chase at Warwick 28 days ago. He’s better than he was able to show last time and is on a competitive mark on a track he’s run well at in the past.
Kempton
7:30 – Coachello is sure to be popular bidding for the hat trick after winning at Lingfield and Newcastle. The latest of those wins came 4 days ago and even with a 5lb penalty he should go close. Baldomero is a consistent handicapper, but he finds winning hard and is on a losing run of 22. Hopes are pinned on the first visor and prominent ride in race that doesn’t contain much pace giving him the winning edge.
Wednesday Selection:
Kempton
7:30 – Baldomero – 4/1.
Good luck with your Wednesday bets.
John
So, Denise Coates becomes the youngest UK female billionaire!
It’s just a shame that the racing elite with more money than God, can’t turn racing on it’s head and put it back where it should be.
I doubt that she even knows which race meetings are taking place today.
You have a well earned Merry Christmas Denise and a Happy and Prosperous….err, well, maybe not that bit.
Hi John you’ve only have to look at the dog game that’s finished or would be without bookmakers give it 5rs and racing will be the same you can see it happening