Hi all,
I finished my Friday tasks early, so I managed to put together a short Saturday column.
There’s good racing, but solid betting opportunities in the ITV races are scarce. I have plenty of fancies, but many aren’t value bets at current odds.
Not many tipsters would take a swing at a race in Saudi Arabia, but I am. You’ll find my selection inside.
Kempton
I covered the four ITV races in Thursday’s column, so I won’t repeat myself. Here are some updates:
Pendil Novices’ Chase (1:50) – If the rain arrives, I am against favourite Rubaud. I backed Ashdale Bob, though I missed the 8/1.
Adonis Hurdle (2:25) – Mondo Man, second to Lulamba on hurdles debut, is now odds-on for this Grade 2 and should win.
Dovecote Hurdle (3:00) – Miami Magic is the form pick. Tripoli Flyer has solid claims based on second favourites’ record in the race, but at 3/1 I can let him win
The Ladbrokes Trophy Handicap Chase (3:35) is wide open, and ground conditions will be key.
In Thursday’s column, I outlined trends that found the last ten winners. Here are this year’s trends qualifiers:
Hyland & Lowry’s Bar – Fit the trends. However, Hyland wants a sound surface so I’m happy to take him on
Our Power – Won this in 2023, he’s not on the trends list, but I couldn’t let him go unbacked.
Beachcomber – A last time out C&D winner, looks well suited to right-handed, flat track and could have been kept fresh for this.
Other Notable Races:
I found last year’s Eider Chase (2:10) winner and thought I’d be with Anglers Crag again. But this year’s race looks much deeper.
For Victor Value subscribers, I’ve put up two selections – Choosethenews and Lord Roco. Neither are guaranteed stayers, but both are competitively weighted if their stamina holds up.
Bobbyjo Chase (3:25, Fairyhouse) – I Am Maximus was tempting at 4/1 but is now 9/4. I think he wins, but not at that price.
Handicap Chase (3:07, Chepstow) – Prince Quail won this last year and followed up over C&D in April. He gets his ground, and the trainer/jockey combo had a winner at Exeter. 9/2 looks fair.
Saturday's Best Value Bet – Saudi Arabia
My best value bet is Byline in the Group 2 Turf Sprint (4:10, Riyadh).
He finished third to Annaf last year but didn’t get a clear run. He would have gone close with a smoother trip. He’s vulnerable to improvers but has strong each-way claims. The owner/trainer won this in 2020, and Tom Marquand is booked.
I got 25/1, but 20/1 is still worth taking.
I’m hoping Byline can be my Saudi surprise.
Good luck with your Saturday bets.
John