Hi all,
York’s Ebor Festival is done and dusted for another year and there’s plenty to dissect. Today’s focus is on Saturday’s Ebor Day, with a look back at the first three days to follow tomorrow.
York Ebor Festival – Saturday Recap
With a new Group 1 on the card alongside the Sky Bet Ebor, the festival closed on a high.
Strensall Stakes: Sheikh Obaid’s 1–2, but Skukuza Looked Unlucky
Sheikh Mohammed Obaid had the 1–2 here as King Of Cities held off Boiling Point. The winner looked set to score comfortably when taking it up over a furlong out, but he was all out at the line. The return to a flatter track suited. Skukuza shaped better than the bare result after racing too keen and being forced to switch for a clear run. With a better passage he might have won.
Melrose Handicap: Tarriance Proves Tough as Nails
Not the strongest renewal of the 3yo old Ebor on paper, but it produced a thrilling finish. Tarriance battled tenaciously to nose out favourite Many Men. He’s now improved with every start, looks a genuine grinder, and could develop into a Cup horse as a 4yo. The runner-up lost nothing in defeat – he drifted right in the closing stages and that probably cost him victory given he was only beaten a nose.
Sky Bet City of York Stakes: City of York Stakes: Never So Brave the Star of the Day
Easily the race of the week. Never So Brave, who began the season running in handicaps, completed a Group-race hat-trick and showed he’s top-class. The drop back to 7f was no issue, though he looks more of a miler. Connections can now eye the QEII on Champions Day, provided the ground isn’t soft. His gelding operation has done the trick, and he could prove even better as a 5yo.
Lake Forest was flying late after being forced to switch for a run and failed by half a length. That switch cost him ground at a vital stage which might have been the difference between victory and defeat. That said he doesn’t travel well through his races and will always come up short against the better travellers like the winner.
Maranoa Charlie couldn’t adopt his usual front running tactics with Quinault in the line-up but ran a cracker in third.
Rosallion sent off the even money favourite, couldn’t capitalise on what looked a good opportunity to land his first Group 1 this season finishing a length back in 4th. He has excuses from his wide draw and was trapped out wide by Exactly but isn’t getting the job done. A gelding operation has transformed Never So Brave; you can’t help thinking the same might apply to Rosallion. Not that it's going to happen.
Sky Bet Ebor: Mullins Strikes Again with Ethical Diamond
The pre-race market told the story: Hipop De Loire weak, stablemate Ethical Diamond strong. The Mullins yard knew.
William Buick gave the winner a good ride, and once a gap opened on the stands’ side, he had the pace to take and win decisively. He won’t head to Australia for the Melbourne Cup which would be an ideal race for him, but he’s up to Group 3 class at least on the shores
Ascending 3lb higher than when winning the Ascot Stakes (2m 4f) at Royal Ascot had no issues with the drop back to 1m 6f. He took it up 3f out but had no answers to the winner’s acceleration in the closing stages. He must have a good chance in the Irish Cesarewitch back up to 2m 1f.
Ascending was second best on the day but why did his jockey not grab the stands rail and not allow the winner a clear run. Given how authoritative Ethical Diamond was he probably would still have won but don’t make it easy for him.
Queenstown ran much better in the race than he had done 12 months earlier in finishing third to give the Irish a 1-2-3. Ryan Moore was right to choose him over London City who never got involved from the rear.
Stressfree proved he stayed 1m 6f in fourth.
Hipop De Loire didn’t run too badly in 6th but lacks the pace to win a race like this over 1m 6f. He needs further and could also be seen to better effect in the Irish Cesarewitch.
Majestic Warrior travelled well as anything but didn’t find much off the bridle and probably didn’t stay. Shadow Dance also found his stamina running out, but he would also have preferred more juice underfoot.
Sky Bet Ebor Verdict:
Another top staying prize heads to Ireland, courtesy of Willie Mullins. For next year’s Sky Bet Ebor: stick to Irish-trained horses, 6yo or younger and with a high draw.
Constantine Handicap: Improving Northern Ticker Stakes Ayr Gold Cup Claims
The Sky Bet Constantine Handicap went to the 3yo Northern Ticker, who edged stablemate Commanche Falls, with Pocklington third. I was on the last two but swerved the winner, wrongly thinking he needed softer ground. He’ll be a big player in the Ayr Gold Cup especially with some ease in the ground. Commanche Falls produced his best run of the season, while Pocklington again shaped like a winner-in-waiting, shaping like he needs a stiffer 6f than York. He’s another who could head to Ayr.
Roses Stakes: Revival Power Shows Winter Power Speed
The Listed Roses Stakes went to the speedy Revival Power, who showed the same tenacity as her sister Winter Power who won the Nunthorpe Stakes as 3-year-old. A flat, fast 5f suits her perfectly, and connections will surely be aiming her at next year’s Nunthorpe.
Monday Racing
Ripon takes centre stage on Bank Holiday Monday with the Listed Champion Two Yrs Old Trophy topping the card. There’s plenty of action nationwide, and with the sun set to shine, decent crowds should hopefully follow.
I’ve got two at Ripon on my radar — Our Absent Friends in the 5f handicap (4:23) and Capital Guarantee in the Ripon Rowels Handicap (3:50).
Our Absent Friends has C&D figures of 221, so that’s one tick. He hasn’t won this year but he’s 8lb below his last winning mark and looks well treated. The concern is quick ground — 0-13 on good or faster, though six placed efforts show he runs his race. Knicks flopped at Haydock last time when beaten favourite (11/2) but had gone close at Chester before that. If you forgive the Haydock run, he’s a player. Mind you he's another with a low draw in stall 3.
Capital Guarantee has no such ground worries. He won over C&D just nine days ago, finding a gap late before staying on well. A 2lb rise is fair, and all six of his career wins have come on good or firmer. He’s also two from three at a mile. Trainer David O’Meara knows how to win this race, having taken it three times since 2016. Isla Kai returns from a 702 day lay off and is 1lb higher than when winning this race in 2023. He’s 1lb higher and 2-2 over C&D but it’s hard to know how much of his old ability the top weight retains after such a long layoff. I would prefer a lower draw than stall 7 but it’s Capital Guarantee for me for the inform David O’Meara yard.
Building a Staking Plan from a £100 Bank
When you’re betting every day, discipline matters as much as finding the right horses. A simple staking plan can keep your betting bank safe while giving it room to grow.
With a starting bank of £100, the safest way is to work in small percentages. I recommend staking 2% of your bank per bet. That means your opening stake is £2. With one bet per day, your maximum daily exposure is limited to a single stake, which helps protect the bank from losing runs.
The beauty of percentage staking is that it moves with your results. If your bank grows, so does your stake. If it drops, your risk reduces automatically. To make it simple, only adjust when your bank moves by 20%.
- At £120, raise your stake to £2.40.
- At £140, raise again to £2.80.
- If the bank falls to £80, cut back to £1.60.
- At £60, reduce further to £1.20.
This method compounds profits steadily but also shields you when results go against you. Over a 30-day period, your stake starts at £2 and stays there until your balance hits one of those thresholds. If you’re winning, the increase feels natural. If you’re losing, the lower stake keeps you in the game.
It’s a simple plan, easy to follow, and perfect for one bet a day. For the next 30 days I am going to show you how it works in practice. Starting today with today’s free tip
Ripon
3:50 – Capital Guarantee – £2 win – 7/2
Good luck with your Bank Monday bets.
John