Something For The Weekend

Morning all,

A potentially stellar weekend of racing to look forward to. It’s just a shame that there has been a serious lack of rain in the last month. Given the lack of the wet stuff it looks like field sizes will be hit. For example; looking at the field for the bet365 Edinburgh National Handicap Chase. Just 11 runners were left in at Monday’s confirmation stage.

Inside today’s main piece and continuing tomorrow. I will be looking at some horses to note across the weekend. Today I preview Saturday’s Paddy Power Irish Gold Cup at the Dublin Racing Festival. Plus, I have a couple of ante post picks for Edinburgh National at Musselburgh and a Wednesday tip at the end.

On Saturday there’s Grade 1 action both sides of the Irish Sea. There’s seven race card for day one of the Dublin Racing Festival which includes four Grade 1 races. The highlight for many will be the Paddy Power Irish Gold Cup (3.15)

The best of the action this side of the Irish Sea comes from Sandown where the Virgin Bet Scilly Isles Novices' Chase (2.20) takes place. At Wetherby, the William Hill Towton Novices' Chase (2.30).

Up at Musselburgh it’s day one of Scottish Cheltenham Trials Weekend and the highlights of a seven-race card includes the Frodon Novices' Chase (12.57), Scottish County Hurdle (2.40) and Edinburgh National (3.45).

Something For the Weekend – Part 1

On Saturday there’s Grade 1 action both sides of the Irish Sea. There’s seven race card for day one of the Dublin Racing Festival which includes four Grade 1 races. The highlight for many will be the Paddy Power Irish Gold Cup (3.15).

The best of the action this side of the Irish Sea comes from Sandown where the Virgin Bet Scilly Isles Novices' Chase (2.20) takes place. At Wetherby, the William Hill Towton Novices' Chase (2.30).

Up at Musselburgh it’s day one of Scottish Cheltenham Trials Weekend and the highlights of a seven-race card includes the Frodon Novices' Chase (12.57), Scottish County Hurdle (2.40) and Edinburgh National (3.45).

The ITV cameras are covering 11 races live on Saturday. Five from Sandown, three from Musselburgh and one from Wetherby. As a bonus they are also covering two races from the Dublin Racing Festival, including the Paddy Power Irish Gold Cup.

Now we need is some rain at all the jumps tracks. Some rain is being forecast for the week but at the time of writing it doesn’t like it will be much. At the time of writing. Both Sandown and Musselburgh have been watering to prevent the ground getting too quick.

It hard to believe, it’s the beginning of February and our racecourses are having to water to maintain the ground but it’s the times we live in.

Onto the action on the track and there’s plenty to get through today.  I have a few strong fancies for this weekend and if you want them all you can get them by joining my Victor Value service here.

Edinburgh National – Musselburgh

Top-weight Highland Hunter has been installed as the ante post favourite (9/4). The Paul Nicholls trained runner looks a worthy market leader after his 9-length 2nd of 20 to Iwilldoit in Welsh Grand National at Chepstow. He finished 7-lengths clear of the third day and can race off the same mark here. On the negative side this will be some of the quickest ground he’s raced on although he did win on good to soft at Sandown two starts back.  

Given the forecast going I’m happy to take the favourite on and the two I like two at the prices are Get Out The Gate and the veteran Step Back.

You can’t say the Sandy Thomson yard is in red hot form of late but you can guarantee he’s laid out a few for the meeting and one of them could be Get Out The Gate. The 9-year-old is twice a winner here over hurdles so no problems with the track. Ok, he’s yet to race beyond 3m 1f but one big plus is the likely going, as five of his six career wins have come on good ground.

Step Back might be a 12-year-old but the 2018 bet365 Gold Cup Winner showed he was no back number when making all to Veterans' Handicap Chase at Sandown in November 2020. Off for 12 months he was a well beaten 34 length 7th of 13 to Annsam in Silver Cup at Ascot in December. Granted we don’t know how much ability remains. However, on the plus side he’s at best going right-handed, on good, good to soft going – 4 wins from 7 starts +19.5 5 places. Jack Tudor has been booked for the ride and he’s 2-2 on the horse.

Verdict:  Get Out Of The Gate and Step Back are couple of value ante post picks against the favourite.

Step Back – 14/1 @ William Hill & Sky Bet.

Get Out Of The Gate – 10/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes.

Paddy Power Irish Gold Cup – Leopardstown

Just the nine remain in Saturday’s feature race of the Dublin Racing Festival. It’s likely this race will cut up at the final declaration stage. This is a good prize to be won. However, the lure of the Cheltenham Festival means the likes A Plus Tard & Al Boum Photo won’t be running, Indeed the latter is a likely possible for a handicap hurdle over the weekend.

Kemboy Bids to Retain Crown

Last year’s winner Kemboy is the bookies ante post favourite, A best priced 5/2 and you can understand why. Leopardstown is his track and the 10-year-old advertised his credentials for back-to-back wins in the race when a ¾-length 3^rd of 8 to Galvin in the Grade 1 Savills Chase over C&D last time.

Next in the ante post betting is last year’s Cheltenham Gold Cup winner Minella Indo (7/2). A big disappointment in the King George VI on his last start. The 9-year-old has been given the go ahead to run on Saturday. Although 3m on decent ground will surely be on the side short for him, as it was when he finished 4th in last year's race.

Paul Nicholls brings over Frodon, a best priced 3/1 with Ladbrokes. He’s not getting younger but this looks a winnable race for the 10-year-old. With Kemboy he should ensure that there is a good gallop.

Besides Kemboy. Willie Mullins also has Asterion Forlonge, Janidil and Cilaos Emery among the entries. I’m not sure the latter pair are at their best at 3m.

Asterion Forlonge (11/2) has come down when still in with a chance on his last two starts in Grade 1 company. He’s clearly got the talent to win a race like this if, and it’s a big if, his jumping holds up.

Don’t Rule Out the Elliott Runners

Gordon Elliott runs Delta Work, Conflated and Mount Ida. 

Delta Work (14/1) won this in 2019. However, he hasn’t been seen at his best since that success and was only third in this last year. He shaped with a bit of promise when 5 ¾ length 4th of 5 to Frodon at Down Royal on his seasonal return but was well below his best in the Savills Chase.  If he was to bounce back to something like his best 14/1 would look big.

Conflated (33/1) has a bit to find on ratings and hasn’t always impressed with his jumping in the past. However. he finally got it together in the jumping stakes when winning the valuable Foxrock Handicap Chase (2m 4f) at Navan last time. The 8-year-old looks to be going the right way and holds a Gold Cup entry. The 33/1 available with Coral & Ladbrokes also looks big.

Mount Ida (20/1) came from what looked an impossible position to win the Kim Muir at last season’s Cheltenham Festival. The mare has won both starts in mares’ only chases over 2m 4f/2m 5f) this season. Capable of better returned to 3m+ and looks an interesting runner.

Wednesday Racing

There jump cards at Exeter and Leicester and all-weather fans can enjoy action from Dundalk and Kempton.  

Rock Of Tuskar got the column back among the winners yesterday. He was returned at 6/1 but bigger prices where available this morning.

There are few that I like the look of today. However, today’s selection runs in a tight little handicap chase at Leicester.

Leicester

3:20 – Useful hurdler Patroclus was well fancied, returned 11/4, for his seasonal return/chase debut at Newbury 35-days ago. The 6-year-old who has the size for jumping a fence shaped like the run was needed last time. The drop back to 2m 4f shouldn’t inconvenience him. Although this will be the quickest ground he’s raced on. Better can be expected as he gains more experience over the larger obstacles.

Top-weight Guy, trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies, looked set for a good season when finishing a 2-length 2^nd of 9 at Market Rasen (good) on his seasonal return and was closing on the leader when making a bad mistake two out when runner-up back again at Ascot. Below his best when only 6^th of 9 back at Ascot last time. He’s suited by a sound surface and this race represents a drop-in class.

Trainer Tom George saddled the winner of this race 2016 & 2017 and runs Crealion. Twice a winner over fences. The 6-year-old arguably put in a personal best when a 1 ¾ length 2nd of 9 to Family Business over C&D three weeks ago. He gets 3lb from that one and has a good chance of reverse placings today. He goes well on quick ground too so shouldn’t be far away.

Selection: Guy – 3/1 – Gen.

Good luck with your Wednesday bets.

John