Hi all,
Inside today’s main I’m previewing Saturday’s St Leger at Doncaster.
The final British Classic is almost upon us.
The 2,000 Guineas and the Epsom Derby seem distant memories as we look forward to the St Leger.
‘Winter comes in with the tail of the last horse in the St Leger'.
In the era of climate change, I’m not sure how accurate that saying but it’s one I love and its was chilly this morning,
Doncaster’s St Leger Festival gets underway on Thursday rather than Wednesday. It remains a four day meeting, but this year’s Festival ends on Sunday.
I’m heading there on Thursday to watch the opening day’s action. It’s a bit since I went to Doncaster so I’m looking forward to seeing if things have changed.
Of all the big flat racing summer festivals I think the four days at Doncaster are the weakest. Three days would be enough, and it would be even better if it was just two.
The recent showers mean the going has changed at Doncaster to good to soft, soft in places. There’s more showers forecast but they shouldn’t be heavy so at least we won’t see a Goodwood type swamp.
What’s needed to win a St Leger?
A mix of stamina and speed.
Given the distance of the race 1m 6 ½ f. A horse needs the stamina to last home those final couple of furlongs.
Its not just stamina that wins a St Leger but also a touch of speed. A St Leger winner needs a decent change of gear in the closing stages to secure victory.
Nine were left in the final classic of the 2023 flat season. It’s a small but select field and has open look to it.
Of those nine, four are trained by Aidan O’Brien – Continuous, Tower of London, Denmark and Alexandroupolis and three are trained by John & Thady Gosden.
The O’Brien Quartet
Group 2 Great Voltigeur Stakes Winner Continuous (100/30) is the O’Brien first string. He ran at York like he would be suited to the step to the St Leger distance and could well go off favourite on the day.
Tower Of London (12/1) has progressed with each of his four starts this season winning at Leopardstown & Down Royal. We haven’t seen the Galileo colt since he was an unlucky in a slowly run Bahrain Trophy (1m 5f) at Newmarket in July. He shaped that day like a stayer and his full brother Capri won the race in 2017.
Denmark (66/1) ran at Haydock last Saturday and might not run. Alexandroupolis (50/1) looks a potential pacemaker if he does take his place in the line-up.
The Gosden Trio
Gregory (3/1) just heads the ante post betting. The drop back to 1m 4f didn’t really suit him when a 4 ½ length 3rd of 5 to Continuous last time. He was giving the O’Brien colt 3lb that day so is entitled to be closer on Saturday given his stamina for 1m 6f is already proven. An unknown would be easy ground as the John & Thady Gosden colt has yet to race on ground worse than good.
Arrest a disappointing favourite on quick ground in the Derby and at Royal Ascot bounced back to winning ways for a return to an easier surface in the Group 3 Geoffrey Freer Stakes at Newbury last month. Both the Leger trip and track should suit the colt, but he does need good to soft or softer ground to be at his best.
Middle Earth has improved with each of his four starts and ran out a decisive winner of the Melrose Handicap (1m 6f) at York last month. He’ll need to have improved again from York, which is likely, and. Connections have supplemented him for the race which is a positive and whilst easy ground is an unknown, he looks set for a big run.
A Royal Winner?
Desert Hero came from the rear two win a strongly run King George VI Handicap at Royal Ascot. It was quick ground at Asco. However, the Sea The Stars colt showed his ground and tactical versatility when winning a soft ground and more steadily run Group 3 Gordon Stakes at Goodwood last time. Can the William Haggas trained colt give HM The King & HM The Queen a first Group 1 success?
Chesspiece was a neck behind Desert Hero at Goodwood last time. He made the running and might have benefited from setting more of a stamina test that day. He’s a likeable colt he’s proven over the distance having finished third to Gregory in the Queen’s Vase at Royal Ascot. He’s improved since Ascot and any ease in the ground will suit him. I advised him ante post (16/1) for the St Leger after he won at Hamilton two starts back.
St Leger Verdict:
It’s as open a renewal as we have seen in recent seasons. I want to take the front two in ante post the betting Gregory and Continuous on.
The return of the rain has meant that Arrest has come in for support. Of the rest I’m happy with Chesspiece at my ante post odds and Tower Of London would be interesting if given his chance by Aidan O’Brien.
Wednesday Preview
It’s the final meeting of this year’s Racing League at Southwell this evening. Despite my disdain for all things Racing League today’s selection is from the last race at Southwell.
Southwell
8:45 – Onesmoothoperator is a useful handicapper on his day and has won here previously but his losing run goes back to December 2021. The 5-year-old bounced back to form last time when a length 2nd of 13 at Newcastle 13 days ago. He’s been nudged up 1lb since but should be in the mix once more provide they go a decent gallop. Valsad is interesting on all-weather debut. The 4-year-old has just had the eight starts and was only beaten a neck by an improving 3-year-old last time. He’s 4lb higher now but capable of another big run if taking to the surface.
Valsad – 6/1.
Good luck with your Wednesday bets.
John