Hi all,
Inside today’s main piece I’m previewing Saturday’s big handicap the Grand National Trial at Haydock
Haydock – Grand National Trial Handicap Chase
Saturday’s William Hill-sponsored Grand National Trial at Haydock was once a key prep for Aintree’s big race. With the likes of Red Rum and Party Politics taking the race but its influence has faded in recent years.
No winner this century has completed the Haydock–Aintree double. Only Neptune Collonges, runner-up here in 2012, went on to win the Grand National in the same season.
None of the last 12 winners of this race have won on their next start and only one of the last 12 has managed another victory in the same campaign.
So rather than a springboard to Aintree glory, this is better viewed as a seasonal summit race for staying handicappers. With £56,950 to the winner, it’s still a valuable prize in its own right, even if its wider importance has faded.
As expected L'Homme Presse (12-0) and Mr Vango (11-4) weren’t left in the race on Monday. That means the weights have risen significantly with Top Of The Bill on 145 top-weight (12-0).
That makes this year’s race more competitive with just one horse not set to carry its correct weight. However, it also means it’s another big handicap which lacks quality looking at the official ratings.
Yeah Man the 2024 winner busted several key trends. He was only a 7yo and had not previously won twice over fences, in fact, his 2024 success was his first chase victory.
Aside from that anomaly, ten of the last eleven winners had been aged 8–11, arrived with 2–4 chase wins already on their CV and had an Official Rating between 136 and 149.
It will be interesting to see how helpful that Official Rating (OR) is this year. Given just seven of this year’s entries have an OR of 136+.
Trends Verdict
Looking at the trends since 2015 (11 winners from 119 runners):
Trends can be broken Yeah Man proved that, but the key profile remains clear:
Aged 8–11
Two to four chase wins
OR between 136 and 149
Leading Contenders
Just 12 were left in the race at Monday’s final confirmation stage with just four of them officially rated 136+.
Deafening Silence
Dan Skelton’s runner heads the ante-post betting after his third in the Coral Welsh Grand National. Obvious claims, but just one chase win and an OR of 133 — which puts him outside the typical profile.
Myretown
Cheltenham Festival winner (Ultima Handicap Chase) and fair fourth in the Peter Marsh Handicap Chase here (3m1½f) last month. Capable of winning a race like this off 142, but his jumping errors are becoming a concern and yard form is a negative.
Rivers Corner
Improved for a real stamina test in the mud when winning at Wincanton (3m2½f) last time. There should be more to come over marathon trips. Ticks most trend boxes apart from the OR (127).
Monbeg Genius
Back to form when fifth in the Welsh Grand National last time. The 10yo fits the trends profile well. Respected from a yard that’s had two placed runners in the race since 2022.
Richmond Lake
Seemingly proved his stamina for 3m1½f when a neck second in the Peter Marsh here last time. This step up to 3m4½f asks another question, but he remains well treated if he stays. Stablemate Grand Albert never got competitive when fifth in the in the Tommy Whittle Handicap Chase (3m1½f) here last time. He’s been dropped 3lb since and remains open to improvement for the step up to a marathon trip.
Grand Geste
Looked a big improver when winning the Tommy Whittle but was never disappointing when pulled up in the Great Yorkshire Chase at Doncaster last time. That run is best forgiven and he remains capable of better. but the yard is going through a quiet spell.
Good luck with your Wednesday bets.
John