Hi all,
That’s ‘Super Saturday’ out of the way for another 12 months.
Inside today’s main piece you can read my thoughts on Saturday’s big race action.
I mentioned last week how I have come to embrace the day as a punter. However, as a pundit and writing 13 race previews It’s not something I want to do more than once a year. In truth I think seven maybe eight is the max you can analyse before you brain starts to go numb. Combine all that with poor weather and its becomes almost impossible.
Least said about the weekend weather the better. I can’t remember a gloomier day at Newmarket’s July Festival than Friday’s. Its July and we end up weather more akin to the autumn than mid- summer.
Fingers crossed the weather will be better at Goodwood & York next month for their big festivals.
Super Saturday Review
The racing was ultra-competitive on Saturday despite plenty of non-runners due to the changed ground at the various racecourses. However, competitive fields usually provide punters with an opportunity to land decent priced winners.
July Cup: It’s another slam dunk for Shaquille
In this year’s race we had the first two in the Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot in Shaquille and Little Big Bear. The shock winner of the Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes Khaadem. Ddual Group 1 winner Kinross and the improving filly Azure Blue and we had the makings of a competitive if not vintage renewal of the race.
Granted the field size could have been bigger just the eight runners and the last time there was less than ten runners was in 1997. The issue of small fields wasn’t just confined to Saturday’s race it was a problem for all the pattern races over the three days.
Just as at Royal Ascot Shaquille fluffed the start but this time, he only lost a couple of lengths. He then pulled like a train and carted himself to the front at halfway. Given how keen he’d been there’s no way he should have kept going to win by 1 ½ lengths.
The winner has some engine. He wins his races despite doing everything wrong at the start and the middle of his races. I would love to see him drop back to 5f for the Nunthorpe at York.
The only surprise he was sent off only joint favourite (5/2) with Little Big Bear who he had beaten fair and square at Ascot.
I was loathe to against him after the favour he did me last time, but I went with Azure Blue. The filly wasn’t at her best. Like the winner she was very keen, but she had nothing more to give a furlong out. This wasn’t her true running.
Little Big Bear who had interrupted preparation for the race was probably beaten when squeezed up 2f out.
City Of Troy in Superlative success
Just 70 minutes earlier there was plenty of market confidence behind City Of Troy in the Group 2 Superlative Stakes. The money wasn’t misplaced either as the colt beat his eight rivals by 6 ½ lengths.
Always in a prominent position he produced an impressive change of gear to power clear of some toiling rivals inside the final furlong.
Predictably the bookies cut City Of Troy into favouritism for next year’s 2,000 Guineas and Derby after this impressive success.
On Sunday he was 3/1 for the first colts classic and 4/1 for the Derby. There’s a lot of water to go under the bridge before next season’s Classics. However, I wouldn’t want to be a layer of the colt at those prices.
The best juvenile performance of the season? For me, yes.
The Group 1 National Stakes at the Curragh and the Dewhurst Stakes will be on the colts agenda. It’s still early in the season but it will take a good one to lower his colours. Mind you his stablemate River Tiber is no back number and hasn’t done anything wrong so far this season.
Biggles flies to victory
Fresh from his success on City Of Troy 35 minutes earlier. Ryan Moore had an armchair ride on Biggles in the Bunbury Cup. His only concern was getting a clear run 1f out but once he did Biggles ran out a decisive 2 length winner.
After runner-up effort in the Buckingham Palace Royal Ascot. I wrote in my review of the meeting.
“His best efforts prior to this had come with some ease in the ground. Despite being a 6-year-old, he’s lightly raced for his age and can land a decent handicap pot over 7f.
I advised him to Victor Value subscribers at 8/1 on Friday. Hopefully some of you were on at that price. Or maybe you were on at the 25/1 that was available about him when the ante post market opened.
The eyecatchers/tracker horses pieces are worth reading because they do identify plenty of future winners.
Amy grabs the York beer money
York’s John Smith’s Cup is one of the longest running sponsorships in sport. And not for the first time its history it produced a thrilling finish with the Amy Murphy trained Pride Of America just holding off Astro King by a nose. The runner-up is a frustrating horse who will be nudged up the weights for not winning but can hopefully land a nice pot one day.
Pride Of America was better positioned than the runner-up whose effort can be upgraded. That said the winner had been plenty keen enough so did well to hang on as well as he did.
Hamish was sent off a hot favourite (4/9) for the Group 3 Silver Cup Stakes and he duly made it 3-3 over C&D.
Odds on backers must have been sweating though as he had to work hard for his success. Jockey Tom Marquand can take plenty of credit for the 6-year-old’s success. He lifted the horse home on ground that wasn’t as soft as the official going description suggests.
Godolphin gelding masters Summer Mile rivals
With all top class action on offer at Newmarket & York it’s easy to forget Saturday’s Ascot card. The feature race of that card was the Group 2 Summer Mile which went the way of Master Of The Seas.
The Charlie Appleby trained 5-year-old came from off a suicidal gallop to win in decisive fashion to take his career record to 6 wins from 13 starts. He can be hard puller, so the strong pace really suited him. He doesn’t often get his favoured pace set up and you can see why the trainer is thinking of campaigning him in America.
On his day and when he gets a strong gallop, he remains capable of being competitive in Group 1 company. A race like the Breeders’ Cup Mile could be ideal for the gelding who has a good record off 100+ day layoff.
Punting Verdict:
The weather and uncertainty about the actual going descriptions made punting difficult over the weekend.
Those who joined the Victor Value service for the week made a profit over the three days with two more winners coming on Super Saturday.
Ok, it wasn’t as big a profit as for Royal Ascot, but a profit is a profit and that’s all that matters.
Those who took up the £5 offer ended up with a tidy return on their investment. That makes all the hard work even more palatable.
Monday Preview
The most competitive race on Monday is Ayr Gold Cup Trial Handicap (3:45). Sixteen have been declared for this Class 3 handicap. With £15,462 on offer to the winner it’s a decent pot for a Monday and rightly attracted a decent sized field. It’s that handicap that I’m putting under the microscope.
Ayr
The going at Ayr on Sunday was being described as soft, good to soft in places and more rain was being forecast so we shouldn’t be seeing much good in the going description.
3:45 – Tinto has won on soft (6f) in the past but he’s very best form has come on a sound surface. He put in decent effort when a 2 ½ length 3rd of 8 at Thirsk 12 days ago. He’s now 3lb below his last winning mark and should go close.
Abduction is a tricky horse to win with, but he’s been running well this season over a variety of distances from 5f to 7f. He was a ½ length 3rd of 8 over C&D in May from 2lb higher. Twice a course winner over 7f. He seems likely to give an good account of himself if he gets the strong pace he needs.
Illusionist went into the tracker when he finished a 1 ¼ length 3rd of 10 at Ripon in April. Poor at York next time but his 2 ¾ length 6th of 12 at Haydock last month was a better effort on ground that would have been plenty quick enough for him. He might be better over 5f but he like plenty of ease in the ground and is 3lb below his last winning mark.
Thunder Roar lightly raced, just the five career starts the 4-year-old made a winning stable debut for Tony Coyle when comfortably seeing off 10 rivals here (7f) 7 days ago. It looks like soft ground is what he needs and although he has a 5lb penalty to carry and is up a couple of notches in class he might be capable of better.
Monday Selection:
It's not the Ayr feature that provides today's selection though. Instead I'm going for one in the lucky last.
Ayr
5:30 – Ayr Poet has run well on both starts this season and didn’t get the best of passages when a 1¾ lengths 5th of 12 to a stablemate at Musselburgh 12 days ago. All six career wins have come in Class 6 company. However, he was only beaten a neck in a Class 5 (1m) here last September from a 6lb higher mark. Yards runners going well and although he might want drier ground over 1m 2f he shouldn’t be far away.
Ayr Poet – 10/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes.
Good luck with your Monday bets.
John