Super Sub – Goodwood

Hello everyone,

I’m Alex and I’m coming in as a super sub for the next couple of days while John is away. In today’s piece I’m going to give you a little background to myself and talk through a couple of races at Goodwood.

Who Am I?

I’m Alex Peperell and I run a service called Pep’s Big Race Tips (which you can see more about here). As the name suggests, the races I predominantly focus on is the big stuff. Anything with the higher class horses; the Listed, Group and Graded races are my bread and butter.

I do delve into handicaps as well, but they don’t wet my appetite quite as much. I love the best taking on the best and seeing the best horse win.

Over the next couple of days I'd like to give you some insight into how I analyse races. Hopefully I can make you some money along the way, starting with Goodwood!

Goodwood

The ground is officially described as soft, good to soft in places at the time I'm posting this. The sun is due to be out all day so it won’t be getting any worse than what’s described that’s for sure. However, I wouldn’t expect it to quicken up too much either as it’s only moderately warm.

1.50pm – Virgin Bet Best Odds Daily “Confined” Conditions Stakes – 1m2f

Royal Playwright is the odds-on favourite for this, and that can only be coming from his two-year-old form. He won on his debut, but that’s the only time he’s managed to get his head in front. Third and second place finishes in the Solario and Royal Lodge last season, respectively, have to be what today’s price is based upon. Quite frankly since then, he’s been very disappointing.

It will be Mister Rizz’s fifth time on a racecourse as he only made his debut this year. His second to Fifth Column and beating of Dangerman have both worked out well in handicaps. He was under a length behind Royal Playwright in the Dante, despite not coming out of the gates at all well. Mister Rizz was third behind Damysus in a Group 3 last time with a bit more give underfoot. I think he has more scope for improvement than the favourite, especially on this surface.

I think we know what Too Soon is and his rating of 95 backs that up. He’s been soundly beaten in all his starts this season. He doesn’t have the potential of Mister Rizz.

3.35pm – Virgin Bet Foundation Stakes (Listed Race) – 1m2f

Ancient Wisdom opened up favourite for this and he’s a little hard to assess. He throws in a real mixed bag of performances. His last go at this trip was a good day as he was second to Al Aasy at Sandown, which is a solid form. But I don’t think he’s one to trust at a short price.

London Gold Cup winner Saddadd is aiming to make it three on the bounce. He is certainly improving but this is quite a big step up against seasoned horses who are well established in group company.

Starzintheireyes is a very interesting runner returning from a long absence. He won the Autumn Stakes on his final start last season on bad ground, but that’s not to say he’s dependent on it. There is plenty of potential in him and he could be dangerous if picking up where he left off, but the absence is a worry.

A benchmark is set by Bolster, who always runs well at this trip. He ran well enough in a Group 2 at Chester in May and again in a handicap over this course and distance at Glorious Goodwood. I’d be surprised if he didn’t find at least one or two too good, but he will run his race.

Okeechobee is a horse that still has more to offer. His last two efforts have been disappointing, but they’ve been on ground a lot faster than he wants. He’s a Group 3 winner and more give underfoot today is definitely going to suit him and I’d expect a better performance from him today than we’ve seen recently, so his price is attractive. I wouldn't want the ground to dry out too much though – I don't think he wants it any better than good.

Bets

Mister Rizz – 2pts Win (9/4 generally available)

Okeechobee – 0.5pts Each Way (18/1 available in some places, 16/1 generally)