Tag Archives: accuracy

Create your own speed ratings

Over the last few years I have created a number of different ratings for our own use and clients but these have all be form related.

So I guess it was only a matter of time before the question of speed ratings came up.

Some people argue that speed is the only real way to judge a horses chance of winning a race…

But as with all things racing, it is never quite that simple.

Speed of course is related to distance.

It is the time it took the horse to run the race divided by the distance that gives us the speed at which the horse travelled.

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Using Betfair as a Value Finding Tool 5

Todays’ article has been written by Kieran Ward, professional gambler, tipster and betting blogger over at www.makeyourbettingpay.co.uk

Yesterday, we established that Betfair markets in the few minutes before a race goes off are by far the most accurate guide we have to a horse’s true chance of winning a race.

Now, at first glance it would seem of little use to know that Betfair is our most accurate guide to true probability – when it only becomes truly accurate in the final few minutes before the race.

Surely by that time all the value prices have gone?

Well, yes they have.

However simply knowing that the prices on Betfair are becoming progressively more accurate throughout the day, points us towards a very simple method of ensuring we are getting value on our bets.

If, earlier in the day, we can identify and back those horses that are shortening in price and are therefore likely to be shorter on Betfair in those final moments before the race – we have automatically found value.

Remember that sentence – therein lies the key to long term betting profits.

As long as we can identify horses that will end up a shorter price on Betfair at the off, than the price we are taking now – we cannot fail to make money in the long term!

Now, identifying those horses, with any accuracy, is easier said than done. It can be achieved in a number of ways and you are best searching out a method that suits you

Here’s one method that I use:

Each morning I have a good idea of a fair price for all the runners I am interested in based on form study, trainer stats/jockey stats, my own ratings and a variety of other indicators.

I then monitor the Betfair and bookmaker prices throughout the day to identify whether my opinion is being confirmed/refuted by the markets. This will involve detailed analysis and prediction of price movements based on a variety of indicators.

What’s key in all this is I’m rarely trying to identify the winner of a race. I’m simply using market analysis to identify the horses that are likely to go off at a shorter price than they are currently available at. Having found that value, the winners take care of themselves in the long run.

The analysis of price trends will not be right all the time – that’s impossible – but it doesn’t need to be. As long as it is right most of the time, profits are guaranteed.

In conclusion, finding value is the route to long-term profitability and I hope that my observations on the Betfair markets make finding value that little bit easier for you.

Today's Selection

Lingfield 3.05 Khawatim – win bet – 13/8 Paddy Power

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Value in Horse Racing

Today’s article has been written by Kieran Ward, professional gambler, tipster and betting blogger over at www.makeyourbettingpay.co.uk

In the coin toss example in yesterdays article, we realised that it would be very hard to find a bookmaker offering a value price about an event with easily calculated, fixed probabilities.

But what happens if we are looking at an event where there are a huge number of factors that can influence the final result – ground conditions, fitness, class, stamina, pace, speed, determination, draw, jumping ability, toughness, breeding – on and on ad infinitum.

A horse race, for example.

Would it be quite so easy for the bookmaker to set prices with the same accuracy as in the coin toss example?

Are the true probabilities involved as easily calculated in a horse race as they are in a simple event like a coin toss?

Of course not.

There is margin for errors in such a complex event – sometimes huge errors.

Bookmakers employ odds compilers whose job it is to assess the myriad factors mentioned above and create odds that reflect the true probability of any horse winning a race. These odds are then tightened to create an over round – the method by which the bookmaker locks in his profit if he balances his book.

I won’t go into the over-round in any great detail here. There are some excellent articles freely available online that explain it – in fact I’ve found a decent explanation to save you the trouble of hunting for one:

http://www.bettingmarket.com/overround.htm

In most instances, the odds compilers are very good at their jobs (though not in all as the hole in one gang so profitably demonstrated) and to expose any flaws in their odds, we need to be at least as knowledgeable and experienced. Where we have an advantage over the odds compilers is our ability to pick and choose the races we get involved in.

They need to get every price right, we only need to find the odd wrong price.

If we specialise in a particular type of horse racing, our chances of knowing more than the odds compiler are increased.

For many years I specialised in big field handicaps – the kind of races that most professional punters hate – because I always found there was a lot of potential in such difficult to evaluate events.

Initially, and for many years, my hunt for value led me to compile my own odds for each and every race I wanted to get involved in. This is an incredibly valuable skill and anybody taking their punting seriously is well advised to learn it.

There are numerous articles available online where you can pick up clear, concise advice on how to compile your own odds. I’ve found a really good thread on The Racing Forum that explains some methods of converting your opinion in a race into odds and probabilities:

http://www.theracingforum.co.uk/horse-racing-forum/viewtopic.php?forum_uri=&t=84941&start=

Please note here that you will need to find a reliable, accurate method of formulating your opinion before you will be able to create reliable and accurate odds! You need to be confident in your opinion and that will only come with time, experience and some past results!

Once you formulated your own prices about an event (and you trust those prices), finding value in the bookmakers odds will be a walk in the park.

However there are drawbacks in creating your own odds – the biggest of which is the time consuming nature of the process. Even working at it full-time, I would often only have time to analyse 3 or 4 races a day. As a result, the number of value opportunities I was able to find was limited. If the number of opportunities are limited, you need to stake more on each one of them to get decent profits – exposing yourself to greater single event risk.

As a result I was always on the hunt for quicker, easier ways of locating value – that way I could find more opportunities, turn my money over faster and create greater profits – at the same time exposing myself to less risk.

The perfect win-win – but could I find it?

Tomorrow I will be looking at a quicker, simpler way of identifying value.

Today's Selection

Ayr 1.10 One for Hocky – each way bet – Sky Bet 12/1

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Big Priced Golf Selections

Following on from my post the other day about big priced selections and specifically Dave Bicknell's Golf selections, today I have for you Dave's full analysis and selections for the McGladrey Classic which tee's off at 12.35 today.

Don't forget to check out http://proballclub.co.uk/ for full details of Dave's selections and his past results.

The Pro Ball service is £50,000 in profit this year to £100 stakes and is the perfect service if you are looking for a balanced portfolio with plenty of action.


THE MCGLADREY CLASSIC

We travel this week to georgia and the Sea side course sea island is our home for the week. This is a well respected venue used as a practice course for many pro's who are resident in the area.

Sea island golf club is a ocean side links course thattests all aspects of your game . It's exposed so any sea breeze can become a factor to how you approach this test. It's just above the 7000 yard mark and is a par 70 that will require accuracy to the undulating fairways protected by marshland,waste areas and large fairway bunkers, you will require course management and precise approach play to the fast putting surfaces as well as the ability to scramble and deal with any costal conditions.

The weather for this week looks to start well with winds estimated between 10-15 mph the weekend is a little tougher to call but predictions are for no major change.

E/W PICKS

Z JOHNSON 12-1
J FURYK 14-1
J DAY 16-1
B ADAMS 66-1
G CHRISTIAN 150-1
D MATHIS 200-1

ZACH JOHNSON Is a local resident who knows the course well his accuracy and great short game touch make him a must pick, he did miss the cut last year but was involved in a lot of off course work through out the week , he will be returning from a two week lay off after the ryder cup so is well rested, his two wins this year also came after two week lay offs.

J FURYK Is only missing a win he has constantly put himself in position to close this year and although tasted disappointment he is becoming more like the player who won the fed ex cup and will turn these chances into victories, it's a week field and he also is returning after a couple of weeks rest , expect an in form furyk who is made for this course 11th here last year.

J DAY Is another player trying to get back to the heights he once occupied , he has four top tens this year which by his standards is poor and i must admit his odds are not very generous but its what he did last time out at the Justin Timberlake event that has me interested, all four rounds were in the 60's , he finished the weekend with rounds of 64,65 (that included a double bogey finish) and he birdied 7 of his first 9 holes taking just 10 putts , jason has been up and down this year with his eye off the ball maybe caused to his new edition in the family but when a player gets that hot making birdies and holing putts you have to take some notice , this could be a kick start to something more.

B ADAMS Has popped up in a few places this year playing some great golf but not getting all he deserves, now in the fall series he has a real chance in weaker fields to reap some rewards. Took a week off after finishing 8th at the Timberlake making 18 birdies and an eagle , this isn't a one off with him lying inside the top 50 for par breakers , he's local and has made the cut the last two years not playing anywhere near his current form.

G CHRISTIAN Missed his first cut in eight events last week after a poor first round , he did bounce back with a nice 68 and will look to continue some excellent form into this event , the course should be right up his street short par 70 with course management a premium , he has great GIR stats and also will compete from 100 yards in only thing holding him back is a sometimes cold putter .

D MATHIS Just inside the top 125 so he needs a big week ,great putter who finished just outside the top 20 last week , finished 15th last year and will look at his strokes gained putting stats and excellent approach play from inside 100 yards to figure big , as with a lot of players he knows how important this tournament is for guaranteed starts next year, he;s responding well to the pressure and i see him taking care of business this week.

BACK BETS DAY 1

T GAINEY
M GOGGIN BACK
B BRYANT

MATT'S HAD GOOD RESULTS HIS LAST TWO EVENTS AND APPEARS TO BE TAKING ADVANTAGE OF SOME FULL TOUR STARTS , FINISHED LAST WEEK PLAYING WELL.

J OVERTON BACK
D CHOPRA
G WILLIS

JEFF IS ANOTHER IN FORM PLAYER ON THE EDGE OF RETURNING TO HIS TOP FORM, CLOSE TO BEING AN E/W PICK THIS WEEK.

Pro Ball Club members also have selections for the Perth International as well as football and racing bets.


Today's Selection Courtesy of Value Backing

Kempton 7.30 The Art Of Racing – win bet

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