Tag Archives: activities

Arbitrage Betting

Today's guest article is from Betting Insiders contributor Mark Jenkins.

Mark is a full time arber and targets a weekly tax free profit of £1,000 from his arbs.

Here is an excerpt from his article in this months Betting Insiders report…

There are many arbitrage techniques, but generally speaking the more you can break an outcome down the better your chances of finding a money making opportunity.

One of my personal favourites is using HT/FT odds to cover the draw.

For example one recent match saw the best odds available on the draw as 12/5 (3.40 decimal).

By taking the best available HT/FT odds you could achieve 3.51.

You are only interested in the draw at full time so you need to cover the outcomes as follows.

1) Home team at halftime draw at fulltime.
2) Draw at halftime draw at fulltime.
3) Away team at halftime draw at fulltime.

Then whatever is happening at halftime the draw is covered at fulltime.

The odds were, 18/1 (19.00), 9/2 (5.50) and 19/1 (20.00).

It is easy to calculate, again we need to turn the odds to a % so 100/19 + 100/5.5 +100/20 = 28.44% then divide 100 by the % to get the relevant decimal odds 100/28.44% = 3.516.

Now that might not seem like much of an improvement but in arbitrage terms it makes a 1% trade into a 2.5% one and that is a BIG improvement.

Making money through arbitrage is just one way that I make money, there are the regular bonuses offered by the bookmakers to take advantage of, and the little incentives, such as the 1% cash back currently offered by Skrill (formerly Moneybookers), where just by depositing into a bookmaker 1% is given back by way of points that can be cashed in for actual money, this is another way of profiting from your arbitrage activities, making a 0% arb into a profitable trade if you have to deposit.

One of my arbitrage colleagues actually moves his money around every Monday morning to make profits from this incentive.

You can read more of Mark's strategies for risk free cash, including how he made a risk free 75% on an arb, in this months Betting Insiders report.

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Today's Selection courtesy of Betting Insiders

Redc 1735 Sorcellerie (Gen 11/2)

Betting Against the Crowd

Today we have part two of Phil Eadie's words of wisdom regarding his preference for betting against the crowd.

If you missed yesterdays part one then you can read that here.

To find out more about Phil and to read his thoughts on today's Aintree meeting head over to his blog here, while you're there I recommend you check out his Partners in Profit system.

Here's Phil…

So yesterday we talked about how backing favourites is no way to make money and how you don't have to spend hours studying form to find winning selections.

We also talked about my losing spells and how it wasnt until later on day 3 that I finally got some winners and made a great profit from the festival.

Following on from Cheltenham I again employed the same approach using belligerence and contrary views in equal measure and on Easter Monday I set about tackling the fifty races held in the UK. I came up with 27 bets, 22 of which lost.

Not to be too harsh on myself 9 of them came a close second and 5 were third.

The five winners produced over 40 points profit on the day.

No amounts of hours of painstaking form study, ratings or analysis of weights were used in determining any of the selections.

They were all however chosen using a perfectly logical and structured set of rules that were stuck to rigidly.

The message here is to take a different view to the majority of people, don’t be afraid to be wrong more often than your right.

The losing runs of which there can be many should not be feared but welcomed as essential, because it is just those losing runs that create the value in the winners.

Of course to profit from such an approach you must first develop a method of finding enough winners at such prices that will return an overall profit.

Finding winners like these is about finding a niche to exploit.

You may choose to follow a particular trainer or jockey and develop an understanding of where and what type of races they do better in.

You may follow particular horses and determine what conditions they excel in.

But whatever you do, do not develop your niche around the best or most popular names in the game as these are bound to come in for strong support and will rarely offer value, even when they do win.

The best form guide to finding such a niche will be your own eyes and ears.

Winners I know are very nice, but its profit that counts.

Try to look beyond the hype don’t be enticed by pundits sound bites of high strike rates or certainties.

Anything can happen in a horse race and it usually does.

Even with this contrary approach it should be remembered there are exceptions and you don’t need to play in every race.

I am happy to confess I have an obsession with opposing favourites, although I can honestly say I never risked a penny opposing the likes of Frankel, Sprinter Sacre or Big Bucks.

Nor was I ever enticed into backing them, preferring just to keep my powder dry and just thoroughly enjoy the spectacle on offer.

There is a more serious message within the belligerence above. You should always have a structure to your betting. Decide on your method of selection and stick with it.

Use a staking plan that suits your style or more importantly your pocket.

Emotion should play no part in your betting activities. What you bet on is less important than how you bet.

Be a better bettor and not a gambler. It’s far more satisfying to develop your own methods than to blindly follow the advice of others.

Phil Eadie

www.betorbet.co.uk

Today's Selection

Aintree 3.40 Gullible Gordon – Each way bet – 12/1 Bet365, Bet Victor, Paddy Power, Sky Bet, Boylesport

Was There Money For It

Value Betting.

Will you back a horse that drifts?

If I had a pound for every time I've listened to somebody tell me how they really fancied the winner but were put off because there was no money for it…

So today's post is inspired by the 20/1 winner given by Value Backing yesterday that was best priced 8/1 in the morning.

Nobody wanted it with the bookies throughout the morning and it opened up on coarse at 14/1. It drifted on course to start at 20/1 and win.

Master Matt then went on to win easily by 7 lengths.

So the moral of the story today is to not be influenced by price movements and the betting activities of others. Here's a few thoughts on value.

The bigger the price you can get on your selection the better, if you fancy a horse and it drifts in the market that is a good thing.

It means you have a horse that you fancy and that the value in that selection is getting bigger. Many successful bettors would take this as a sign that they should increase their stakes!

If it's drifting it means that punters don't fancy it or that they are heavily backing something else. It doesn't mean that connections don't fancy it, not all connections bet. For many owners the thrill of owning a winner is enough they don't want or need to cloud things by betting.

The race yesterday was a class 3 race with a £9,000 prize to the winner, that's better than a hundred on at 20/1.

We are of course battling with basic human psychology when we go against the market because we all can be swayed by what others do and there have been numerous studies that show we can all doubt our judgement when somebody in authority goes against it. Added to that, that on the whole price is an indicator of the likelihood of a horse winning, we are up against it.

But if you have a reason to think that you have picked a winner, don't unpick it because of a price move or something some mug on the TV says!

Don't forgot always bet best odds guaranteed if you can you can imagine how sick it feels to get 8/1 on a horse that returns 20's 🙁

Today's Selection

Southwell 3.20 Street Battle – win bet – 6/1 Paddy Power, Sky Bet, Boyles

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