Tag Archives: AP McCoy

Nick Hardman Free Tips

A bright Friday morning brings with it the joy of six tips from the excellent Nick Hardman of the Betting School Insiders Club

We have some decent racing today with the meetings at Doncaster and Huntingdon standing out by some way. I have gone through the cards and picked out some horses with strong chances as well as picking out a couple of bigger priced each-way runners.

John Ferguson is 4-11 with his hurdlers at Doncaster in non-handicap races in the last 3 years for a level stakes profit of £9.29. He runs Buckwheat in the novice hurdle race at 1.05pm and champ AP McCoy is booked to ride.

Nicky Henderson’s Days Of Heaven rates a big danger after showing much improved form in a first time hood when scoring at Ludlow (hood fitted again here). With that in mind there are options for the forecast with these two likely to be a lot better than the rest.

Steel Summit’s winning sequence must come to an end at some point but the manner of his latest victory and the fact he is 10lbs well-in at the weights make him one of the strongest bets on the card in the 2.50pm.

Nicky Henderson has a good chance of taking the final race on the Doncaster card with Clondaw Banker in the maiden hurdle. His second behind Jolly’s Cracked it at Ascot back in November is smart form and he ran that same rival to within a length next time out. A reproduction of either of those efforts should be enough to win this.

It’s not often a horse with form figures 8696 would interest me but you should always put those figures into the context of the race the horse is running in.

In this case the race is a novice handicap hurdle and a quick look at the rest of the runners reveal they too have form figures that look like the numbers round from Countdown.

The horse in question is Haleo and he runs in the 1.40pm today at Doncaster.

What drew my eye to him originally is that he is rated 97 in a race where the top rated horses are rated 99.

However, he gets a hefty 13lbs weight-for-age allowance from those two horses.

He ran well for a long way on his last start before fading two from home to finish 6th, beaten 10 lengths in total. He is the 20/1 outsider of the field here but I think that allowance will see him finish closer than market expectations.

Over at Huntingdon we have a similar scenario in the 4.05pm handicap hurdle that closes the card. Cyclop is joint-top rated with Harry Hunt on an official rating of 120.

However, the 4yo Cyclop gets 11lbs from his 8yo rival. Also in his favour is the booking of Sam Twiston-Davies and he also has a C&D win to his name. Up 6lbs for that latest win he might still have a bit of improvement in him.

The best race on the Huntingdon card is the Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle Qualifier and top rated Aubusson is sure to prove popular dropping back into a handicap.

His latest effort saw him finish 3rd in the Grade 1 Long Walk Hurdle. Prior to that, he won the Grade 3 Fixed Brush Hurdle at Haydock to earn his current rating of 153.

He has to give 11lbs away here although Lizzie Kelly’s claim will off-set 7lbs of that.

However, this is a hot race with David Pipe’s Knight Of Noir also holding strong claims along with Dolatulo and Zeroshadesofgrey.

But the one really interesting runner is Ely Brown. He defied an absence of 198 days to win a Pertemps Qualifier at Ascot in 2012 off a mark of 125 and went on to finish 6th in the Pertemps Final at the Cheltenham festival.

He defied an absence of 206 days to win the same Qualifier again in 2013 off a mark of 135 before being sent novice chasing where he won a Grade 2 on his second start.

He has not been seen in almost a year but it is interesting he goes back over hurdles and is racing here off a mark of 139.

Charlie Deutsch takes off 5lbs so that puts Ely Brown 1lb below his last winning hurdles mark.

He has won first time out in the last 2 seasons. This would be some training feat were he to take this and it will be interesting to see how he goes.

The negatives are that he is returning from injury (as opposed to a seasonal break) and word is he is being aimed at a tilt at the Grand National so this may just be a pipe-opener.

That said you often see Grand National horses running at the Cheltenham festival in the Pertemps Final.

My interest is perked just enough to have a little each-way @12/1.

Doncaster 1.05pm Buckwheat tweet this tip
Doncaster 1.40pm Haleo @20/1 (e/w) tweet this tip
Doncaster 2.50pm Steel Summit @6/4 tweet this tip
Doncaster 3.50pm Clondaw Banker tweet this tip
Huntingdon 3.05pm Ely Brown @12/1 (e/w) tweet this tip
Huntingdon 4.05pm Cyclop @9/2 tweet this tip

Free Cheltenham Pointers

I’ve just finished reading this months Secret Betting Club report.

This month they have a detailed feature that looks at what equipment and applications are best for managing your betting on the go.

The article looks at the best bookmaker apps and the best apps for finding results quickly.

It also includes details of how you can watch more obscure events on your phone through streaming TV apps, which is useful if you are betting on events that aren’t streamed by the bookies. And how to access your home PC or server from your smartphone.

As you might expect the report is also filled with tips and opinions on the upcoming Cheltenham Festival including a couple of trainer and jockey pointers which have proved profitable in the past, which I’ve copied below…

Back all Ferdy Murphy runners over fences

Since 2003 by backing all Ferdy Murphy runners over fences you would have profited to the tune of £10,400 to £100 stakes.

Lay Paul Nicholls chasers

Amazingly Paul Nicholls has had 55 losing consecutive runners in chase races at the Festival and although it’s a strategy laden with risk given the armoury in the yard, the statistics don’t lie and Nicholls runners will always be liable to be overbet.

Back Barry Geraghty mounts in Grade 1 races

Since 2003 by following Geraghty’s mounts blindly in Grade 1 races you would have profited to the tune of £3745.00 to £100 level stakes.

Lay all AP McCoy mounts

Backing all AP McCoy mounts at SP since 2003 at £100 stakes would have resulted in a net loss of £6638.00. Laying McCoy mounts on the exchanges won’t show the same level of profit but would still have earned you a tidy sum.

SBC have a free Cheltenham report which is due out today and they also send a free sample of their members report to everyone who registers for the Cheltenham report. Click Here to get that

Today’s Selection courtesy of Bankers Bonus

3:10 Fontwell Utopian – win bet – 7/2 Bet365, Paddy Power, Bet Victor

Jockey Weights

Tony McCoy JockeyI read a very interesting piece of research last night that I thought you might find useful (profitable).

The new stats guy at What Really Wins Money, Sean Trivass, has investigated how jockeys perform when they get down to their minimum weight.

If you look at the jockey stats at Racing Post for any jockey at the top of the page it gives the lowest riding weight in the last 12 months.

Sean’s idea was that maybe it’s profitable to bet jockeys when they ride at their minimum weight.

His logic was that if the jockey had made a big effort to get his weight to it’s lowest then there must be good reason IE he’s onto a winner.

Sean researched the last 10 years to discover that pretty much that you would lose money across the board if you backed all jockeys when they ride at their minimum weight!

So down but not out he proceeded to work out a winning weight for each jockey.

It’s worth noting that this is research looking back at what would have been profitable so essentially it is back fitted data and in my opinion needs checking forward.

There are tables for the best weight in each of the last two years but alas these are only glimpsed at in an accompanying video.

Here is an example of the data given

Jockey               | Best Riding Wgt | Rides | Wins | P/L @ BSP | ROI BSP

AP McCoy          10-9                               238       53        £44.60     18.74%
R Johnson          10-4                               161        25        £113.29    70.37%
A Coleman         11-4                                102       15         £115.05    112.79%

So what do we think about that?

My opinion is that AP will win on anything that’s capable of winning whatever weight he is at.

These weights will be the weight carried, so the heavier weights will be with lead on board to make the handicappers allocated weight.

For example Aiden Coleman above has a lowest weight of 10-0 I don’t imagine that he put on a stone and 4 pounds when he rides one at the top of the handicap.

I think there is some profitable system buried in this research somewhere but I’m not yet sure what it is.

It may be more along the lines of laying a jockey when he has a ride at his lowest weight because when AP gets himself down to 10-2 he probably isn’t at his strongest (this is a guy who is 5′ 10″)

Also when a rider is at their lowest weight we know that that is their weight, not one that has been adjusted by the handicapper.

I’ll finish off with what I think are 3 interesting stats from the lowest weight table.

Jockey               | Lowest Rdg Wgt | Rides | Wins | P/L @ BSP | ROI BSP

AP McCoy            10-2                            8          1          -£4.84        -60.52%
P Moloney            10-0                         109       10        -£19.68       -18.05%
Jamie Moore       10-0                          132       9          -£31.61        -23.94%

If you have an opinion on this or know of any other research along similar lines please let me know in the comments below.

Today’s Selection

Ayr 4.00 Sammy Spiderman – each way bet

 

 
photo credit: BrianScott via photopin cc

A Star is Born

Kieran Ward

As promised yesterday, today we have a micro system.

This one is from our newest recruit to the editorial team at DP and that is Kieran Ward from makeyourbettingpay.co.uk

I’ll pass you onto Kieran to outline the angle he’s found and at the end I’ll list the runners for today that qualify.


I’m not normally keen on 7lb claimers. Conditional jockeys in  general lack the experience, strength and racing nous to take full advantage of their claim and that’s especially true of 7lbers (Sometimes I think most would need something  like 21lbs to offset their early inadequacies).

However, once in a while, a natural emerges fully formed and we can ride the coat tails of a young jockey who is headed right to the top.

More excitingly, decent profits can be made if we spot them ahead of the crowd.

Real value can be found in being one step ahead of the masses.

I don’t have the figures to hand but a lot of money was made by those sharp eyed enough to spot the young AP McCoy -the right jockey can make an awful lot of use of a 7lb claim when getting on the right horses.

I think I’ve spotted one such jockey.

I don’t know a great deal about Brendan Powell Jr, above and beyond the fact that he is the son of ace trainer and Grand National winning jockey Brendan Powell Sr (funnily enough).

He only started riding this year and is currently a dual purpose jock, riding under both codes. Looking at him, he’s a bit big to be riding on the flat and I think that avenue will close off to him as he fills out (he’s only 16 or 17 I think).

His record on the flat and all weather is poor and we would do well to pass over him as a punting proposition in that field.

Over the sticks things become more interesting.

As of 30-11-11 he has had 39 rides as a National Hunt Jockey and booted home 9 winners for a level stakes profit at SP of 3.7 points.

Reasonable enough I would say (particularly as profits could have been increased by taking morning prices or using Betfair).

But if we dig a little deeper into the bare figures, we can see that his best performances have come in hurdle races, producing the following numbers:

Runners

Wins

P/L at ISP

Win Strike Rate %

Place Strike Rate %

25

8

12.70pts

32.00%

44.00%

Very decent figures indeed for an inexperienced jockey – he’s clearly making full use of his claim.

When you look at his hurdle figures for the last 14 days you could be forgiven for thinking we were looking at the figures of one of the top jockeys in the country during a purple patch:

Runners

Wins

P/L at ISP

Win Strike Rate %

Place Strike Rate %

15

8

22.70 points

53.33%

66.67%

Very, very impressive and indicative (to me at least) that he is being recognised by trainers as more than value for his claim and worthy of being put atop some of their better charges.

We are only working with a small set of results here so we can’t go overboard but that’s the nature of trying to get ahead of the crowd. We have to take some things on trust and pay to find out -but I believe the sky’s the limit.

Advice- Take a long hard look at any hurdler Brendan Powell climbs aboard in the coming weeks – particularly while he still has that 7lb pull on the big boys.


Brendan has one ride today and its in a Hurdle and we will make it today’s selection.

Today’s Tip

Fontwell 3.40 Southway Star

By continuing to use the site, you agree to the use of cookies. more information

The cookie settings on this website are set to "allow cookies" to give you the best browsing experience possible. If you continue to use this website without changing your cookie settings or you click "Accept" below then you are consenting to this.

Close