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Weekend Racing Tips

Nick Hardman of Betting Insiders (https://dailypunt.com/nickhardman) keeps sending winners our way and this week he looks at today's Doncaster card and tomorrows Aintree feature…

Weekend Racing Tips

Our mud-larks ran well at Ascot last weekend with Madame Chiang being the highlight winning at 12/1.  Betfair backers would have been nicely rewarded with an SP of 18.

Not a lot of action this Friday, but I want to highlight the performance of Luca Cumani at Doncaster this season and he has a number of runners this afternoon.

We will also be taking a look at the Old Roan Chase from Aintree that takes centre stage on Saturday.

Luca Cumani is having a solid season and one track where he has done particularly well is Doncaster.  Here are his statistics at the Yorkshire course this season to date:

Runs: 21

Wins: 8

Strike rate (% win): 38%

Strike rate (% place): 62%

Profit to level £1 stakes: £13.51

On Friday he runs:

1.50pm Dreamlike

3.30pm Sleeper King @25/1 (e/w ¼ odds, 5 places)

4.05pm Norway Cross @6/1

4.40pm Kleo @5/1

Dreamlike is a 2yo and Cumani has not had a 2yo winner at the course in the last 5 seasons (0-11). 

I would not be overly concerned by that statistic as he has only had the two 2yo runners up at Doncaster this season.

Overall his juveniles are 7-34 this year at a highly respectable strike rate of 21%. 

Dreamlike made an encouraging debut and there is likely more to come.  The market could be quite informative of her chances and she could go well at a price. 

Sleeper King has failed to progress from a promising 2yo campaign and he has shown nothing in 4 starts this year (form figures 0000).  However, this is his first run for Cumani having previously been with Kevin Ryan.  Caution is advised if you decide to back him. 

Norway Cross is interesting up in trip having won at Windsor last time out and Kleo is still unexposed after two wins this season and a LTO fourth in a Listed race at Yarmouth in September.  These two appear to have the best chances of the quartet.

The jumps season is starting to gather momentum and this Saturday sees the Old Roan Chase at Aintree. 

This year’s renewal looks wide open and a case can be made for many including current favourite Uxizandre, Module, Rajdhani Express and last year’s winner Conquisto. 

At the prices I think there is a bit of value in Conquisto to retain his crown if the ground stays good. 

A lot of the higher rated horses in this race will have other targets such as the Paddy Power Gold Cup and the Cheltenham festival whereas this looks like Conquisto’s main target. 

He is 4lbs lower than when winning this last year and I think he could well have been laid out for this. 

As an each-way alternative then Astracad could outrun his price, especially as he seems to save some of his better performances for Aintree (including a decent 2nd in this last year). 

In 2013 he ran in a 2 ½ mile handicap chase at the Cheltenham October meeting a week before lining up for this.  He has followed exactly the same path this year and with the Twiston-Davies horses running well he can give each-way backers a decent run for their money. 

If the rain arrives and there is a change in the going to soft then Wishfull Thinking would have to enter calculations.  His last 3 wins have come on heavy, soft and soft going.  He is rated 162 but he won twice off this mark last season.

Saturday Aintree 3.00pm

Conquisto @7/1 (if the ground remains good)

Each-way alternatives: Astracad @14/1 & Wishfull Thinking @14/1 (soft or worse) 

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More Free Tips

As I mentioned previously I am currently away on my holidays and the posts that you have been reading were all written before I left.

So I don't know how Gary Poole's bets have been going over the past week and a half.

What I do know is that during all his long term proofing he has achieved phenomenal profits and I know that he is the real deal and it's pretty likely that he has given you some winners.

In fact in the first 5 weeks of going live with his tipping service Gary has made a whopping 169 points profit.

That means that even £10 backers have made £1,690 in 5 weeks!!!

If you would like to get more of Gary's selections for free you can add your name to his mailing list and starting in September Gary will be sending out a free tip each week to his mailing list.

Honestly I would recommend that you join his service at http://bookiesenemyno1.com but if you don't want to make that commitment then go to this page and get on his mailing list for free tips.

Here's the page

http://bookiesenemyno1.com/free-tips-from-bookies-enemy-no-1/

Today's Selection courtesy of http://bookiesenemyno1.com

7.25 Kempton:Jet Mate

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Beat The Odds and you Will Profit

Sometimes in life we need to remind ourselves of the fundamentals of whatever we are striving to be successful with in order to get our ship back on course.

With betting the biggest fundamental is value and the easiest way to make money from betting is to make your bets at odds that are better than starting price.

And beat starting price when it is adjusted down for a true market IE the prices make up a 100% chance when all possible outcomes are added up.

Starting price, especially these days with the betting exchange markets is an easy and reasonably reliable indicator of the true price/chance for any runner.

And the easiest and most efficient way to do that these days is to beat Betfair SP.

Betfair SP makes up to 100% and the prices are fair to both backers and layers.

If you can beat the Betfair SP consistently then you will make a profit.

There are tipping services that base their whole selection criteria around betting on horses that are showing signs that they will shorten in price from the morning bookie price to the starting price.

Although that is a winning strategy in itself, a better strategy is to study form and make your own selections, determine your own prices and bet where the early prices are bigger than your assessment.

That can be hard work though and you may want somebody to tell you what to bet to beat the market and if you want to be a winner without the work I would recommend Rory and David of the http://racingconsultants.co.uk

These guys are regularly beating Betfair starting price and consequently they make steady and consistent profits.

They also give a full analysis of every bet they give so you know exactly why they have made each bet.

http://racingconsultants.co.uk

Today's Selection

7.40 Windsor L´Orfeo – win bet – 2/1 Ladbrokes

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York Trends and Selections

Following on from last week's very profitable column Nick Hardman of Betting School Insiders is back with more pointers for York.

If you want to be involved with Nick's analysis of the Glorious Goodwood festival next week join Betting Insiders where he will be posting up his thoughts on the 5 day meeting.

http://bettinginsiders.com

——–

Our Kevin Ryan angle came up trumps last Friday at Hamilton with the heavily gambled Blaine winning @6/1 after being widely available at 16/1 in the morning.

Our Godolphin 2yo angle also hit the target with Efflorescence (13/2) and Good Place (4/1) finishing 1-2 at Newmarket (their only two 2yo’s entered at the course that weekend).

This week we are off to York and first stop is William Haggas who boasts a 22% strike rate at the course since 2010 and a level stakes profit of £21.84. However, it is his 3yo and 4yo handicappers who provide us with the most profit:

William Haggas (3yo and 4yo runners in handicap races at York since 2010)

William Haggas 3 - 4 yo in handicaps

He has the following entries in handicaps at York this weekend:

Muthmir – Saturday 3.30pm 6f Class 2 handicap (Skybet Dash) @11/2

Haggas is 0-5 at York this season with his 3yo and older handicappers. However, he is having a decent season with 62 winners from 240 runners (strike rate 25.83%) and has a 30% success rate with his 3 year olds (46-154).

Our second York trainer to follow is Ron Harris and he is certainly one for the each-way backers looking for bigger prices. Since 2010 he has had 5 winners from 26 runners in 3yo and older handicap races for a level stakes profit of £51.00. However, it is his place strike rate that makes most appeal at 53.85% (14-26) which boosts his level stakes profit to £89.75.

Ron Harris (3yo and older runners in handicap races at York since 2012)

Ron Harris (3yo and older runners in handicap races at York since 2012)

Ron Harris has the following handicap entries at York this weekend:

Vincentti @8/1 – Friday 6.30pm 6f handicap
Mr Dandy Man @12/1 – Friday 8.30pm 5f handicap

Finally, Brian Ellison does not have many winners at York managing just 10 since 2010. However, he does have a decent strike rate in apprentice races at the course (3-17) and has a decent chance in the opener on Friday with Top Of The Glas.

Megan Carberry takes the ride and takes off 3lbs which effectively means Top Of The Glas races off the same mark as when victorious on his stable debut.

Top Of The Glas @7/2 – Friday 6.00pm 1m apprentice handicap

If you want to be involved with Nick's analysis of the Glorious Goodwood festival next week join Betting Insiders where he will be posting up his thoughts on the 5 day meeting.

http://bettinginsiders.com

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