Tag Archives: best way

Being flexible added 8% ROI

Malcolm Pett's Wednesday column
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I have always liked to think of myself as a “Flexible” thinker.

In other words I am ready to change my opinion if I feel there is enough evidence to convince me that another way is better.

Sometimes I have to admit that I can be a little too quick to change my opinion but I suppose I would rather be that way, than to stubborn to change it at all.

Don’t get me wrong I have very strong belief’s about some things, it’s just I like to be flexible about others.

For instance I am a dog obedience and trick trainer and over the years I have learned the best way to train is “reward” based training.

It’s quick and it works and dogs respond to it well.

So I am totally against using any device or training method that causes a dog distress or harm or even looks like it could.

Sorry you won’t convince me otherwise!

But on the other hand…

I have been talking about the “Interactive” ratings that we are testing over at the Grey Horse Bot website for the last month.

I came up with a rating as 220 as being the best figure to follow.

But now on reflection and more testing I think 260 is the better number.

It’s not quite as profitable as 220 (by a very small margin) …

…But there are 3 good reasons for choosing 260

1. A higher strike rate.

2. Less selections

3. A higher Roi.

Although taking all the selections into consideration over the last 
3 months 220 has made 38.63 points, 260 has made 38.59.

Hardly anything in it…

But you would have been on fewer selections, which would have given 
you a higher strike rate and a better return on your investment.

The strike rate difference is over 4% and the ROI is 8% better.

So in this case it seems sensible to change from 220 to 260.

But that is the really good thing about this test it has allowed users to decide which rating suits them.

I do have to have a little giggle to myself though when after all I have written about these ratings I still get the question…

“What is the best rating to follow?”

Well at least I now have an answer…

If you want to follow along with the test then pop over to the Grey Horse Bot website.

Maybe you have another opinion…

It would be great to hear it.

Thanks
Malcolm

http://greyhorsebot.com

Today's Selection

14:30 Chelmsford City Indias Song – win bet – 9/4 Sky Bet

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Favourite Average Price Rise

Today we have our regular weekly column from Malcolm Pett of GreyHorseBot.com
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In the last couple or articles we have been looking at the results from an interactive test we have been doing over at the Grey Horse Bot website.

Part of this test is also to discover if it is better to be on all the selections or to stop at the first winner of the day.

I picked 220 or above as my rating figure (see later why this may still be to low).

It hasn’t been the best of weeks for this number and it was only because of a 6.3 winner a couple of days ago that we are still showing any profit for this month.

This is a bit of a shame as it was a lot more positive last week…

…But that’s racing for you.

I am a statistical type of person so I don’t like to blame the weather.

And I do know this…

Favourites average prices tend to drop slightly in the winter.

I am not sure why but it could be that there are less races so they are more heavily backed than they normally would be.

But a quick check on the averages over the last couple of years shows that from the height in the summer of 3.5 (sometimes higher) in the winter this can drop to around 3.1.

And although the strike rate of this particular system has dropped off slightly…

…The amount of favourites winning is slightly better than the norm this month.

Which again, strangely, seems to happen around the winter months.

But back to the system test…

I am still not convinced that SAW is the best way to go but it is going to take more testing to actually make that decision.

If you crank the ratings figure up to 240 then things look a little better for all selections and it may be my choice of 220 was still a little low.

This will probably be my last report about this test for a few weeks.

Unless something amazing happens!

You can see the results from this test and get the daily selections here.

Thanks
Malcolm
The Grey Horse Bot

GreyHorseBot.com

Today's Selection

2:00 Lingfield Ershaad – win bet 5/6 Bet Victor

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Strike Rate Vs Odds

Today we have a guest post from Malcolm Pett of http://greyhorsebot.com

As you are probably well aware making money from gambling is about 2 things…
Strike rate and Average winning odds.

As strike rate goes up average winning odds can come down.

You tend to end up with two choices.

Low strike rate but high odds winners. This probably represents the real value end of the scale where you are picking runners that most people think have very little chance of winning.

Most of the time they are correct but every so often one comes in…

And normally at a very good price.

The strike rate of these systems is generally between 10 and 20%.

If you run a system like this then it’s probably better to use Betfair because the odds on outsiders can often be far better than you will find at the bookies.

Look out for long losing runs because these normally spell disaster for the un-aware punter.

Then we have the high strike rate but low odds end of the spectrum.

Here you are likely to be on the first or second favourite and value is going to be a real issue.

Strike rate should be in the high 30’s but even better if you can get to 40% or more.

Keeping an eye on your average winning odds is going to be critical and you will probably have to watch the exchanges and the bookies or even use a BOG bookie to get the best prices.

Your job here will probably be to match or beat SP as often as you can.

The perfect scenario would be somewhere in between the two but it is unlikely you will find one system that will have a reasonable strike rate with value bets.

Probably the best way to achieve this would be to use “Nano” systems.

On their own these types of systems have very few selections but tend to have strike rates of 20% or more.

Combining a number of them together means you have a better chance of getting a reasonable strike rate and achieving value.

It does mean you have more systems to follow but the long term profit could be worth the effort.

Over at the Grey Horse Bot website we test all these ideas.

At the moment we have a couple of tests looking to achieve strike rates of 40% and 50%.

As already discussed you will find the prices on the winners can be quite short but it can be surprising when you get the odd higher priced winner.

We are also running long term tests on system that have a much lower strike rate.
And you can see very clearly from the results that these types of systems have long losing runs and often only get into profit because of big priced winning selections.

When you decide on what type of system(s) to follow you have to ask yourself can you take the losing runs or are you prepared to look for the best price.

Otherwise a bunch of “Nano” systems may be the best thing for you.

Thank you as always for reading I really appreciate it.

Malcolm

Malcom Pett is the creator of the Grey Horse Bot http://greyhorsebot.com

Today's Selection

6.45 Kempton Gibeon – win bet – 7/2 Bet 365

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Sire System 61% ROI

There are many ways to approach racing and winning from betting and no best way.

But you are likely to be more profitable though if you use an approach that the majority don't use.

One such approach that the man in the street tends not to pay attention to, unless it is called out by somebody in the media is betting on the influence of the sire.

But characteristics and preferences are passed from father to foal and knowing the inbred preferences of a horse can help us find winners.

So today I have the results of some research into one such angle which will hopefully identify some winners for us over the coming weeks.

The sire we are looking at today is Teofilo(IRE).

What I've targeted today is the All Weather runners of the Teofilo progeny.

With any angle the most profit will come from runs made before the horse and it's ability is exposed so we are looking at 2 and 3 year olds in their first 5 runs.

The preferred distance is 7 furlongs or 1 mile.

And we are only betting on standard going which prevails 99% of the time.

So they are the rules and the results for the last 4 years, which is when we first started seeing qualifiers is…

Runs = 82

Wins = 18

Strike Rate = 21.95%

Profit at iSP = + 50.56

Return on Investment = 61.54%

Those figures jump up if we exclude the first year. Looking at just 2012 – 2014 then there is profit in each year with an ROI of 86.93%.

These breakdown to…

2012 ROI = 96%

2013 ROI = 78%

2014 ROI = 66%

Looking at the individual courses there has been no profit at Dundalk or Wolverhampton.

Most of the runs have been at southern tracks (Lingfield, Kempton) so it may be that rather than these runners having no preference for the northern tracks it may just be a case of where the majority of the progeny are based currently.

Do you follow any sire systems or use sire influences in your selection process, if so and you'd like to share them then please add a comment.

Today's Selection

Catterick 4.20 Georgian Firebird – win bet – 4/1 Sky Bet

 

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