Tag Archives: blinkers

First Time Headgear How To?

We had a few questions yesterday asking how we find horses that are wearing headgear for the first time.

I use Horse Race Base, in their Daily Cards section there is a Shortcuts link where they list a whole host of shortcuts, one of which is 1st Time Headgear.

If you're not a Horse Race Base user then there are other places to find these horses.

In the Racing Post race cards there is a letter after the horses name that indicates the use of headgear.

Headgear –
b=blinkers,
v=visor
e/s = eyeshield
h = hood
t = tongue-strap
p = sheepskin cheekpieces.

A superior 1 denotes 1st time headgear

Here's an example from today of a horse wearing a Visor for the first time…

Visor First Time

 

At the Sporting Life it's the same format but the indicator is located after the horse's weight…

Sporting Life Visor

 

But probably the best free way to find these horses is to use the Sporting Life' Today's Pointers page which you can find in the left hand menu of the racing section.

Or go direct using this link http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/pointers

On this page they have a section for horses wearing Blinkers for the first time and also a Cheekpieces section, which lists all horses wearing cheekpieces and you can find first timers by looking for the 1 after the ‘p'.

Finally for today there is a useful page on the Racing Post that explains how to read the racecard.

Here's the link http://www.racingpost.com/horses2/cards/help.sd

Today's Selection

3:00 Southwell – Longside – Win Bet – 6/4 Bet Victor

Headgear Racing System

So last week I told you about an article over at Geegeez that put forward the idea of backing Paul Nichols runners who wear headgear for the first time.

So today I have done some research and investigated all the trainers who have been profitable in the past with their runners who were wearing headgear for the first time.

I'm looking at National Hunt only and am looking at horses who are wearing cheekpieces, blinkers or a hood for the first time.

Along the way I discovered a system with a 10,000% ROI!

Ok, I spotted a trainer who in 2014 only had one runner (Viking Rebel) who wore headgear for the first time and that runner won at 100/1.

Although that would make any system look like a winner I have not included it in my system below.

What I have got is a long list of trainers who had at least 10 runners wearing headgear for the first time from January 1st 2013 through to December 31st 2014 and who made a good profit at iSP with those runners.

Runs = 767
Wins = 127
Strike Rate = 16.56%
Profit at industry SP = 405.23
ROI = 52.83%

All the research was done on the data from 2013 and 2014 and if I run that system on 2015 so far it has already made 42 points profit in 2015.

But, here's the thing!

You could've backed every horse that wore headgear for the first time so far this year and made a profit.

I'm going to monitor this for a while and share any bets that come up on this page and then decide what to do with it once we have some live results.

There's no National Hunt racing today.

Today's Selection

3:10 Wolverhampton – Don't Be – win bet – 10/11 Paddy Power

Rory Delargy Tips (Try for a Fiver)

Rory Delargy, who I first heard on Timeform Radio and Will Hill radio, has launched his own tipping service along with fellow Will Hill regular David Massey.

Rory currently represents The Irish Field in the Racing Post Naps competition and is a regular at the top of the Naps table. (I just checked and he's currently 3rd)

The new service that Rory and David have just launched has a first month trial price of just £5 and you can take that here http://racingconsultants.co.uk/

I have shared some of their analysis and tips on this site before, and as well as giving selections and suggested stakes they also share their assessment of the race and the reason that the selections have been made.

Here's an example of one they got right last week…

4.40 Fontwell – Wor Rom 1pt e/w 15-2 Coral – Won 12/1

Fontwell – Similarly conditions are set to worsen at the Sussex venue and soft ground horses should be given utmost consideration. The 3.10 gets a mention due to the money this morning for Detour Ahead, one of three horses Warren Greatrex has got from Jennie Candish, and it will be interesting to see how he gets on today. Always had ability but it’s been difficult to unlock, and if this one wins you can expect good money for the other two when they run too. Dahteste is another that’s shown a glimmer of ability in that contest, and is another that needs keeping an eye on, having run well over C & D on rain-softened ground the time before last before disappointing again next time.

The only bet on the card comes in the shape of veteran Wor Rom in the 4.40. He’s possibly the one horse in the field you can put your finger on who won’t have any issues with this extended trip in soft ground, and the addition of first time blinkers may well rejuvenate him (has run well in cheekpieces before). With Andrew Thornton on board to bump him along, he should be staying on better than most here and ought not be out of the frame at worst.

So if you would like to try out a service from some real pro analysts at a bargain price then head over to http://racingconsultants.co.uk, I think it will be an education as well as profitable.

Today's Selection

6.05 Worcester Typhon De Guye – win bet – 11/2 Bet Victor

Northumberland Plate Trends

Today we have another example of the kind of method that does find winning and profitable racing selections.

It's been submitted to us by Dave Renham who writes a regular column for the Racing & Football Outlook Newspaper.

Dave has also recently launched a new service that you can try for just £5 called www.horseracereport.co.uk.

Today's analysis of the Northumberland Plate comes from that service…

Northumberland Plate Ten Year Trends

There is an old saying of “A leopard does not change it’s spots”

 In racing unfortunately that saying is not true 100% of the time. Shocks do indeed occur.

I however am a firm believer that it would be foolish to continually ignore key lessons history has to teach us.

Each major race during the racing calendar is an individual and unique event. Each race tends to favour horses with certain characteristics and profiles.

One major race this weekend is the Northumberland plate

Below is my ten year trends report on this race.

I hope it is of some assistance in helping you compile your own sensible shortlist of contenders.

Dave Renham

www.HorseRaceReport.co.uk

Course – Newcastle

Distance – 2 miles

Date 29th  – June 2013

Average field size last 10 years – 19

Market Trends 

Favourites (inc. joints): 2 wins from 11 for a loss of £1.50 (ROI -13.6%).
Top three in betting: 2 wins for the top three in the betting.
Top six in betting: 4 wins for the top six in the betting.
Price: Horses priced between 14/1 and 33/1 have provided 7 of the last 10 winners.

 

LTO stats 

Days since last run: 0 wins from 24 for horses returning to the track within 10 days.
Position LTO: 2 wins for horses that won LTO (from 35 runners).
Position LTO: 7 wins for horses that finished in the first three LTO from 99 runners.
Position LTO: Horses that finished 6th or worse LTO have provided just 1 winner from 55.
LTO favourites: 3 wins for horses that were favourite LTO (from 27 runners).
LTO Top three in betting: 3 wins for horses from the top three in the betting LTO (from 78 runners).
LTO Price: Horses priced between 10/1 and 16/1 LTO have provided 6 of the last 10 winners from only 47 runners. Backing all qualifiers would have produced a profit of £54.50 (ROI +116.0%).
LTO distance: Horses that raced over 1m 7f or less LTO have provided just 2 winners from 95 for a loss of £54.00 (ROI -56.8%); horses that raced over 2m 2f or more LTO have provided 5 winners from 50 for a profit of £25.50 (ROI +51%).

 

Age 

Age

Wins

Runners

SR%

Profit/loss

ROI%

3

0

1

0.0

-£1.00

-100.0

4

4

64

6.3

+£13.00

+20.3

5

0

44

0.0

-£44.00

-100.0

6

4

41

9.8

+£9.50

+23.2

7+

2

38

5.3

+£11.00

+28.9

 

Official ratings (OR) 

OR band

Wins

Runners

SR%

Profit/loss

ROI%

90 and below

4

70

5.7

+£39.00

+55.7

91-96

5

67

7.5

-£3.00

-4.5

97 and above

1

51

2.0

-£47.50

-93.1

 

 Draw

Draws

Wins

Runners

SR%

1-6

4

60

6.7

7-12

2

60

3.3

13+

4

68

5.9

 

 Breeding

Breeding

Wins

Runners

SR%

Profit/loss

ROI%

FR

1

6

16.7

-£2.50

-41.7

GB

3

87

3.4

-£29.00

-33.3

GER

1

1

100.0

+£14.00

+1400.0

IRE

4

78

5.1

+£11.00

+14.1

USA

1

14

7.1

-£3.00

-21.4

Other countries

0

2

0.0

-£2.00

-100.0

 

Class change 

Class change

Wins

Runners

SR%

Profit/loss

ROI%

Down in class

1

29

3.4

-£14.00

-48.3

Same class

7

100

7.0

+£20.50

+20.5

Up in class

2

58

3.4

-£17.00

-29.3

 

Trainer stats 

Trainers: 2 wins from 3 runners for Donald McCain.

 

General stats

Headgear (visor, cheekpieces, blinkers, etc): 1 win from 35.
Claiming jockeys: 3 wins from 23.
Recent win: 6 of the last 10 winners had won at least once in their last three starts from 92 runners. Backing all qualifiers would have produced a profit of £11.50 (ROI +12.5%).
Handicap runs: Horses who have had 5 or less handicap runs have provided 0 winners from 43 runners.
Career  wins: Horses with 2 or fewer career wins have provided just 1 winner from 55 runners for a loss of £40.00 (ROI -72.7%).

 

Conclusion – A few interesting angles for this race. Firstly higher rated runners have struggled with those rated 94 and above managing just 1 win from 79; horses rated 85 to 93 have provided 9 winners from 96. Horses stepping up in trip have struggled whereas horses dropping 2 furlongs or more in trip have performed well above the average. The top three in the betting have performed well below the norm despite a winning favourite last year, while the 14/1 to 33/1 price bracket has actually yielded a 10 year profit if backing all runners from that band. LTO market factors have also favoured slightly higher prices with the LTO price bracket of 10/1 to 16/1 doing especially well. Age wise there is no clear pattern.

Dave Renham

Dave Renham writes a regular horse racing research column for the Racing & Football Outlook Newspaper. He also runs www.HorseRaceReport.co.uk which offers both free and  a  low cost paid for options to people interested in researched racing advice.

Today's Selection

2:30:00 Doncaster 5 Inyordreams – each way bet – 9/1 Will Hill, Bet Victor

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