Tag Archives: bookie price

Beat The Odds and you Will Profit

Sometimes in life we need to remind ourselves of the fundamentals of whatever we are striving to be successful with in order to get our ship back on course.

With betting the biggest fundamental is value and the easiest way to make money from betting is to make your bets at odds that are better than starting price.

And beat starting price when it is adjusted down for a true market IE the prices make up a 100% chance when all possible outcomes are added up.

Starting price, especially these days with the betting exchange markets is an easy and reasonably reliable indicator of the true price/chance for any runner.

And the easiest and most efficient way to do that these days is to beat Betfair SP.

Betfair SP makes up to 100% and the prices are fair to both backers and layers.

If you can beat the Betfair SP consistently then you will make a profit.

There are tipping services that base their whole selection criteria around betting on horses that are showing signs that they will shorten in price from the morning bookie price to the starting price.

Although that is a winning strategy in itself, a better strategy is to study form and make your own selections, determine your own prices and bet where the early prices are bigger than your assessment.

That can be hard work though and you may want somebody to tell you what to bet to beat the market and if you want to be a winner without the work I would recommend Rory and David of the http://racingconsultants.co.uk

These guys are regularly beating Betfair starting price and consequently they make steady and consistent profits.

They also give a full analysis of every bet they give so you know exactly why they have made each bet.

http://racingconsultants.co.uk

Today's Selection

7.40 Windsor L´Orfeo – win bet – 2/1 Ladbrokes

Cheltenham Day 3

Double odds on Annie Power.

It's Girls versus Boys today in the big race at 3.20 with Annie Power justifiably favourite and Big Bucks definitely second with the bookies.

If you believe this is a match, as many pundits do, and you can't split them, then the bet must be to take advantage of the money back if Annie wins, mustn't it?

Paddy Power are money back if the SP favourite wins any race (up to £100)

Betfair Sportsbook and Betfred go with the same offer up to £25.

But if you're confident that Annie has the Power then Betfred‘s double SP offer is the one to go for.

If Annie Power wins by over 4 lengths then Betfred will pay double odds. To get this you have to place an SP bet and they will double the SP odds on your return for the first £500 of your stake.

Of course if you don't care who wins you could back any other horse with Paddy Power and lay it off at Betfair, for a small loss whatever the outcome, and if Annie Power wins you will get your stake back at Paddy giving a big profit.

If Annie doesnt win then you make a small loss on the margin between Betfair and bookie prices.

In fact you could do that on every race, and every time a favourite wins you would be a winner.

Today's Selection

Cheltenham 3.20 Annie Power – win bet – Take SP with Betfred

Value Betting System

I have been talking recently to a guy who started his betting career on a serious basis a few years ago. And by serious I mean he had to live off of the money he won.

He told me about the method that he used to find his value bets, which required no form study, and essentially was just comparing prices between bookmakers and Betfair.

This is a method I've heard about before and I've now done a bit of research for this article.

Basically the theory goes something like this…

1. Betfair odds represent the true chance of a horse winning (Wisdom of Crowds etc)

2. If you can get better odds from a bookmaker than the Betfair odds you have value.

3. When you find such a bet you either back with the bookie and lay off at Betfair for a guaranteed profit or just back the horse with the bookie because it is a value bet and you will win in the long run.

So I'm sure that has raised two questions in your mind, how profitable is it and how hard is it to find the selections.

Let's start with finding the selections, basically all this requires is to scan though the cards at Oddschecker looking for horses that have a bigger bookies price than the Betfair price.

Then clicking through to Betfair to see if you can lay the selection at shorter odds than the bookie price. If you can then place the bet with the bookie and either lay it or not at Betfair depending on which strategy you are using.

While looking for some data to confirm that this is still a profitable strategy I came across a tool that will find the bets for you and this tool has a results page showing results going back three years. Here's a screenshot for 2012.

Racing Synergy results

You can click here to get the full breakdown on Bet Synergy.

If you've used this method, this software or anything similar do let me know in the comments.

Today's Selection

Southwell 4.05 Burgoyne – win bet – 2/1 Bet365

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